ItalyFlorence - ItalyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Alex Marti Pujolras #484Spain0Sandro Kopp #308Austria2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSandro Kopp · 176 places

Alex Marti Pujolras

Spain

Spanish right-hander, born 10 February 1999. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface and a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 318 in July 2025.

Current ranking: #484
Peak ranking: #318 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Sandro Kopp

Austria

Austrian player, age 26. His available 2026 ITF record is concentrated on clay; a reliably dated career-high ranking was not confirmed against the supplied current ranking.

Current ranking: #308
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 20:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Two seed-beaters meet for a place in the Florence semifinal: the 484th-ranked qualifier Marti Pujolras against the higher-ranked Kopp.

Marti Pujolras has the better clay numbers and looks the likelier winner, and the prices of 2.2 to win, 2.05 for the first set, 2.1 for the second and 3.3 for a 2-0 win are all generous. Kopp at 1.6 is not.

Context

The 176-place ranking gap between the two men is not visible in the calibre of opponent either has handled in Florence: Kopp removed the third seed in straight sets after a first-set tiebreak, and Marti Pujolras conceded three games against a top-250 eighth seed. That matters because it removes the usual reading of a 484-ranked qualifier as someone surviving on low-ranked wins this week, and gives the match two players arriving with a verified result against clearly higher-ranked opposition. The limit is scale: these were round-of-32 and round-of-16 wins at a 32-draw Challenger, and a single week at this level is a narrow base for comparing their baselines.
- Kopp defeated third seed Gianluca Cadenasso 7-6(2) 6-1 in the Florence round of 32
- Marti Pujolras defeated eighth seed Andrej Nedic 6-1 6-2 in the round of 16
- Kopp's second-round win over Samuele Pieri finished 4-6 6-3 6-4
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Four matches in five days, two of them in qualifying, is a heavier tournament load than Kopp's two matches, and it sits alongside a first round in which Marti Pujolras lost the second set 1-6 before recovering. That matters for a quarterfinal played the day after both men won, because accumulated match volume is the one physical variable that clearly separates them this week. The counterpoint is time rather than count: Marti Pujolras's 6-1 6-2 win over Nedic was far shorter than Kopp's three-set, come-from-a-set-down finish against Pieri the same day, so match count and minutes on court point in opposite directions.
- Marti Pujolras beat Izan Almazan Valiente 7-6(3) 6-1 in the final qualifying round, his fourth qualifying event of the year
- Marti Pujolras beat Pierluigi Basile 6-4 1-6 6-3 in the first round after dropping the second set 1-6
- Kopp's first Florence match was the round of 32 against Cadenasso
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:55 · Europe/Bucharest
The qualifier has closed out most of his clay wins in two sets, which matters in a best-of-three.
Across 15 clay matches from 19 August to 22 October he has eight 2-0 wins, one 2-1, three 0-2 defeats and three 1-2 defeats, with sets averaging 2.27 and games 21.2. That leans toward a short quarterfinal. Kopp, though, needed three sets to beat Pieri on 22 October, so a stretched match is the clear counter.
- Set evidence from 15 completed clay matches, 19 Aug–22 Oct 2026: 2-0 x8, 2-1 x1, 0-2 x3, 1-2 x3
- Average 2.27 sets and 21.2 games per match in the same 15-match sample
The second set has been the weaker half of Kopp's clay matches this season.
His first sets are close to even at 7-8, so the drop comes after the opener: over the 15-match sample from 1 August to 22 October he won 4.27 second-set games and lost 5.07. That is the part of the match where Marti Pujolras has been strongest at 11-4. It is a small sample, and Kopp did take the second set 6-3 in his latest win over Pieri.
- Second sets in 15 clay matches, 1 Aug–22 Oct 2026: 5 won, 10 lost
- Second-set games 4.27 won and 5.07 lost, with two tiebreaks in that sample

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Marti Pujolras has the better clay results and return numbers, and he is playing well enough in Florence to be a narrow favourite.
- Marti Pujolras is 9-6 on clay in the last 15 with 51.3% total points won; Kopp is 6-9 with 49.1%.
- Marti Pujolras has won four straight matches in Florence, including 6-1 6-2 over No. 237 Andrej Nedic.
- Kopp has won his last two, including a 7-6(2) 6-1 win over No. 183 Gianluca Cadenasso.
- Marti Pujolras returns 43.1% of points on clay versus 36.3% for Kopp.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlex Marti PujolrasEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have generally been shorter than first sets for both players, especially when Marti Pujolras leads.
- Marti Pujolras' second sets average 9.0 games; Kopp's average 9.33.
- Both second-set averages sit below the 9.5 line.
- Marti Pujolras has won second sets 11-4 on clay, often by a break.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have often reached at least 10 games, and both players have tiebreak experience on clay.
- Marti Pujolras' first sets average 9.8 games; Kopp's average 10.0.
- Marti Pujolras has four first-set tiebreaks in 15; Kopp also has four.
- Both first-set averages are at or above the line.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both records, and Marti Pujolras in particular has closed most wins in two sets.
- 11 of 15 matches for each player have finished in straight sets.
- Both average 2.27 sets per match on clay.
- Marti Pujolras has eight 2-0 wins; Kopp has seven 0-2 losses.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Marti Pujolras has a clear second-set advantage on clay and has been stronger after the opening set.
- Marti Pujolras is 11-4 in second sets on clay; Kopp is 5-10.
- Marti Pujolras won the second set in four of his last six matches.
- Kopp lost the second set in four of his last six matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAlex Marti PujolrasEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Marti Pujolras has started strongly in Florence and has the better first-set record on clay.
- Marti Pujolras is 9-6 in first sets on clay; Kopp is 7-8.
- Marti Pujolras won the first set in five of his last six matches.
- Kopp lost the first set in four of his last six matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlex Marti PujolrasEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their completed clay matches have avoided a tiebreak, and straight-set wins are common.
- Marti Pujolras has 10 of 15 matches without a tiebreak; Kopp has nine.
- Both have straight-set wins with no tiebreak.
- Their first-set tiebreak rates are 4 of 15 each.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined ace average is just above the line, and a longer match would add serve opportunities.
- Marti Pujolras averages 2.3 aces; Kopp averages 2.5, combining to 4.8.
- Both have low ace counts but the sum is above the line.
- A three-set match would add service games.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopp's low double-fault rate offsets Marti Pujolras' higher count, keeping the combined total near or under the line.
- Marti Pujolras averages 4.7 double faults; Kopp averages 2.5.
- Kopp has kept double faults low at 2.5 per match.
- The combined average of 7.2 is under the line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Alex Marti Pujolras: 1/4 recent winner projections matched

1 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Alex Marti Pujolras matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Alex Marti Pujolras4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

12 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#461Alex Marti Pujolras0-2#871Abel Forger

BetBugsAlex Marti Pujolras to win·72%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#461Alex Marti Pujolras0-2#871Abel Forger

Alex Marti Pujolras to win

72%probability

Abel Forger won

Missed

15 Jun·Poznan - Poland

#526Max Hans Rehberg2-0#469Alex Marti Pujolras

BetBugsAlex Marti Pujolras to win·62%

Missed

15 Jun 2026

Poznan - Poland

#526Max Hans Rehberg2-0#469Alex Marti Pujolras

Alex Marti Pujolras to win

62%probability

Max Hans Rehberg won

Missed

7 Jun·Bratislava - Slovakia

#473Alex Marti Pujolras2-0#341Benjamin Hassan

BetBugsAlex Marti Pujolras to win·62%

Matched

7 Jun 2026

Bratislava - Slovakia

#473Alex Marti Pujolras2-0#341Benjamin Hassan

Alex Marti Pujolras to win

62%probability

Alex Marti Pujolras won

Matched

2 Jun·Heilbronn - Germany

#195Luka Mikrut2-0#473Alex Marti Pujolras

BetBugsAlex Marti Pujolras to win·62%

Missed

2 Jun 2026

Heilbronn - Germany

#195Luka Mikrut2-0#473Alex Marti Pujolras

Alex Marti Pujolras to win

62%probability

Luka Mikrut won

Missed

Previous match context available

Alex Marti Pujolras

9W 6L

6-1 6-2#237Andrej Nedic 6-4 1-6 6-3#514Pierluigi Basile 7-6(3) 6-1#409Izan Almazan Valiente 6-4 7-5—Jakub Vrba

6-3 6-4#631Kai Wehnelt

6-2 6-1#660John Sperle

7-6(3) 6-7(4) 6-1#811Filippo Moroni

7-6(6) 1-6 7-6(5)#640Ignacio Parisca

7-5 7-6(5)#737Nico Hipfl

6-4 6-3#273Stefano Napolitano

6-1 6-1#555Dimitris Sakellaridis

7-6(7) 7-6(8)#509Maximo Zeitune

6-3 6-0#304Oriol Roca Batalla

6-0 6-1—Oleg Covian Roca de Togores

6-1 3-6 6-1#360Dimitar Kuzmanov

Sandro Kopp

6W 9L

4-6 6-3 6-4#312Samuele Pieri

7-6(2) 6-1#183Gianluca Cadenasso

2-6 7-6(3) 6-1#254Buvaysar Gadamauri

7-5 6-4#299Jonas Forejtek

6-3 6-3#320Dali Blanch

7-6(5) 6-2#265Matias Soto

6-3 6-3#362Norbert Gombos

6-3 7-5#275Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#269Martin Krumich

7-6(3) 6-4#195Mika Brunold

6-1 6-7(4) 6-1#355Eduardo Ribeiro

3-6 6-1 6-4#497Benjamin Hassan

6-4 6-1#532Luca Wiedenmann

6-1 6-1#372Sebastian Sorger

7-6(6) 6-3#372Sebastian Sorger

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAlex Marti PujolrasPujolras

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Sandro KoppKoppSK

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.5%+2.1pp65.6%

1st Serve Won67.4%+1.3pp66.1%

2nd Serve Won45.5%+7.1pp52.6%

Aces / Match2.3—2.5

Double Faults / Match4.72.2 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.1%+6.8pp36.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.0%+7.4pp36.6%

Break Pts Saved60.6%+1.3pp61.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.3%+2.2pp49.1%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

63.5%1st Serve In+2.1pp65.6%

67.4%1st Serve Won+1.3pp66.1%

45.5%2nd Serve Won+7.1pp52.6%

2.3Aces / Match—2.5

4.7Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

43.1%Return Pts Won+6.8pp36.3%

Pressure · 1–1

44.0%Break Pts Converted+7.4pp36.6%

60.6%Break Pts Saved+1.3pp61.9%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won+2.2pp49.1%

Alex Marti Pujolras

Sandro Kopp

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alex Marti Pujolras

Alex Marti Pujolras

Alex Marti Pujolras

Alex Marti Pujolras 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Alex Marti Pujolras

Sandro Kopp

Stat Battle