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Predictions graded

Yexin Ma #200China0Daria Kasatkina #74Australia2

Sets 2-6 · 2-6Sat 24 Oct 2026, 09:25 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–614%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaria Kasatkina · 126 places

Yexin Ma

China

Public profile sources identify her as a right-handed Chinese player born June 10, 1999, with a career high of No. 165. No reliable current injury, return-from-absence, coaching, or surface-preference report was located.

Current ranking: #200
Peak ranking: #165
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Daria Kasatkina

Australia

Reached career-high No. 8 on 24 October 2022. The WTA describes her as a baseliner whose favorite surface is clay.

Current ranking: #74
Peak ranking: #8 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 21:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Kasatkina is the higher-ranked name, but her hard-court season has been poor and Ma's first-set record makes this awkward.

Expect a scrappy, possibly long qualifying match, with Kasatkina the likelier winner. The prices are generous toward Ma: 3.5 games at 3.0, the opening set at 3.5, the match at 4.75, with over 2.5 sets at 2.9 and over 21.5 games at 2.3 also holding up. Kasatkina at 1.18 does not.

Context

Kasatkina's first sets have been the weakest part of her hard-court season.
Kasatkina has lost 11 of 13 opening sets on hard since late July, so Ma's 8-7 first-set record gives her a real route into the match. Even when Kasatkina has recovered, the work has been heavy: eight of those 13 matches ran to a third set. The caveat is that the same window contains only five wins, so the comebacks have not often been completed.
- Set-1 record of 2-11 across 13 hard-court matches (25 July–19 October 2026).
- Scorelines in that window: 2-1 five times, 1-2 three times, 0-2 five times.
The second serve has been the most vulnerable part of Kasatkina's game: 37.5% of second-serve points won across 15 tracked matches, with 7.8 double faults a match. That gives Ma's return a steady target and adds cheap games to the match total. Ma's own second-serve numbers on hard are noticeably stronger, so this is one area where the ranking gap does not carry over.
- 15 matches tracked: 117 double faults, 7.8 per match.
- Second-serve points won: 37.5% (155 of 413).
- First serves in: 66.8% (832 of 1245).
Both listings put Ma and Kasatkina in Tokyo qualifying on 24 October on hard court. The main relevance is logistical, as court assignment and start time determine same-day preparation only if the listing is current. The supplied pages disagree on the round and time, so neither establishes the final order of play.
- Both listings place Ma and Kasatkina in Tokyo qualifying on 24 October on a hard court.
- The available fixture pages disagree on the round, court designation and scheduled time.
To watchSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 21:41 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.in · 23 Oct 2026Tennis.comwww.tennis.com · 23 Oct 2026
Ma's hard-court record has a clear shape: she wins slightly more opening sets than she loses and then slips back in the second. Her second sets have averaged only 8.1 games, so a fast start has not translated into control. If she does take the opening set, that recent pattern is the reason to expect the match to keep going rather than to close quickly.
- Set-1 record 8-7, averaging 4.93 games won and 4.73 lost.
- Set-2 record 6-9, with games won and lost both averaging 4.07.
- 15 hard-court matches tracked from 5 August to 5 October 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kasatkina's ranking and stronger recent opposition give her an advantage, but her hard-court results are poor.
- Kasatkina is ranked 74, 126 places above Ma.
- Kasatkina is 5-8 on hard this window; Ma is 7-8 on the same surface.
- Kasatkina's five hard-court wins in the sample were all in three sets.
- Kasatkina's hard-court total-points share is 48.2%; Ma's is 50.4%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaria KasatkinaEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Kasatkina's recent hard-court wins have been close, giving Ma a reasonable chance to stay within 3.5 games.
- Ma's last six completed hard matches had margins -5, -6, -7, +6, -5, +7.
- She covered +3.5 games in two of those six matches, both wins.
- Kasatkina's last five completed hard matches produced only one margin above +3.5.
- Kasatkina's hard-court wins this window were 2-1, with recent margins +5 and +1.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostYexin Ma +3.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both players have enough three-set and close-set history for the match to pass 21.5 games.
- Kasatkina's hard-court matches average 24.7 total games; Ma's average 21.6.
- Kasatkina has played eight three-set matches in 13 hard-court matches.
- Ma has played six three-set matches in 15 hard-court matches.
- Kasatkina's set-2 hard-court matches average 10.0 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first sets have averaged close to the 9.5 line.
- Ma's set-1 matches average 9.7 total games.
- Kasatkina's set-1 matches average 9.3 total games.
- Neither player has more than one set-1 tiebreak in the hard-court sample.
- Ma averages 4.93 set-1 games won; Kasatkina averages 3.62.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ma's second sets have been short on average, supporting the under.
- Ma's set-2 matches average 8.1 total games.
- Ma's set-2 games won and lost are both 4.07 on average.
- Kasatkina's set-2 matches average 10.0 total games.
- Kasatkina has four set-2 tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.90
The read
Kasatkina's recent hard-court matches often go the distance, and her wins have all needed a third set.
- Kasatkina's hard-court scorelines include five 2-1 wins and three 1-2 losses.
- Eight of Kasatkina's 13 hard-court matches went to three sets.
- Ma's hard-court scorelines include three 2-1 wins and three 1-2 losses.
- Kasatkina's five hard-court wins this window were all in three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.50
The read
Kasatkina has started slowly on hard, while Ma has a winning first-set record in the same sample.
- Ma's hard-court set-1 record is 8-7.
- Kasatkina's hard-court set-1 record is 2-11.
- Ma averages 4.93 games won and 4.73 lost in set 1.
- Kasatkina averages 3.62 games won and 5.69 lost in set 1.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYexin MaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Kasatkina's second-set record is slightly better than Ma's, and her second sets are often close.
- Kasatkina's hard-court set-2 record is 6-7.
- Ma's hard-court set-2 record is 6-9.
- Kasatkina's set-2 matches average 10.0 games; Ma's average 8.1.
- Kasatkina has four set-2 tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonDaria KasatkinaEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ma's recent hard-court matches have rarely included a tiebreak.
- Ma had at least one tiebreak in only 2 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Kasatkina had at least one tiebreak in 5 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Ma has no set-2 tiebreaks in the sample.
- Kasatkina's set-1 matches include only one tiebreak in 13.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kasatkina's double-fault volume brings the combined total close to the line, with the over slightly above.
- Kasatkina averages 7.9 double faults per hard-court match.
- Ma averages 3.4 double faults per hard-court match.
- Their combined average is 11.3 double faults.
- Kasatkina's double-fault rate is high across the 13-match hard-court sample.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages sit just above the 4.5 line.
- Ma averages 2.9 aces per match on hard.
- Kasatkina averages 1.9 aces per match on hard.
- Their combined hard-court average is 4.8 aces.
- Kasatkina's first-serve percentage is 66.1% on hard.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Daria Kasatkina: 8/14 recent winner projections matched

8 of 14 comparable winner projections favouring Daria Kasatkina matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Daria Kasatkina14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·WTA Washington

#61Daria Kasatkina2-1#464Alana Smith

BetBugsDaria Kasatkina to win·78%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#61Daria Kasatkina2-1#464Alana Smith

Daria Kasatkina to win

78%probability

Daria Kasatkina won

Matched

25 Jul·WTA Washington

#61Daria Kasatkina2-1#415Mariam Bolkvadze

BetBugsDaria Kasatkina to win·78%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#61Daria Kasatkina2-1#415Mariam Bolkvadze

Daria Kasatkina to win

78%probability

Daria Kasatkina won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#327Mingge Xu1-2#68Daria Kasatkina

BetBugsDaria Kasatkina to win·82%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#327Mingge Xu1-2#68Daria Kasatkina

Daria Kasatkina to win

82%probability

Daria Kasatkina won

Matched

22 Jun·WTA Eastbourne

#44McCartney Kessler2-0#69Daria Kasatkina

BetBugsDaria Kasatkina to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

WTA Eastbourne

#44McCartney Kessler2-0#69Daria Kasatkina

Daria Kasatkina to win

62%probability

McCartney Kessler won

Missed

13 Jun·WTA Nottingham

#66Daria Kasatkina0-2#105Anna Blinkova

BetBugsDaria Kasatkina to win·72%

Missed

13 Jun 2026

WTA Nottingham

#66Daria Kasatkina0-2#105Anna Blinkova

Daria Kasatkina to win

72%probability

Anna Blinkova won

Missed

Previous match context available

Yexin Ma

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#113Elvina Kalieva

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#105Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-2#117Harriet Dart

4-6 6-1 6-3#293Yufei Ren

7-5 6-3#41Kimberly Birrell

3-6 6-0 6-2#134Emerson Jones

6-3 6-1#465Eunhye Lee

6-3 6-0#748Carol Zhao

5-7 6-4 6-4#473Tahlia Kokkinis

6-4 4-6 7-6(10)#337Kristiana Sidorova

3-6 6-2 6-3#399Jiaqi Wang

6-3 6-2#416Unknown Player

6-4 6-2#214Clara Burel

6-2 6-1#279Katrina Scott

6-1 6-3#546Clervie Ngounoue

Daria Kasatkina

6W 9L

6-4 6-2#122Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-1 6-1#24Jelena Ostapenko

2-6 6-2 6-1#170Sara Sorribes Tormo

4-6 7-6(3) 6-4#82Viktorija Golubic

4-6 7-6(7) 6-4#61Paula Badosa Gibert

7-5 6-0#122Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-1 6-4#61Paula Badosa Gibert

2-6 7-6(4) 6-3#63Zeynep Sonmez

6-3 5-7 6-4#1Elena Rybakina

1-6 7-6(5) 7-5#39Xinyu Wang

6-4 6-1#23Anna Kalinskaya

4-6 6-4 6-0#473Alana Smith

6-7(3) 6-4 6-0#338Mariam Bolkvadze

6-1 6-3#19Naomi Osaka

6-7(5) 6-1 6-4#46Janice Tjen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YMYexin MaMa

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Daria KasatkinaKasatkinaDK

Yexin Ma carries the stronger recent form — Daria Kasatkina's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In55.0%+11.8pp66.8%

1st Serve Won59.4%+2.1pp57.3%

2nd Serve Won47.2%+9.7pp37.5%

Aces / Match2.9+0.92.0

Double Faults / Match3.44.4 fewer7.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.3%+1.2pp46.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.0%+2.2pp47.8%

Break Pts Saved51.9%+2.8pp49.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.4%+2.0pp48.4%

Serve · 4–1

55.0%1st Serve In+11.8pp66.8%

59.4%1st Serve Won+2.1pp57.3%

47.2%2nd Serve Won+9.7pp37.5%

2.9Aces / Match+0.92.0

3.4Double Faults / Match4.4 fewer7.8

Return · 1–0

47.3%Return Pts Won+1.2pp46.1%

Pressure · 2–0

50.0%Break Pts Converted+2.2pp47.8%

51.9%Break Pts Saved+2.8pp49.1%

Points · 1–0

50.4%Total Pts Won+2.0pp48.4%

Yexin Ma

Daria Kasatkina

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yexin Ma +3.5

Over 2.5

Over 21.5

Yexin Ma

Daria Kasatkina 2-1

Yexin Ma

Daria Kasatkina

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Yexin Ma

Daria Kasatkina

Stat Battle