AustriaATP ViennaRETFeatured

Arthur Fery #34United Kingdom1Jacob Fearnley #87United Kingdom0

Sets 5-1Mon 26 Oct 2026, 16:30First RoundI.hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageArthur Fery · 53 places

Arthur Fery

United Kingdom

Fery was 23 during his Wimbledon semi-final run in July 2026. His recent major run included two consecutive five-set comeback victories.

Current ranking: #34
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Jacob Fearnley

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 49 on June 9, 2025. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; historical college injuries are not treated as a current availability issue.

Current ranking: #87
Peak ranking: #49 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranking and recent hard-court form pull in opposite directions: Fearnley is 10-4 in 14 matches with a 10-2 first-set mark in 12, but Fery is ranked higher and has been off since 20 October while Fearnley played three-setters on 24 and 25 October.

Fearnley is the likelier match winner, yet the 1.65 price for him to win the match asks too much. Fearnley to take the first set at 1.65 is the only reviewed price that offers value.

Context

Fearnley's 10-4 recent hard-court record and 10-2 first-set mark give him the stronger sporting case. Fery's higher ranking (34 vs 87) and the gap since his last listed match on 20 October are the main counterweights, with Fearnley having played three-setters on 24 and 25 October.

That record gives Fearnley a clear early advantage on paper, and it is the strongest split in the supplied evidence. It does not settle how the match will start in Vienna, especially with Fery ranked higher and having no listed match since 20 October.
- Across 12 hard-court best-of-three matches from 26 August to 25 October 2026, Fearnley won 10 first sets and lost 2.
- He averaged 6.0 first-set games won and 3.17 lost.
- The sample included five matches with a tiebreak; one retirement was excluded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetsUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.55fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 64.5%

−0.5ppshort

Straight-set finishes are the most common outcome for both.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Slight lean

Jacob Fearnley

1.65fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 60.6%

−4.6ppshort

Fearnley's stronger recent hard-court results and first-set record make him favored.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Fearnley's stronger recent hard-court results and first-set record make him favored.
- Fearnley is 10-4 on hard in the last 15; Fery is 6-6.
- Fearnley's hard best-of-three set evidence is 9-3; Fery's is 6-5.
- Fearnley has won 10 of 12 first sets in that sample.
- Fearnley played three-set matches on 24 and 25 October; Fery last played on 20 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerJacob FearnleyMarket price1.65Estimated chance56%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fearnley's shorter matches and straight-set wins make under slightly more likely.
- Fearnley's total games average is 22.17; Fery's is 24.36.
- Fearnley finished 8 of 12 setEvidence matches in straight sets.
- Fery finished 7 of 11 in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 23.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average close to ten games, slightly favoring over.
- Fery's second-set total games average is 10.0.
- Fearnley's is 9.75.
- The combined average is about 9.9 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fery has kept most recent matches within one game or better, and the handicap protects against a narrow loss.
- Fery's five best-of-three hard-court game margins: -4, -1, +6, -1, +8.
- He covered +1.5 in four of those five matches.
- Fearnley's -1.5 covered in four of six recent hard matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapArthur Fery +1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average is just above the line.
- Fery's first-set total games average is 10.27.
- Fearnley's is 9.17.
- The combined average is about 9.7 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Fearnley's first-set record is the strongest split in the evidence.
- Fearnley is 10-2 in first sets on hard best-of-three.
- Fery is 5-6 in first sets.
- Fearnley's first-set games average is 6.0-3.17.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerJacob FearnleyMarket price1.65Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most common outcome for both.
- Fery finished 7 of 11 setEvidence matches in straight sets.
- Fearnley finished 8 of 12 in straight sets.
- Both total sets averages are below 2.4.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Market price1.55Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fery has been stronger in second sets than Fearnley.
- Fery is 7-4 in second sets on hard best-of-three.
- Fearnley is 6-6 in second sets.
- Fery's second-set games average is 5.55-4.45.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerArthur FeryEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent matches did not have a tiebreak.
- Fery had no tiebreak in 6 of 11.
- Fearnley had no tiebreak in 7 of 12.
- Both have strong first-set records that can produce routine sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Jacob Fearnley: 11/14 recent winner projections matched

11 of 14 comparable winner projections favouring Jacob Fearnley matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jacob Fearnley14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#110Jacob Fearnley2-0#124Sebastian Ofner

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·62%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#110Jacob Fearnley2-0#124Sebastian Ofner

Jacob Fearnley to win

62%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

25 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#120Michael Zheng

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·58%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#120Michael Zheng

Jacob Fearnley to win

58%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

23 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#166Tristan Boyer

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·62%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#166Tristan Boyer

Jacob Fearnley to win

62%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

21 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#123Jacob Fearnley2-0#179Remy Bertola

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·72%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#123Jacob Fearnley2-0#179Remy Bertola

Jacob Fearnley to win

72%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

11 Jul·Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau1-2#159Jacob Fearnley

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·58%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau1-2#159Jacob Fearnley

Jacob Fearnley to win

58%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

Previous match context available

Arthur Fery

8W 7L

6-3 7-6(2)#148Borna Gojo

7-6(6) 6-7(5) 7-6(2)#25Karen Khachanov

7-6(2) 6-1#84Marin Cilic

6-4 3-6 6-4#56Jaime Faria

7-5 6-0#345Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-3 6-3 7-5#26Lorenzo Musetti

6-3 6-2#33Ignacio Buse

6-4 1-2 ret.#73James Duckworth

3-6 7-5 6-3#82Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-3 6-3#331Mees Rottgering

6-1 7-5#324Cruz Hewitt

7-5 7-6(3)#8Alex De Minaur

6-4 2-6 7-6(4)#73James Duckworth

7-6(0) 6-2 6-4#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 7-6(4) 6-0#6Flavio Cobolli

Jacob Fearnley

10W 5L

6-1 6-7(3) 6-4#89Lorenzo Sonego

6-4 3-6 6-3#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(4) 6-2#152Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-0#93Hugo Gaston

7-6(4) 6-3#83Damir Dzumhur

6-2 6-4#241Luca Nardi

6-0 7-6(4)#234Maxim Mrva

6-4 6-3#192Jan Kumstat

6-1 6-3#450George Loffhagen

7-6(4) 3-0 ret.#185Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-1 6-2#323Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3#67Martin Landaluce

4-6 6-4 6-4#137Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#207Luka Pavlovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AFArthur FeryFery

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Jacob FearnleyFearnleyJF

Jacob Fearnley carries the stronger recent form — Arthur Fery's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.4%+1.2pp64.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1568.6%+3.6pp72.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1554.5%+4.9pp49.6%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.1+0.34.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.33.0 fewer5.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1536.0%+5.9pp41.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1538.5%+7.8pp46.3%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1560.5%+6.8pp67.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.5%+3.4pp52.9%

Serve · 2–3

63.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+1.2pp64.6%

68.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp72.2%

54.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.9pp49.6%

4.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.34.4

2.3Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.0 fewer5.3

Return · 0–1

36.0%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.9pp41.9%

Pressure · 0–2

38.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+7.8pp46.3%

60.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+6.8pp67.3%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.4pp52.9%