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Mika Brunold #195Switzerland0Nuno Borges #52Portugal2

Sets 3-6 · 1-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 12:40First RoundI.hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNuno Borges · 143 places

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #195
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Nuno Borges

Portugal

Reached a career-high No. 30 on September 9, 2024. His first ATP singles title came on clay at Bastad in 2024.

Current ranking: #52
Peak ranking: #30 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 07:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Brunold, ranked 195, arrives with 12 wins in his last 14 tracked matches and a 6-1 indoor-hard run, while Borges, No. 52, owns the bigger serve and a 9-2 record in second sets on hard.

Borges is the likelier winner, but 1.33 on him asks more than his form supports. The prices with room are over 24.5 games at 2.2, Brunold to win at 3.3 and Brunold 2-1 at 5.5.

Context

No availability news, injury note or researched context was supplied, so the match reads on the ranking gap and two small hard-court form samples, one of them seven matches with a retirement excluded.

Brunold's recent hard-court wins have been narrow, and the Faria result is the clearest example of it.
Two tiebreak sets against a top-60 opponent show Brunold holding serve under pressure on indoor hard. Five of his six listed hard-court matches were decided by exactly two games, which points to another close scoreline here. It is a six-match window, so it does not prove he repeats it against Borges's heavier serve.
- 24 Oct 2026: beat Jaime Faria (No. 56) 7-6, 7-6 on indoor hard, 14 games to 12.
- The win preceded a 6-7, 4-6 loss to Remy Bertola (No. 219) on 25 Oct 2026.
- Five of Brunold's six listed hard-court matches finished with a two-game margin.
Borges has been markedly stronger in second sets than first sets on hard, where his set-one record is 6-5.
If the match reaches a second set, this record points to Borges tightening his hold, with a game margin close to two per set. Brunold's own second-set record in his seven-match hard sample is 4-3, so the edge is not absolute. The sample covers 11 matches only and ends on 10 October.
- SetEvidence, hard, best-of-3, 11 matches from 3 Aug to 10 Oct 2026: second-set record 9-2, 5.9 games won and 4.0 lost per set.
- First-set record in the same sample: 6-5, with 5.2 games won and 5.2 lost.
- Five of the 11 matches included a tiebreak.
Borges's serve is his clearest weapon, and the numbers hold across the full 15-match window.
Free points on the first serve shorten his service games and make breaks harder to find, which raises the chance of tiebreaks and longer sets. The counterweight is a 35.8% conversion rate on break points and 49.6% of second-serve points won. Rallies that begin with a second serve are where Brunold can find a foothold.
- 15 matches tracked: 723 of 1,118 first serves in (64.7%), and 555 of 723 first-serve points won (76.8%).
- 114 aces in 15 matches (7.6 per match) against 40 double faults (2.7 per match).
- Break points converted: 29 of 81 (35.8%). Second-serve points won: 196 of 395 (49.6%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Borges's ranking and serve give him the clearer route, though his hard-court record is only modestly positive.
- Ranked 52, 143 places above Brunold.
- 7-5 on hard in 12 matches, with 77.4% first-serve points won and 8.3 aces per match.
- SetEvidence hard best-of-3: 7-4, including wins over Rublev (No. 22) and Diaz Acosta (No. 71).
BetBugs · Match WinnerNuno BorgesEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's recent hard matches have been close, which helps him stay within the handicap even if he loses.
- Brunold's recent hard game margins: +2, +2, +2, +2, +2, -3.
- Five of those six matches cleared +2.5.
- All five recent wins were by two games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapMika Brunold +2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The recent hard-court matches have averaged just above this line and often included tiebreaks.
- Brunold's hard total-games average is 25.3; Borges's is 25.1.
- Brunold had a tiebreak in 5 of 7 hard matches; Borges in 5 of 11.
- Brunold's set1 games average 11.0; Borges's set1 average 10.4.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 24.5Market price2.20Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Borges has been notably strong in second sets on hard, making him the clearer side.
- Borges's set2 record on hard is 9-2.
- Borges's set2 games won average 5.9 and lost average 4.0.
- Brunold's set2 record on hard is 4-3.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerNuno BorgesMarket price1.44Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set outcomes are slightly more common in the available hard-court samples.
- Straight-set scorelines: Brunold 4 of 7, Borges 6 of 11.
- Borges has five 2-0 scorelines in 11 hard matches.
- Brunold has three 2-0 scorelines in seven hard matches.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Market price1.50Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Borges's serve gives him a slight first-set edge, but Brunold's set-one record keeps it close.
- Borges's set1 record on hard is 6-5.
- Borges won 77.4% of first-serve points on hard.
- Brunold's set1 record is 5-2 with four tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerNuno BorgesEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard matches have featured tiebreaks at a high enough rate to make at least one likely.
- Brunold had a tiebreak in 5 of 7 hard matches.
- Borges had a tiebreak in 5 of 11 hard matches.
- Brunold had four set1 tiebreaks in seven hard matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchYesEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Nuno Borges: 10/15 recent winner projections matched

10 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Nuno Borges matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nuno Borges15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·ATP Estoril

#48Nuno Borges1-2#60Roman Andres Burruchaga

BetBugsNuno Borges to win·65%

Missed

22 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#48Nuno Borges1-2#60Roman Andres Burruchaga

Nuno Borges to win

65%probability

Roman Andres Burruchaga won

Missed

21 Jul·ATP Estoril

#52Nuno Borges2-0#897Orlando Luz

BetBugsNuno Borges to win·85%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#52Nuno Borges2-0#897Orlando Luz

Nuno Borges to win

85%probability

Nuno Borges won

Matched

17 Jul·ATP Bastad

#52Nuno Borges0-2#18Luciano Darderi

BetBugsNuno Borges to win·62%

Missed

17 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#52Nuno Borges0-2#18Luciano Darderi

Nuno Borges to win

62%probability

Luciano Darderi won

Missed

15 Jul·ATP Bastad

#52Nuno Borges2-0#146Grigor Dimitrov

BetBugsNuno Borges to win·62%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#52Nuno Borges2-0#146Grigor Dimitrov

Nuno Borges to win

62%probability

Nuno Borges won

Matched

14 Jul·ATP Bastad

#52Nuno Borges2-0#211Moise Kouame

BetBugsNuno Borges to win·78%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#52Nuno Borges2-0#211Moise Kouame

Nuno Borges to win

78%probability

Nuno Borges won

Matched

Previous match context available

Mika Brunold

13W 2L

7-6(5) 6-4#219Remy Bertola

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#56Jaime Faria

2-6 7-6(5) 6-1#243Matteo Martineau

7-6(2) 7-6(3)#223Jerome Kym

6-3 2-6 6-3#186Felix Balshaw

6-2 2-6 6-4#100Benjamin Bonzi

7-6(2) 6-3—Mathys Domenc

6-0 3-6 6-4#314Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-2 6-2#329Francesco Forti

6-3 1-6 7-5#365Massimo Giunta

6-4 6-3#188Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-0 6-2#175Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-1#114Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#495Filip Misolic

6-3 4-0 ret.#342Miguel Damas

Nuno Borges

8W 7L

6-3 3-6 6-3#20Jiri Lehecka

7-6(5) 6-2#71Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-3 7-6(2)#12Novak Djokovic

6-4 6-1 6-2#18Learner Tien

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#17Brandon Nakashima

6-3 6-4#22Andrey Rublev

6-4 6-4#21Francisco Cerundolo

5-7 7-6(3) 7-6(4)#410Thanasi Kokkinakis

4-6 6-3 7-5#23Luciano Darderi

6-4 6-2#59Yannick Hanfmann

6-4 6-2#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-7(7) 6-2 6-4#82Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-1 4-6 6-3#62Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-3 6-3#894Orlando Luz

7-6(9) 6-4#23Luciano Darderi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMika BrunoldBrunold

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Nuno BorgesBorgesNB

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Nuno Borges's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In67.2%+2.5pp64.7%

1st Serve Won70.0%+6.8pp76.8%

2nd Serve Won56.4%+6.8pp49.6%

Aces / Match3.2+4.47.6

Double Faults / Match1.51.2 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.6%+6.2pp35.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.1%+6.3pp35.8%

Break Pts Saved62.7%+3.5pp66.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.4%+2.6pp50.8%

Serve · 3–2

67.2%1st Serve In+2.5pp64.7%

70.0%1st Serve Won+6.8pp76.8%

56.4%2nd Serve Won+6.8pp49.6%

3.2Aces / Match+4.47.6

1.5Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

41.6%Return Pts Won+6.2pp35.4%

Pressure · 1–1

42.1%Break Pts Converted+6.3pp35.8%

62.7%Break Pts Saved+3.5pp66.2%

Points · 1–0

53.4%Total Pts Won+2.6pp50.8%

Mika Brunold

Nuno Borges

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 24.5

Mika Brunold

Mika Brunold 2-1

Nuno Borges

Under 2.5

Result0 of 0 landed

Games0 of 0 landed

Sets0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Mika Brunold

Nuno Borges

Stat Battle