EcuadorGuayaquil - EcuadorFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Ryan Nijboer #383Netherlands0Lorenzo Claverie #875Venezuela2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRyan Nijboer · 492 places

Ryan Nijboer

Netherlands

Dutch player born 28 July 1999. ITF records his preferred surface as hard and a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 371 in August 2024.

Current ranking: #383
Peak ranking: #371 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Lorenzo Claverie

Venezuela

Structured player data lists Claverie at No. 877, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 196 cm.

Current ranking: #875
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:05 · Europe/Bucharest

A 383-versus-875 ranking gap says Nijboer should win; Claverie's clay serving says otherwise.

Nijboer is the marginal favourite, but the better-priced routes are on the lower-ranked man: Claverie at 3.8 to win the match and 3.2 to take the opening set both offer value, while Nijboer at 1.22 and 1.3 asks for more than his form justifies.

Context

Claverie's clay sets have run long, with five first-set and five second-set tiebreaks in the 10-match sample.
His first sets averaged 11.6 total games and his second sets 11.8, so tight sets have been routine. Nijboer's 14 clay matches produced only two tiebreaks in total, which makes the opening set the likelier place for a long one here. A 10-match sample describes a tendency, not a settled pattern, and no tiebreak is guaranteed either way.
- Claverie's 10 tracked clay matches (5 July to 25 October 2026) included six with a tiebreak.
- His first sets averaged 11.6 total games and his second sets 11.8.
- Five first-set and five second-set tiebreaks across those 10 matches.
Nijboer's first-set record is clearly the stronger half of his clay sample.
He has averaged 5.5 games won against 4.1 lost in first sets, dropping to 4.8 won against 4.4 lost in second sets. Nine of those 14 matches were decided in straight sets, six of them 2-0 wins for Nijboer. The window covers one month and one retirement was excluded, so the split is a small-sample observation rather than a stable profile.
- Nijboer's 14 tracked clay matches (12 September to 12 October 2026) produced a 10-4 first-set record and a 7-7 second-set record.
- His first sets averaged 5.5 games won and 4.1 lost; second sets 4.8 won and 4.4 lost.
- Six of his 14 clay matches finished as 2-0 wins, three as 2-1 wins, three as 0-2 losses and two as 1-2 losses.
The entry assigns the fixture to Guayaquil's qualifying round of 16 on clay. That identifies this as a qualifying-stage contest rather than a main-draw fixture. Advancement from the qualification bracket is the immediate tournament stake.
- The listing places the match in Guayaquil's qualifying round of 16 on clay.
ReportedSources checked 26 Oct 2026, 03:03 · Europe/BucharestTennis Explorerwww.tennisexplorer.com · 26 Oct 2026
No prior direct meeting is listed before Guayaquil. The encounter is therefore a new pairing rather than a rematch with match-specific history. This is background context, not a form or fitness signal.
- No previous meeting between the two players is listed before this match.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Oct 2026, 03:03 · Europe/BucharestTennis Explorerwww.tennisexplorer.com · 26 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nijboer's higher ranking and solid clay record give him a narrow edge, but Claverie's serve keeps the match close.
- Nijboer is ranked 383 and Claverie 875; no prior meeting is listed.
- Nijboer is 9-5 in his tracked clay matches, while Claverie is 7-3 on current clay.
- Nijboer's clay set records are 10-4 in set one and 7-7 in set two.
- Claverie's clay serve numbers are 79.4% first-serve points won and 80.8% break points saved.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRyan NijboerEstimated chance54%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Claverie's first sets regularly pass nine games, lifting the over despite Nijboer's shorter sets.
- Claverie's clay first sets average 11.6 total games; Nijboer's 9.57.
- Claverie had five first-set tiebreaks in 10 clay matches.
- Nijboer's first-set games average 5.5 won and 4.1 lost.
- Nijboer had no first-set tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Claverie's longer second sets make the over slightly more likely than not.
- Claverie's clay second sets average 11.8 total games; Nijboer's 9.21.
- Claverie had five second-set tiebreaks in 10 clay matches.
- Nijboer's second-set games average 4.8 won and 4.4 lost.
- Nijboer had one second-set tiebreak in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Claverie's longer, tiebreak-heavy clay matches tilt the total slightly over.
- Claverie's clay matches average 25.0 total games; Nijboer's average 22.4.
- Claverie had a tiebreak in 6 of 10 clay matches; Nijboer in 2 of 14.
- Claverie's average clay set totals are 11.6 in set one and 11.8 in set two.
- Nijboer's clay matches average 2.36 sets; Claverie's average 2.20.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' clay matches finished in two sets, making under the favoured side.
- Nijboer played straight sets in 9 of 14 clay matches; Claverie in 8 of 10.
- Nijboer's average clay match lasted 2.36 sets; Claverie's 2.20.
- Claverie's scorelines are five 2-0, three 0-2 and two 2-1.
- Nijboer's scorelines are six 2-0, three 0-2, three 2-1 and two 1-2.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nijboer's slightly better first-set record gives him a narrow edge in a close opening set.
- Nijboer is 10-4 in clay first sets; Claverie is 7-3.
- Nijboer's first-set games average 5.5 won and 4.1 lost; Claverie's 6.0 and 5.6.
- Claverie has had five first-set tiebreaks in 10 clay matches; Nijboer none in 14.
- Both players have won about 70% of clay first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRyan NijboerEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-set records are level, so Nijboer's small overall match edge only slightly lifts him.
- Nijboer is 7-7 in clay second sets; Claverie is 5-5.
- Nijboer's second-set games average 4.8 won and 4.4 lost; Claverie's 5.8 and 6.0.
- Claverie has five second-set tiebreaks in 10 clay matches.
- Nijboer's clay second sets include one tiebreak in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostRyan NijboerEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nijboer's low tiebreak rate makes a match without a tiebreak the more likely outcome.
- Nijboer had a tiebreak in 2 of 14 clay matches; Claverie in 6 of 10.
- Nijboer had no first-set tiebreaks and one second-set tiebreak in 14 clay matches.
- Claverie's clay set-one and set-two tiebreak counts are each five in 10 matches.
- Nijboer's clay sets average 9.57 and 9.21 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Prediction history

Ryan Nijboer: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Ryan Nijboer matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Ryan Nijboer4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

17 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#488Ryan Nijboer0-2#231Guy Den Ouden

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·55%

Missed

17 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#488Ryan Nijboer0-2#231Guy Den Ouden

Ryan Nijboer to win

55%probability

Guy Den Ouden won

Missed

16 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#453Niels Visker0-2#488Ryan Nijboer

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·58%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#453Niels Visker0-2#488Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer to win

58%probability

Ryan Nijboer won

Matched

14 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#414Mika Brunold1-2#488Ryan Nijboer

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·60%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#414Mika Brunold1-2#488Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer to win

60%probability

Ryan Nijboer won

Matched

12 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#725Amit Vales0-2#501Ryan Nijboer

BetBugsRyan Nijboer to win·65%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#725Amit Vales0-2#501Ryan Nijboer

Ryan Nijboer to win

65%probability

Ryan Nijboer won

Matched

Previous match context available

Ryan Nijboer

10W 5L

7-6(6) 1-0 ret.#831Mariano Kestelboim

5-7 7-6(5) 7-5#497Benjamin Hassan

6-3 6-2#610Javier Barranco Cosano

6-3 6-3#226Marvin Moeller

6-1 4-6 6-3#229Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-3 6-3#497Benjamin Hassan

5-7 7-5 6-1#737Nico Hipfl

7-5 6-1#483Alexander Ritschard

6-4 3-6 7-6(3)—Nicolas Ifi

6-3 6-2#562Pierre Delage

6-2 6-3—Cedric Stanke

6-3 6-4#329Francesco Forti

4-6 6-3 6-4#590Alejandro Juan Mano

6-3 6-3#878Iannis Miletich

6-3 6-1#451Sander Jong

Lorenzo Claverie

7W 8L

7-6(5) 6-4#669Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-2 6-4#396Felipe Meligeni Alves

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#819Mwendwa Mbithi

7-5 7-5#896Mauricio Echazu

6-4 4-6 6-2#402Ozan Baris

6-4 6-1#669Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(2)#466Miguel Tobon

7-6(1) 6-3#200Tristan Boyer

4-6 6-4 7-6(6)#700Bruno Kuzuhara

7-5 7-5#265Matias Soto

7-6(5) 7-6(6)#198Facundo Mena

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#297Nick Hardt

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-1#627Samuel Heredia

6-4 3-6 6-3—Christopher Papa

6-3 7-6(3)#687Daniel Antonio Nunez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RNRyan NijboerNijboer

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Lorenzo ClaverieClaverieLC

Lorenzo Claverie carries the stronger recent form — Ryan Nijboer's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In61.6%+1.3pp62.9%

1st Serve Won70.0%+7.4pp77.4%

2nd Serve Won48.4%+0.9pp49.3%

Aces / Match3.3+8.111.4

Double Faults / Match3.50.6 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.3%+13.4pp29.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.1%+2.4pp41.5%

Break Pts Saved64.0%+8.7pp72.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+3.1pp49.2%

Serve · 1–4

61.6%1st Serve In+1.3pp62.9%

70.0%1st Serve Won+7.4pp77.4%

48.4%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp49.3%

3.3Aces / Match+8.111.4

3.5Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

43.3%Return Pts Won+13.4pp29.9%

Pressure · 0–2

39.1%Break Pts Converted+2.4pp41.5%

64.0%Break Pts Saved+8.7pp72.7%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+3.1pp49.2%