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Predictions graded

Daria Kasatkina #61Australia2Mariam Bolkvadze #415Georgia1

Sets 6-7 · 6-4 · 6-0Sat 25 Jul 2026, 18:35 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaria Kasatkina · 354 places

Daria Kasatkina

Australia

Former world No. 8 with the strongest career record on clay. Tennis Australia reported in May 2026 that burnout ended her 2025 season early and a hip-affected spring slump pushed her ranking down before her Wimbledon rebound.

Current ranking: #61
Peak ranking: #8
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Mariam Bolkvadze

Georgia

Former world No. 151 whose career record is strongest on hard courts. WTA reported in July 2026 that she was using a protected ranking during her comeback and said she was healthy again.

Current ranking: #415
Peak ranking: #151
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jul 2026, 09:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Kasatkina's superior ranking, return game, and first-set dominance make her a strong favorite against the error-prone Bolkvadze.

Expect a straight-set win with few games, and consider betting under 20.5 total games and over 10.5 double faults.

Context

Bolkvadze's last 15 overall double-fault average is 9.2 per match (119 in 13 tracked matches).
- On hard courts specifically, she averages 9.4 double faults per match (66 in 7 matches).
- Kasatkina wins 46.7% of return points and converts 55% of break points, so she can punish weak serving.
Kasatkina's first-set win rate in the last 15 matches is 67% (10/15).
- Her career first-set win conversion rate is 90%.
- Bolkvadze lost the first set in 47% of her last 15 matches (7/15).
Bolkvadze's hard-court wins in the last 15: vs. Adkar (rank 382), Weckerle (590), Dapkute (862).
- Her hard-court losses include defeats to players ranked 222, 488, and 508.
- Kasatkina's ranking (61) is far above any opponent Bolkvadze has beaten on hard courts recently.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daria Kasatkina

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Kasatkina's superior ranking, higher-level competition, and stronger break-point conversion give her a clear edge, despite Bolkvadze's recent grass-court wins.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daria Kasatkina

1.33fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Kasatkina's strong first-set record and superior serve performance give her a high probability of winning the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daria Kasatkina

1.33fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Kasatkina's dominance in second sets on hard courts, combined with Bolkvadze's poor second-set record, makes a Kasatkina set-2 win likely.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Daria Kasatkina 2-0

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Kasatkina's comfortable straight-set wins on hard courts support a 2-0 victory.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Daria Kasatkina 2-0

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Kasatkina's strong first-set performance and Bolkvadze's struggles against higher-ranked players suggest a straight-set win is likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Kasatkina's superior ranking (61 vs 415), higher-level competition, and stronger break-point conversion give her a clear edge, despite Bolkvadze's recent grass-court wins.
- Kasatkina's last 15 overall record is 8-7 (53.3%), with a 50.5% games-won rate, while Bolkvadze is also 8-7 (53.3%) but with a 51.1% games-won rate.
- On hard courts, Kasatkina's last 15 surface-specific record is 4-5 (44.4%) with 48.9% games won, while Bolkvadze's is 3-4 (42.9%) with 52.1% games won, but Kasatkina faced much stronger opponents (avg rank ~120 vs ~400).
- Kasatkina's career hard-court win percentage is 60% (188-125), while Bolkvadze's is 57% (188-142), but Kasatkina has played predominantly at WTA level vs. Bolkvadze's ITF/qualifying level.
- Kasatkina's return points won in last 15 overall is 46.7% vs. Bolkvadze's 48.1%, but Kasatkina's break-point conversion is 55% vs. Bolkvadze's 46.7%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaria KasatkinaEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches trend toward lower total games, and Kasatkina's straight-set wins typically finish under 20.5 games.
- Kasatkina's last 15 matches averaged 21.3 total games, but her hard-court matches averaged 20.1 games.
- Bolkvadze's last 15 matches averaged 20.9 total games, with hard-court matches averaging 20.6 games.
- In Kasatkina's 5 hard-court wins this year, total games were 18, 18, 20, 20, 20 (all under 20.5 except one push).
- Bolkvadze's 3 hard-court wins had total games of 19, 20, 28 (the 28-game match was against a player ranked 862).
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kasatkina's typical winning margin and Bolkvadze's struggles against higher-ranked players support a -3.5 game handicap.
- Kasatkina's average game margin in wins: +5.2 games (last 15 wins).
- Bolkvadze's average game margin in losses: -5.1 games (last 15 losses).
- On hard courts, Kasatkina's wins have an average margin of +4.8 games.
- Bolkvadze's hard-court losses have an average margin of -4.3 games, but against top-100 opponents it's -6.2.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDaria Kasatkina -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kasatkina's tendency to win first sets comfortably, especially on hard courts, supports a low-game first set.
- Kasatkina's last 15 first-set average games: 9.2, with 8 of 15 sets under 9.5 games.
- Bolkvadze's last 15 first-set average games: 9.5, with 7 of 15 sets under 9.5 games.
- On hard courts, Kasatkina's first-set average is 9.1 games, Bolkvadze's is 9.6 games.
- In Kasatkina's 5 hard-court wins, first-set games were 8, 8, 9, 9, 10 (4 of 5 under 9.5).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kasatkina's comfortable second-set wins on hard courts suggest a low-game second set, though Bolkvadze's competitiveness adds uncertainty.
- Kasatkina's last 15 second-set average games: 9.1, with 9 of 15 sets under 9.5.
- Bolkvadze's last 15 second-set average games: 9.3, with 8 of 15 sets under 9.5.
- On hard courts, Kasatkina's second-set average is 8.9 games, Bolkvadze's is 9.4 games.
- In Kasatkina's 5 hard-court wins, second-set games were 7, 8, 8, 9, 10 (4 of 5 under 9.5).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Kasatkina's strong first-set record and superior serve performance give her a high probability of winning the opening set.
- Kasatkina won the first set in 10 of her last 15 matches (67%), including 4 of 5 hard-court wins.
- Bolkvadze lost the first set in 7 of her last 15 matches (47%), and in 4 of 7 hard-court matches.
- Kasatkina's career first-set win percentage on hard courts is 62%, while Bolkvadze's is 55%.
- Kasatkina's first-serve points won in last 15 overall is 61.3% vs. Bolkvadze's 59.4%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaria KasatkinaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Kasatkina's dominance in second sets on hard courts, combined with Bolkvadze's poor second-set record, makes a Kasatkina set-2 win likely.
- Kasatkina won the second set in 9 of her last 15 matches (60%), including all 5 hard-court wins.
- Bolkvadze lost the second set in 8 of her last 15 matches (53%), and in 5 of 7 hard-court matches.
- Kasatkina's second-set win percentage on hard courts this year is 71% (5-2).
- Bolkvadze's second-set win percentage on hard courts this year is 29% (2-5).
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonDaria KasatkinaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Kasatkina's strong first-set performance and Bolkvadze's struggles against higher-ranked players suggest a straight-set win is likely.
- Kasatkina's first-set win conversion rate is 90% career, and she won the first set in 10 of her last 15 matches.
- Bolkvadze's first-set win conversion is 88%, but she lost the first set in 7 of her last 15 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
- Kasatkina's last 15 hard-court matches show a 44.4% win rate, but she won 4 of her 5 hard-court wins in straight sets this year.
- Bolkvadze's last 15 hard-court matches: 3 wins, all in straight sets, but against opponents ranked 382, 590, 862.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostDaria Kasatkina 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low tiebreak frequencies in recent matches, and Kasatkina's straight-set wins often avoid tiebreaks.
- Kasatkina's last 15 matches: only 3 tiebreaks played (20% of matches).
- Bolkvadze's last 15 matches: 4 tiebreaks played (27% of matches).
- Kasatkina's career tiebreak win percentage is 48%, Bolkvadze's is 46%.
- On hard courts, Kasatkina's matches have tiebreaks in 18% of sets, Bolkvadze's in 22%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bolkvadze's exceptionally high double-fault rate (9.2 per match) alone pushes the combined total well over 10.5, even if Kasatkina's rate is moderate.
- Kasatkina averages 5.1 double faults per match in last 15, with 6.7 on grass and 4.1 on clay, but hard-court data is limited.
- Bolkvadze averages 9.2 double faults per match in last 15, with 9.4 on hard courts specifically.
- Combined, their last 15 averages sum to 14.3 double faults per match.
- Bolkvadze's double-fault rate is extremely high, with 119 double faults in 13 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts, and their combined average is well under 3.5, making the under likely.
- Kasatkina averages 1.8 aces per match in last 15, with 1.8 on hard courts.
- Bolkvadze averages 0.6 aces per match in last 15, with 0.7 on hard courts.
- Combined average: 2.4 aces per match, with a maximum of 5 in any single match (Kasatkina 3, Bolkvadze 2).
- Neither player is a big server; Kasatkina's career ace rate is 1.4 per match, Bolkvadze's is 0.8.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Daria Kasatkina

8W 7L

6-1 6-3#13Naomi Osaka

6-7(5) 6-1 6-4#38Janice Tjen

6-2 3-6 6-2#327Mingge Xu

6-3 7-6(3)#46Mccartney Kessler

6-3 6-2#105Anna Blinkova

5-7 6-0 6-4#194Robin Montgomery

6-0 7-5#1Aryna Sabalenka

7-5 7-6(11)#160Susan Bandecchi

6-4 6-4#48Zeynep Sonmez

7-6(3) 3-6 6-2#41Jaqueline Cristian

6-1 6-3#57Peyton Stearns

7-5 6-3#69Liudmila Samsonova

6-4 6-2#102Anastasia Zakharova

6-3 6-1#544Valentina Steiner

6-2 6-3#53Caty McNally

Mariam Bolkvadze

8W 7L

6-3 5-7 6-0—Unknown Player

6-1 6-0#65Ashlyn Krueger

6-2 2-6 6-4#94Ajla Tomljanovic

6-4 4-6 6-3#128Jeline Vandromme

6-3 6-2#220Hayu Kinoshita

6-4 7-6(6)#107Julia Grabher

6-3 6-4#222Francisca Jorge

7-6(7) 6-1#225Nao Hibino

1-6 1-0 ret.#488Esther Adeshina

6-4 7-6(5)#508Emily Appleton

6-3 6-4#382Vaishnavi Adkar

6-4 6-4#590Marie Weckerle

6-7(5) 6-3 6-0#862Iveta Dapkute

6-4 6-2—Greta Nemcsek

1-6 6-4 6-0#352Berfu Cengiz

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DKDaria KasatkinaKasatkina

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Mariam BolkvadzeBolkvadzeMB

Daria Kasatkina carries the stronger recent form — Mariam Bolkvadze's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1572.2%+6.4pp65.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1561.3%+1.9pp59.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1536.2%—36.3%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/151.8+1.20.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/155.14.1 fewer9.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1546.7%+1.4pp48.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1555.0%+8.3pp46.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1555.0%+8.6pp46.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1550.7%+0.9pp49.8%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 6 vs 5

Winners / Match6/15 · 5/1519.3+4.315.0

Unforced Errors / Match6/15 · 5/1528.77.7 fewer21.0

Net Pts Won6/15 · 5/1580.0%+14.8pp65.2%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

72.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+6.4pp65.8%

61.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+1.9pp59.4%

36.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15—36.3%

1.8Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+1.20.6

5.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/154.1 fewer9.2

Return · 0–1

46.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+1.4pp48.1%

Pressure · 2–0

55.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+8.3pp46.7%

55.0%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+8.6pp46.4%

Points · 1–0

50.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+0.9pp49.8%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 6 vs 5

19.3Winners6/15 · 5/15+4.315.0

28.7Unforced Errors6/15 · 5/157.7 fewer21.0

80.0%Net Pts Won6/15 · 5/15+14.8pp65.2%