FranceBrest - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Michael Geerts #347Belgium2Leo Raquillet #682France0

Sets 6-0 · 6-1Sun 25 Oct 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMichael Geerts · 335 places

Michael Geerts

Belgium

Reached a career-high No. 212 on 3 April 2023. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #347
Peak ranking: #212 · 2023
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Leo Raquillet

France

Raquillet is a 20-year-old French right-hander. His ATP career high of No. 634 was recorded in May 2026; available results show more 2026 wins on hard courts than clay, but this is not sufficient to label a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #682
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 09:29 · Europe/Bucharest

A 335-place ranking gap says Michael Geerts should get past Leo Raquillet in Brest qualifying, but both arrive on ordinary indoor-hard form and Geerts has lost four of his last six completed matches.

Geerts is still the more likely winner. The 1.44 on him asks for more than the evidence justifies, and 2.60 on Raquillet is no better — no quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

This establishes that the fixture is a qualifying-round match rather than a main-draw meeting. It frames the immediate tournament stake for both players and places the match at Brest Arena. The available information does not provide player-specific preparation, availability, or court-condition context.
- The first qualifying-round match is scheduled for on Center Court.
- Brest Arena in Brest is listed as the venue.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 09:27 · Europe/BucharestTennis.comwww.tennis.com · 25 Oct 2026NB-Betnb-bet.com · 25 Oct 2026
His hard-court scorelines were split between two 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, three 0-2 losses and two 1-2 losses. That mix suggests sets that stay tight rather than lopsided margins. The sample is nine matches over roughly ten weeks, so it sets an expectation rather than a firm pattern.
- Nine completed hard-court matches, 20 July to 30 September 2026.
- Four of nine went to a third set; five of nine included at least one tiebreak.
- Scorelines: two 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, three 0-2 losses, two 1-2 losses.
The first set went by without a game, and Raquillet managed three in the second. Against the higher-ranked Geerts, that result illustrates how fast his service games can go against a solid returner. It is one match rather than a trend, but it is the freshest evidence in his record.
- Match date 12 October 2026, hard court, versus Mathys Erhard (ranking 354).
- Sets: 0-6, 3-6; three games won, twelve lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Michael Geerts

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

−7.4ppshort

Geerts is much higher ranked and has slightly better hard-court points and games numbers, giving him the clearer route to a win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Geerts is much higher ranked and has slightly better hard-court points and games numbers, giving him the clearer route to a win.
- Geerts is ranked 347; Raquillet is ranked 682.
- On hard courts Geerts has won 48.0% of total points and 45.7% of games; Raquillet 46.4% and 42.1%.
- Hard-court record in the sample: Geerts 4-5, Raquillet 2-4.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMichael GeertsEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Geerts' hard matches average 24.6 total games and Raquillet's 20.2, putting the combined expectation near the line.
- Geerts' hard matches average 24.6 total games.
- Raquillet's hard matches average 20.2 total games.
- The combined weighted average is about 22.8 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nine of the combined 15 hard matches finished in straight sets, and Raquillet's matches have been shorter.
- Nine of the combined 15 hard matches finished in straight sets.
- Geerts went to a third set in four of nine; Raquillet in two of six.
- Raquillet's hard matches average 2.33 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Geerts won the first set more often than Raquillet in their hard-court samples and has the slightly better first-set games numbers.
- Geerts won the first set in four of nine hard matches.
- Raquillet won the first set in two of six hard matches.
- Geerts averages 4.7 first-set games won to 5.7 lost; Raquillet 3.0 to 4.8.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMichael GeertsEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Raquillet had no tiebreaks in six hard matches and his matches have generally been short.
- Raquillet had no tiebreak in six hard matches.
- Raquillet's hard matches average 20.2 total games.
- Geerts had a tiebreak in five of nine hard matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Geerts averages 5.1 aces per hard match and Raquillet 1.2, putting the combined total near the line.
- Geerts averages 5.1 aces per hard match.
- Raquillet averages 1.2 aces per hard match.
- Geerts has 46 aces across nine hard matches; Raquillet 7 across six.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Michael Geerts

7W 8L

6-4 6-1#390Pavel Lagutin

6-4 6-1#209Edas Butvilas

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#578Joao Domingues

7-6(3) 6-2#498Vladyslav Orlov

6-4 7-5#325Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-3 6-4#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-7(5) 6-3 7-5#318Lucas Poullain

4-6 6-4 6-4#560Radu Albot

6-3 7-6(6)—Billy Blaydes

2-6 6-2 6-4—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-4 6-4#446Geoffrey Blancaneaux

7-5 6-3#824Nicolas Robert

6-3 6-2#551Martin Van Der Meerschen

6-7(9) 6-2 6-2#465Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#280Yi Zhou

Leo Raquillet

6W 9L

6-0 6-3#354Mathys Erhard

4-6 6-4 6-4#464Adrian Boitan

6-1 6-4#527Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-1 6-3#527Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-2 6-2#707Matteo Covato

6-3 4-6 6-4—Lenny Couturier

6-0 6-2—Matis Roche

6-3 2-6 7-5#497Benjamin Hassan

4-6 6-3 6-0—Adrien Berrut

3-6 6-0 7-5#787Oskari Paldanius

3-6 6-3 6-4#285Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(2) 6-4#192Jan Kumstat

6-3 4-6 6-2#231Lorenzo Giustino

3-6 6-4 6-3#706Franco Ribero

6-2 6-1#867Tomohiro Masabayashi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MGMichael GeertsGeerts

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Leo RaquilletRaquilletLR

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In53.2%+12.9pp66.1%

1st Serve Won69.6%+5.1pp64.5%

2nd Serve Won48.7%+5.0pp43.7%

Aces / Match3.7+2.11.6

Double Faults / Match3.91.2 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.5%+3.3pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.2%+9.1pp52.3%

Break Pts Saved56.2%+5.4pp50.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won48.9%—49.6%

Serve · 3–2

53.2%1st Serve In+12.9pp66.1%

69.6%1st Serve Won+5.1pp64.5%

48.7%2nd Serve Won+5.0pp43.7%

3.7Aces / Match+2.11.6

3.9Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

38.5%Return Pts Won+3.3pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

43.2%Break Pts Converted+9.1pp52.3%

56.2%Break Pts Saved+5.4pp50.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.9%Total Pts Won—49.6%