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Predictions graded

Carole Monnet #206France2Leolia Jeanjean #92France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-1Tue 27 Oct 2026, 19:25 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions0–10%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLeolia Jeanjean · 114 places

Carole Monnet

France

French player, born 1 December 2001, with a WTA-listed career-high singles ranking of No. 158 in November 2025. The ITF profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current fitness concern surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #206
Peak ranking: #158
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Leolia Jeanjean

France

French right-hander born in August 1995. Her career-high singles ranking was No. 91 in August 2025, and the ITF player profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current, reliably sourced injury or withdrawal signal was returned in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #92
Peak ranking: #91 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 03:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranking says Jeanjean, the clay record says slow down: Monnet is 3-2 on clay this autumn while Jeanjean has no clay matches in the sample.

Jeanjean is the likely winner, but at 1.33 the price asks for about 75 per cent and her case does not reach that, so there is nothing worth backing here.

Context

Monnet's clay matches this autumn have been compact, low-margin affairs rather than blowouts either way.
Three of those five matches finished 2-0 in her favour and two finished 0-2 against her, with two of the five containing a tiebreak. The pattern suggests her clay results are decided by small margins in the opening set rather than by lopsided scoring, which matters against a higher-ranked opponent whose surface form is unknown.
- Five completed clay matches, 28 July to 14 October 2026: 3 wins, 2 losses.
- Set 1 average 5.4 games won, 4.4 lost; set 2 average 4.8 won, 4.4 lost.
- Total games average 19 per match; two of five matches contained a tiebreak.
Jeanjean has played a heavy, lengthy run of matches, and her serve has produced more free points lost than gained.
She has won 57.4% of first-serve points and 62.3% of points behind the first serve, but the double-fault rate of 4.5 per match gives opponents regular openings. Over matches lasting around two and a quarter hours on average, that serving profile is the part of her game most exposed if the clay slows the ball and lengthens rallies.
- 15 completed matches tracked, latest 7 October 2026; average duration 134 minutes.
- 4.5 double faults and 2.3 aces per match across those 15 matches.
- First serve in 57.4%; first-serve points won 62.3%; total points won 50.5%.
Jeanjean arrives with a strong overall record but no clay sample to test it against.
Her ranking of No. 92 and 10 wins from 15 completed matches are hard-court results, and nothing in the record shows how that level transfers to clay. Monnet, by contrast, has five completed clay matches this autumn. The gap in evidence is a limit on how confidently the ranking advantage can be read, not proof that Jeanjean will struggle.
- Jeanjean current-surface record: 0 matches tracked on clay.
- Jeanjean set evidence for clay: 0 matches tracked, no earliest or latest match date.
- Overall record of 10 wins and 5 losses from 15 completed matches, latest 7 October 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Leolia Jeanjean

1.33fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 75.2%

−13.2ppshort

Jeanjean's higher ranking and stronger overall recent record make her the clearer favourite, even without clay evidence.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Jeanjean's higher ranking and stronger overall recent record make her the clearer favourite, even without clay evidence.
- Jeanjean is ranked 92, 114 places above Monnet.
- Jeanjean has won 10 of her last 15 completed matches and 51.5% of games in that window.
- Jeanjean has no completed clay matches in the supplied current-surface sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLeolia JeanjeanEstimated chance62%

Prediction history

Leolia Jeanjean: 7/7 recent winner projections matched

7 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Leolia Jeanjean matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Leolia Jeanjean7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

10 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#132Leolia Jeanjean2-1#229Alice Tubello

BetBugsLeolia Jeanjean to win·62%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#132Leolia Jeanjean2-1#229Alice Tubello

Leolia Jeanjean to win

62%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Matched

7 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#318Amandine Monnot0-2#132Leolia Jeanjean

BetBugsLeolia Jeanjean to win·78%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#318Amandine Monnot0-2#132Leolia Jeanjean

Leolia Jeanjean to win

78%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#87Veronika Erjavec1-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

BetBugsLeolia Jeanjean to win·58%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#87Veronika Erjavec1-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

Leolia Jeanjean to win

58%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#219Ekaterine Gorgodze0-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

BetBugsLeolia Jeanjean to win·65%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#219Ekaterine Gorgodze0-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

Leolia Jeanjean to win

65%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#179Xiaodi You1-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

BetBugsLeolia Jeanjean to win·62%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#179Xiaodi You1-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

Leolia Jeanjean to win

62%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Matched

Carole Monnet

6W 9L

6-3 5-7 6-1#181Lucie Havlickova

6-2 6-2#142Elizara Yaneva

6-2 6-2#475Daria Yesypchuk

7-5 6-4#107Lucrezia Stefanini

2-6 6-3 7-6(5)#438Cagla Buyukakcay

6-2 6-1#202Anastasia Gasanova

6-1 7-6(4)#209Fiona Crawley

6-4 7-6(5)#118Sloane Stephens

7-6(6) 6-7(4) 6-2#279Katrina Scott

7-5 6-2#848Julia Garcia

6-4 7-6(4)#233Anouk Koevermans

7-6(4) 6-3#79Kaitlin Quevedo

7-6(1) 7-5#322Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-1 6-3#377Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-3 3-1 ret.#350Jessica Pieri

Leolia Jeanjean

10W 5L

6-3 6-1#339Mariam Bolkvadze

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#255Lois Boisson

4-6 6-1 6-3#91Antonia Ruzic

6-4 1-6 6-1#107Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 7-5 6-4#581Melisa Ercan

4-6 6-3 6-2#245Suzan Lamens

6-2 6-4#95Claire Liu

6-1 7-6(4)#161Carol Young Suh Lee

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#228Julieta Pareja

6-2 7-6(3)#312Carolina Meligeni Alves

6-4 2-6 6-3#27Anastasia Potapova

7-6(6) 6-2#263Arantxa Rus

6-4 4-6 6-2#67Kamilla Rakhimova

6-2 6-4#107Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 6-3 6-2#115Himeno Sakatsume

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CMCarole MonnetMonnet

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Leolia JeanjeanJeanjeanLJ

Leolia Jeanjean carries the stronger recent form — Carole Monnet's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In66.1%+8.7pp57.4%

1st Serve Won55.6%+6.7pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won35.4%+11.2pp46.6%

Aces / Match1.3+1.02.3

Double Faults / Match5.91.4 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.5%+3.9pp45.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted51.3%+8.9pp42.4%

Break Pts Saved50.0%+2.2pp52.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+1.4pp50.5%

Serve · 1–4

66.1%1st Serve In+8.7pp57.4%

55.6%1st Serve Won+6.7pp62.3%

35.4%2nd Serve Won+11.2pp46.6%

1.3Aces / Match+1.02.3

5.9Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

49.5%Return Pts Won+3.9pp45.6%

Pressure · 1–1

51.3%Break Pts Converted+8.9pp42.4%

50.0%Break Pts Saved+2.2pp52.2%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+1.4pp50.5%