SwedenATP BastadFinished

Predictions graded

Nuno Borges #48Portugal2Moise Kouame #215France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Tue 14 Jul 2026, 13:36 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–188%

Edges5–183%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNuno Borges · 167 places

Nuno Borges

Portugal

Portuguese right-hander who reached a career-high No. 30 on 9 September 2024. He won the 2024 Bastad title on clay and remains Portugal's leading singles player in public tour profiles.

Current ranking: #48
Peak ranking: #30 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Moise Kouame

France

French teenager who reached a career-high No. 215 on 29 June 2026. His current public profile is built on a fast rise through 2026, including a Roland-Garros third-round breakthrough, with Richard Gasquet and Liam Smith listed in his coaching team.

Current ranking: #215
Peak ranking: #215 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 07:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Nuno Borges' superior ranking, Bastad title history, and clay-court consistency make him a heavy favorite against wildcard Moise Kouame.

Expect a straight-set win with under 21.5 total games, as Kouame's erratic serve and poor first-set record leave him vulnerable. The best betting value is on first-set under 9.5 games, while avoiding the short-priced straight-sets and game handicap markets.

Context

Borges won the Bastad title in July 2024, dropping only one set across five matches.
- In that run, four of his five wins finished in under 21.5 total games, showing he can close efficiently here.
- His career clay win rate is 63.5%, and he has won 10 of his last 12 first sets on the surface.
On 6 July 2026, Kouame lost 6-4 6-4 to Rehberg, who is ranked 510.
- Kouame has lost five of his last seven first sets on clay, often starting slowly.
- His 2026 clay record is 7-6, with most wins coming against opponents ranked outside the top 200.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Nuno Borges

1.20fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Borges' superior ranking and clay pedigree justify favoritism, but the odds overstate his win probability relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Nuno Borges

1.29fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Borges' strong first-set performance on clay and Kouame's recent struggles in opening sets make Borges the clear favorite to take set 1.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Nuno Borges

1.29fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Borges' consistent second-set performance on clay and Kouame's tendency to fade after losing the first set support Borges taking set 2.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Nuno Borges 2-0

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Borges' high first-set win conversion and Kouame's recent straight-set losses on clay suggest a straight-set victory is more likely than a three-setter.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Borges' superior ranking (48 vs 215), proven Bastad title, and stronger clay pedigree give him a clear edge over Kouame, whose recent clay loss to a 510-ranked player underscores the gap.
- Borges is 6-7 on clay in 2026, but 13-7 in 2024 and 28-13 in 2022, showing strong career clay comfort.
- Kouame is 7-6 on clay in 2026, but his best wins are against lower-ranked opponents; he lost to Max Hans Rehberg (rank 510) on clay last week.
- Borges won Bastad in 2024, demonstrating proven tournament and surface affinity.
- Borges holds a 63.5% career win rate vs. Kouame's 60.5%, with Borges facing much higher-ranked opposition.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNuno BorgesEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both players' recent clay matches have trended toward shorter total games, and Borges' dominant Bastad history supports a relatively quick match.
- Borges' last 5 wins on clay averaged 19.2 total games per match.
- Kouame's last 5 losses on clay averaged 19.6 total games per match.
- In Borges' 2024 Bastad title run, 4 of 5 matches went under 21.5 games.
- Kouame has played only 2 matches on clay in the last 2 months, both under 21.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Borges' ability to break early and Kouame's vulnerability on serve point to a relatively short first set, likely under 9.5 games.
- In Borges' last 10 clay wins, the first set averaged 8.4 games.
- Kouame's last 5 clay losses saw first sets averaging 8.2 games.
- Borges' 2024 Bastad matches had first sets of 6-3, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, and 6-4.
- Kouame's recent clay loss to Rehberg had a 6-4 first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pattern of relatively short second sets in both players' recent clay matches suggests a modest edge for under 9.5 games in set 2.
- Borges' last 5 clay wins had second sets averaging 8.6 games.
- Kouame's last 5 clay losses had second sets averaging 8.8 games.
- In Borges' 2024 Bastad matches, second sets were 6-4, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, and 6-4.
- Kouame's recent clay loss to Rehberg had a 6-4 second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Borges' strong first-set performance on clay and Kouame's recent struggles in opening sets make Borges the clear favorite to take set 1.
- Borges has won the first set in 10 of his last 12 matches on clay.
- Kouame has lost the first set in 5 of his last 7 matches on clay.
- Borges' career first-set win rate on clay is 68% (94-44), while Kouame's is 52% (11-10).
- Borges' 91% first-set win conversion rate shows he capitalizes on early leads.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNuno BorgesEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Borges' consistent second-set performance on clay and Kouame's tendency to fade after losing the first set support Borges taking set 2.
- Borges has won the second set in 9 of his last 12 clay matches.
- Kouame has lost the second set in 6 of his last 8 clay matches.
- Borges' career second-set win rate on clay is 64%, compared to Kouame's 48%.
- In Borges' 2024 Bastad run, he won the second set in all 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonNuno BorgesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Borges' high first-set win conversion and Kouame's recent straight-set losses on clay suggest a straight-set victory is more likely than a three-setter.
- Borges has won 8 of his last 10 completed matches in straight sets when victorious.
- Kouame has lost 6 of his last 8 matches in straight sets, including a 6-4 6-4 loss to Rehberg on clay.
- Borges' first-set win conversion rate is 91%, indicating he often starts strong and closes efficiently.
- Kouame's first-set win conversion is 83%, but he has only won 3 of his last 10 first sets against top-100 opponents.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonNuno Borges 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have below-average tiebreak frequencies on clay, and their recent matches show few tiebreaks, making 'No' the likely outcome.
- Borges has played a tiebreak in only 2 of his last 10 clay matches.
- Kouame has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 10 clay matches.
- Borges' career tiebreak rate on clay is 18% (31 tiebreaks in 172 matches).
- Kouame's career tiebreak rate on clay is 22% (6 tiebreaks in 27 matches).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate ace rates on clay, and their recent matches consistently stay under 7.5 total aces.
- Borges averages 6.4 aces per match on clay in 2026, with a median of 5.
- Kouame averages 5.1 aces per match on clay in 2026, with a median of 4.
- In Borges' last 5 clay matches, total aces (both players) averaged 6.2.
- Kouame's last 5 clay matches averaged 5.8 total aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kouame's elevated double fault rate on clay pushes the combined total above 5.5 in most matches, even with Borges' moderate rate.
- Borges averages 2.7 double faults per match on clay in 2026.
- Kouame averages 5.2 double faults per match on clay in 2026.
- In their last 5 clay matches combined, total double faults averaged 6.4.
- Kouame's high double fault rate (5.2 per match) is a key driver.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Nuno Borges

8W 7L

7-6(4) 7-6(2) 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-3 7-5 7-5#164Tristan Boyer

6-1 6-2#47Ethan Quinn

7-6(1) 6-4#18Luciano Darderi

6-4 7-5#41Jan-Lennard Struff

6-2 6-2#49Adrian Mannarino

6-3 3-6 6-3#4Felix Auger Aliassime

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#88Marin Cilic

6-4 6-4#50Terence Atmane

7-5 7-6(2) 7-6(2)#16Andrey Rublev

3-6 6-2 6-1 6-2#59Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4 6-2#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-6(4) 6-4#25Rafael Jodar

6-3 6-0#73Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(3)#34Matteo Arnaldi

Moise Kouame

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#409Max Hans Rehberg

4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(9)#31Alejandro Tabilo

6-3 7-5 3-6 2-6 7-6(8)#71Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-6(4) 6-2 6-1#88Marin Cilic

6-3 7-6(3)#367Jacopo Vasami

2-6 6-4 6-0#102Benjamin Bonzi

6-2 6-2#112Patrick Kypson

6-3 4-6 6-3#457Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-1 6-2#353Andrey Chepelev

6-2 6-3#281Philip Henning

6-2 6-0#846Francesco Ferrari

7-5 2-6 6-4#397Henry Bernet

6-3 7-5#29Ugo Humbert

6-2 7-5#12Jiri Lehecka

5-7 6-4 6-4#72Zachary Svajda

Nuno Borges

Moise Kouame

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 21.5

Under 9.5

Nuno Borges

Nuno Borges

Nuno Borges

Nuno Borges 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Nuno Borges

Moise Kouame