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Predictions graded

Kaitlin Quevedo #79Spain2Sofia Kenin #126United States1

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 6-4Tue 27 Oct 2026, 03:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKaitlin Quevedo · 47 places

Kaitlin Quevedo

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 94 in August 2026. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface; her ranking improved from No. 144 at the end of 2025.

Current ranking: #79
Peak ranking: #94 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Sofia Kenin

United States

Reached a career-high No. 4 in March 2020. The ITF lists hard courts as her preferred surface; no verified active fitness issue in the requested recent-search window was found.

Current ranking: #126
Peak ranking: #4 · 2020
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Quevedo arrives 7-4 on hard with five wins in her last six; Kenin is 3-9 on hard and has lost four of five, so the first round points to a Quevedo win.

At 1.85 that is worth taking, and Quevedo 2-0 at 2.9 and either set at 1.8 hold up too; three sets at 2.3 is a slimmer case. Fewer than 22.5 games at 1.7 does not.

Context

Her first serve lands 63.2% of the time and wins 63.1% of points, so the second delivery is the more vulnerable part of her service games.
Quevedo has no published return numbers in this sample, so the practical read is that Kenin's second serve is the clearest route to break chances, and 4.1 double faults per match hands over free points in tight sets.
- Kenin won 41.6% of second-serve points (158 of 380) across 15 matches in the last-15 sample.
- She averaged 4.1 double faults per match (61 in 15 matches).
- First serve in 63.2% and first-serve points won 63.1% over the same 15 matches.
- The last-15 aggregate does not carry a date window in the supplied record.
Her match record in the same window is 3-9, so the slow starts sit alongside the results rather than apart from them.
Coming from behind is the pattern in this sample, and six of those 12 matches ended 0-2. Quevedo's own first-set record is 5-6, so the opening set is a real contest rather than a formality.
- Kenin's hard-court first-set record is 3-9 across 12 matches (27 July–20 October 2026).
- She averaged 3.42 games won and 5.42 games lost in first sets.
- Second sets: 4-8, with 4.33 games won against 5.00 games lost.
- Six of her 12 hard-court matches finished 0-2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Quevedo has the better hard-court record and clearly stronger recent results.
- Quevedo is 7-4 on hard in this sample; Kenin is 3-9.
- Quevedo has won five of her last six completed matches; Kenin has lost four of her last five.
- On hard, Quevedo has won 5 of 11 first sets and 6 of 11 second sets; Kenin has won 3 of 12 and 4 of 12.
- Quevedo is ranked 79; Kenin is ranked 126.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKaitlin QuevedoEstimated chance73%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Quevedo's recent hard-court wins have often come by enough games for the -2.5 line.
- Quevedo's six listed completed hard matches have game margins -5, +4, 0, +5, +9 and +10.
- The -2.5 line is met in four of those six matches.
- Kenin's hard game record is 116-148.
- Quevedo is 7-4 on hard; Kenin is 3-9.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKaitlin Quevedo -2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Quevedo's straight-set wins have often been short, making under 22.5 slightly more likely.
- Quevedo's hard matches average 22.9 total games; Kenin's average 22.0.
- Quevedo's three 2-0 wins had game totals of 19, 15 and 14.
- Kenin has lost 0-2 six times on hard.
- Quevedo's latest match had 21 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Quevedo has won more second sets than she has lost and holds the better overall hard-court record.
- Quevedo has won 6 of 11 second sets on hard; Kenin has won 4 of 12.
- Quevedo's second-set game average is 4.64 won and 4.18 lost; Kenin's is 4.33 won and 5.00 lost.
- Quevedo has won 7 of 11 hard matches.
- Kenin has lost four of her last five completed matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostKaitlin QuevedoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Quevedo has the stronger hard-court match record and a better first-set game difference.
- Quevedo has won 5 of 11 first sets on hard; Kenin has won 3 of 12.
- Quevedo has won 7 of 11 hard matches; Kenin has won 3 of 12.
- Quevedo's first-set game average is 4.91 won and 4.64 lost; Kenin's is 3.42 won and 5.42 lost.
- Kenin lost her latest match 0-2.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKaitlin QuevedoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches have finished in straight sets more often than not.
- Quevedo's hard matches have gone 2-0 or 0-2 six times in 11.
- Kenin's hard matches have gone 2-0 or 0-2 seven times in 12.
- Quevedo averages 2.45 sets per hard match; Kenin averages 2.42.
- Kenin has lost 0-2 six times on hard.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these recent hard-court sets have been decided without a tiebreak.
- Quevedo has one tiebreak in 11 hard matches; Kenin has three in 12.
- Quevedo's first and second sets have no tiebreaks in 11 hard matches.
- Kenin's first sets have one tiebreak in 12; her second sets have two in 12.
- Both players' hard matches average fewer than 23 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance75%

Prediction history

Kaitlin Quevedo: 11/13 recent winner projections matched

11 of 13 comparable winner projections favouring Kaitlin Quevedo matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Kaitlin Quevedo13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#103Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#200Carole Monnet

BetBugsKaitlin Quevedo to win·72%

Matched

31 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#103Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#200Carole Monnet

Kaitlin Quevedo to win

72%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Matched

27 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#103Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#892Irina Fetecau

BetBugsKaitlin Quevedo to win·72%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#103Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#892Irina Fetecau

Kaitlin Quevedo to win

72%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Matched

8 Jul·WTA Bastad

#219Kajsa Rinaldo Persson1-2#107Kaitlin Quevedo

BetBugsKaitlin Quevedo to win·62%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

WTA Bastad

#219Kajsa Rinaldo Persson1-2#107Kaitlin Quevedo

Kaitlin Quevedo to win

62%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Matched

6 Jul·WTA Bastad

#745Tiana Tian Deng0-2#107Kaitlin Quevedo

BetBugsKaitlin Quevedo to win·78%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

WTA Bastad

#745Tiana Tian Deng0-2#107Kaitlin Quevedo

Kaitlin Quevedo to win

78%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#106Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#685Sayaka Ishii

BetBugsKaitlin Quevedo to win·78%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#106Kaitlin Quevedo2-0#685Sayaka Ishii

Kaitlin Quevedo to win

78%probability

Kaitlin Quevedo won

Matched

Kaitlin Quevedo

10W 5L

7-5 6-3#53Lanlana Tararudee

4-6 6-4 6-2#205Nadia Podoroska

6-4 2-6 6-4#72Anna Blinkova

6-3 6-4#144Teodora Kostovic

6-2 6-1#607Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva

6-0 6-2#261Anastasia Tikhonova

7-5 6-1#95Claire Liu

5-7 7-5 6-1#170Sara Sorribes Tormo

6-3 4-6 7-5#386Anna Sinclair Rogers

6-4 6-4#15Elise Mertens

6-1 0-6 7-6(5)#585Ekaterina Ovcharenko

2-6 6-3 6-1#116Laura Samson

7-6(5) ret.#99Francesca Jones

7-6(4) 6-3#206Carole Monnet

7-5 6-1#213Irene Burillo

Sofia Kenin

4W 11L

6-3 6-2#119Kayla Day

7-6(4) 6-4#76Sinja Kraus

2-6 6-0 6-1#256Mei Yamaguchi

6-0 6-3#67Kamilla Rakhimova

6-3 6-3#55Ashlyn Krueger

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#97Alina Charaeva

6-3 6-1#4Jessica Pegula

6-2 7-6(6)#599Venus Williams

4-6 6-3 7-5#10Marta Kostyuk

1-6 6-3 6-3#137Eva Lys

7-5 1-6 6-2#107Lucrezia Stefanini

6-0 7-5#28Emma Navarro

6-2 4-6 7-6(3)#18Amanda Anisimova

7-6(4) 6-4#78Petra Marcinko

6-3 6-1#40Daria Snigur

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KQKaitlin QuevedoQuevedo

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Sofia KeninKeninSK

Kaitlin Quevedo carries the stronger recent form — Sofia Kenin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In56.8%+6.4pp63.2%

1st Serve Won64.7%+1.6pp63.1%

2nd Serve Won49.2%+7.6pp41.6%

Aces / Match1.8+0.51.3

Double Faults / Match3.80.3 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.9%+5.3pp40.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.0%+11.0pp39.0%

Break Pts Saved59.0%+8.2pp50.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.1%+4.6pp47.5%

Serve · 4–1

56.8%1st Serve In+6.4pp63.2%

64.7%1st Serve Won+1.6pp63.1%

49.2%2nd Serve Won+7.6pp41.6%

1.8Aces / Match+0.51.3

3.8Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

45.9%Return Pts Won+5.3pp40.6%

Pressure · 2–0

50.0%Break Pts Converted+11.0pp39.0%

59.0%Break Pts Saved+8.2pp50.8%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won+4.6pp47.5%

Kaitlin Quevedo #79Spain2Sofia Kenin #126United States1

Player Profiles

Kaitlin Quevedo

Sofia Kenin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kaitlin Quevedo

Kaitlin Quevedo

Kaitlin Quevedo

Over 2.5

Kaitlin Quevedo 2-0

Under 22.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Kaitlin Quevedo: 11/13 recent winner projections matched

Kaitlin Quevedo

Sofia Kenin

Stat Battle