EcuadorGuayaquil - EcuadorRET

Predictions graded

Ryan Nijboer #383Netherlands2Mariano Kestelboim #831Argentina0

Sets 7-6 · 1-0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions2–167%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRyan Nijboer · 448 places

Ryan Nijboer

Netherlands

Dutch player born 28 July 1999. ITF records his preferred surface as hard and a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 371 in August 2024.

Current ranking: #383
Peak ranking: #371 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Mariano Kestelboim

Argentina

Kestelboim, 30, is the Buenos Aires-born right-hander in this matchup. His singles career high is No. 387, set in September 2017.

Current ranking: #831
Peak ranking: #387 · 2017
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 09:51 · Europe/Bucharest

A place in the next round of Guayaquil qualifying is at stake between Ryan Nijboer, ranked 383, and Mariano Kestelboim, ranked 831, whose supplied form stops on 7 June 2026.

Nijboer's clay results make him the likely winner. At 1.15 the price demands 87% confidence from a player not that far clear, so it offers nothing.

Context

Kestelboim's second-set scoring is the weakest area of his clay record.
That second-set split is the sharpest divide in either player's clay sample, and it shapes how a tight match could turn: a split first two sets would put real weight on his weaker half. Seven of his 13 matches ended 0-2, so straight-set defeats are already familiar. Nijboer's own second sets are modest at 8-7, which keeps this a lean rather than a certainty.
- Kestelboim won 3 of 13 second sets on clay between 28 October 2025 and 7 June 2026.
- He averaged 3.62 games won and 5.38 games lost in second sets across that sample.
- Seven of his 13 clay scorelines were 0-2 defeats.
Nijboer's first-set record is the clearest early advantage either player holds on clay.
A first set settled at 6-3 or 6-4 rather than 7-6 is his usual pattern, and the games cushion matches a 10-5 record over the sample. Kestelboim's first sets are near level at 4.46 games won and 4.62 lost, so this is where Nijboer is most clearly ahead. It does not carry over automatically, since Kestelboim still took 5 of 13 first sets, enough to make a slow start plausible.
- Nijboer won 10 of 15 first sets on clay between 11 September and 12 October 2026.
- He averaged 5.4 games won and 4.2 games lost in first sets.
- None of his 15 first sets in that sample featured a tiebreak.
This identifies the match as a qualifying semifinal rather than a main-draw fixture, setting the immediate tournament stakes. Both players share the same listed court and venue, so the scheduling information does not create an asymmetric playing condition. The supplied listings conflict on the scheduled time, with one placing the match at 11:00 and another at 15:00; the court-specific listing gives the latter time.
- The fixture is scheduled as a Guayaquil Challenger qualifying semifinal .
- It is listed for 15:00 on Cancha 1.
- The venue is Guayaquil Tenis Club in Guayaquil, Ecuador.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 09:49 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.co · 25 Oct 2026Tennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026NB-Betnb-bet.com · 25 Oct 2026
Kestelboim's clay numbers are broad but noticeably older than his opponent's.
The gap means his current level on clay is unverified rather than proven weak, and nothing in the record says why he has not played since. His sample still covers 13 matches with two retirements excluded, so the underlying form data is reasonably wide even if dated. Nijboer played as recently as 12 October 2026, which makes his numbers the more current of the two.
- Kestelboim's latest listed match was a 3-6 6-2 3-6 defeat to Iliyan Radulov, ranked 570, on 7 June 2026.
- His 13-match clay sample runs from 28 October 2025 to 7 June 2026.
- Two retirements were excluded from that sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ryan Nijboer

1.15fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 87%

−13.0ppshort

Nijboer is higher ranked, has stronger recent clay results and is winning more games on the surface.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Nijboer is higher ranked, has stronger recent clay results and is winning more games on the surface.
- Ryan Nijboer is ranked 383; Mariano Kestelboim is ranked 831.
- Nijboer is 10-5 on clay in this sample; Kestelboim is 5-8.
- Nijboer has won 55.5% of games (188/339) on clay.
- Kestelboim's latest listed match was 7 June 2026; Nijboer played on 12 October 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRyan NijboerEstimated chance74%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have averaged nine games, and Kestelboim's weak second-set scoring favors shorter sets.
- Nijboer and Kestelboim both average 9.0 total games in second sets.
- Kestelboim has lost 10 of 13 second sets and averages 3.62 games won.
- Only three second-set tiebreaks appear across the two samples.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set average is around the line, and a 6-4 score is enough to go over.
- Nijboer's first sets average 9.6 total games.
- Kestelboim's first sets average 9.08 total games.
- Nijboer has no first-set tiebreaks in 15 clay matches; Kestelboim has one in 13.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The line sits near both players' clay averages, and several recent matches have gone beyond two sets.
- Nijboer's clay matches average 22.6 total games; Kestelboim's average 20.9.
- Nijboer's first sets average 9.6 games and second sets 9.0.
- Kestelboim's first sets average 9.1 games and second sets 9.0.
- Five of the 12 recent completed matches shown for the two players went to three sets.
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nijboer has a clear advantage in first-set results and games on clay.
- Nijboer has won 10 of 15 first sets on clay.
- Kestelboim has won 5 of 13 first sets on clay.
- Nijboer averages 5.4 games won and 4.2 lost in first sets.
- Kestelboim averages 4.46 won and 4.62 lost in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRyan NijboerEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nijboer's second-set record is better, while Kestelboim has struggled badly in second sets.
- Nijboer has won 8 of 15 second sets on clay.
- Kestelboim has won 3 of 13 second sets on clay.
- Kestelboim averages 3.62 games won and 5.38 lost in second sets.
- Kestelboim has lost 10 of 13 second sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 Winnernot gradableRyan NijboerEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most common result in both players' clay records.
- Kestelboim's clay scorelines include seven 0-2 losses in 13 matches.
- Nijboer's clay scorelines include six 2-0 wins in 15 matches.
- Nijboer's clay matches average 2.4 sets; Kestelboim's average 2.31.
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' clay matches have not included a tiebreak.
- Nijboer has had a tiebreak in 2 of 15 clay matches.
- Kestelboim has had a tiebreak in 4 of 13 clay matches.
- Nijboer's first sets have produced no tiebreaks in 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance76%

Ryan Nijboer

10W 5L

5-7 7-6(5) 7-5#497Benjamin Hassan

6-3 6-2#610Javier Barranco Cosano

6-3 6-3#226Marvin Moeller

6-1 4-6 6-3#229Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-3 6-3#497Benjamin Hassan

5-7 7-5 6-1#737Nico Hipfl

7-5 6-1#483Alexander Ritschard

6-4 3-6 7-6(3)—Nicolas Ifi

6-3 6-2#566Pierre Delage

6-2 6-3—Cedric Stanke

6-3 6-4#329Francesco Forti

4-6 6-3 6-4#590Alejandro Juan Mano

6-3 6-3#878Iannis Miletich

6-3 6-1#451Sander Jong

4-6 6-0 6-3#789Anas Mazdrashki

Mariano Kestelboim

5W 10L

7-6(5) ret.#865Fermin Tenti

6-3 2-6 6-3#570Iliyan Radulov

6-2 1-6 7-6(3)#281Sumit Nagal

7-5 6-1#265Matias Soto

6-2 ret.#871Natan Rodrigues

6-0 6-4#204Juan Pablo Varillas

6-4 6-3#298Juan Bautista Torres

6-4 6-4#198Facundo Mena

6-4 4-6 6-2#399Mateus Alves

7-6(3) 6-1#426Andrea Collarini

6-1 6-1—Juan Pablo Irigoin

6-3 6-2#330Nicolas Kicker

6-3 6-7(5) 6-1#224Andres Andrade

6-0 7-6(5)—Alessandro Rubini

6-3 6-2#193David Jorda Sanchis

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RNRyan NijboerNijboer

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Mariano KestelboimKestelboimMK

Ryan Nijboer carries the stronger recent form — Mariano Kestelboim's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In61.5%+2.3pp63.8%

1st Serve Won68.9%+8.2pp60.7%

2nd Serve Won49.3%+2.8pp46.5%

Aces / Match3.5+1.81.7

Double Faults / Match3.70.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.0%+2.7pp41.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.4%+13.4pp53.8%

Break Pts Saved64.5%+13.6pp50.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.4%+3.7pp48.7%

Serve · 3–2

61.5%1st Serve In+2.3pp63.8%

68.9%1st Serve Won+8.2pp60.7%

49.3%2nd Serve Won+2.8pp46.5%

3.5Aces / Match+1.81.7

3.7Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

44.0%Return Pts Won+2.7pp41.3%

Pressure · 1–1

40.4%Break Pts Converted+13.4pp53.8%

64.5%Break Pts Saved+13.6pp50.9%

Points · 1–0

52.4%Total Pts Won+3.7pp48.7%