ItalyFlorence - ItalyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Samuele Pieri #312Italy1Sandro Kopp #308Austria2

Sets 6-4 · 3-6 · 4-6Thu 22 Oct 2026, 11:45 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSandro Kopp · 4 places

Samuele Pieri

Italy

Italian player, born February 28, 2002. Public player databases list a career-best No. 398 in June 2026; no current injury or absence signal was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #312
Peak ranking: #398 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Sandro Kopp

Austria

Austrian player, age 26. His available 2026 ITF record is concentrated on clay; a reliably dated career-high ranking was not confirmed against the supplied current ranking.

Current ranking: #308
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 08:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Pieri's stronger clay record and local wildcard status meet Kopp's straight-sets first-round win that ended a six-match slide in the Florence second round.

Pieri is the likelier winner, and the 2.10 match price and 2.05 second-set price both offer something; Kopp at 1.65 to win and 1.70 for the second set does not.

Context

Bari was Pieri's first Challenger final and he won the title match in straight sets, three weeks before this round-of-16 tie and on the same clay surface. It is the result behind his move from a listed career-best of No. 398 in June to No. 312 now, so it defines the level he brings into Florence rather than serving as background. The limitation is what followed: a 6-0 6-2 loss to Daniel Rincon in Olbia eight days later, which shows the title has not yet produced consecutive good weeks.
- Beat Juan Cruz Martin Manzano 6-4 6-1 in the Bari final
- First ATP Challenger singles title of his career, at ATP 50 level on clay
- Came from a set down to beat Vitaliy Sachko, ranked 179, in the semi-final
- Followed the title with a 6-0 6-2 loss to Daniel Rincon in Olbia on 13 October
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest
Kopp arrived in Florence with six straight defeats between 28 August and 12 October, five of them in straight sets, and his ranking of No. 308 reflects that run. Beating a top-200 opponent 7-6(2) 6-1 is the first time in that stretch he has held his clay baseline game against a higher-ranked player without a third-set scramble. The limitation is that Cadenasso is the only top-200 scalp in the sequence; the six defeats came against opponents ranked between No. 254 and No. 362, so one clean day does not establish a new level.
- Beat Gianluca Cadenasso, ranked 183, 7-6(2) 6-1
- First win since beating Martin Krumich on 27 August
- Six consecutive defeats between 28 August and 12 October, five of them in straight sets
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest
That split matters in a best-of-three match: a lost second set either ends the match or forces a decider. His first sets are close to level, 8-7 with 5.13 games won to 4.87 lost, so the drop is specific to the second set. The sample is 15 clay matches from 31 July to 20 October, and five of his wins came in straight sets, so the pattern has not stopped him from winning. The split remains clear across the same sample.
- Across 15 clay matches from 31 July to 20 October, Kopp won 5 of 15 second sets and averaged 4.27 games won to 5.13 lost.
- Across the same 15 matches, he won 8 of 15 opening sets and averaged 5.13 games won to 4.87 lost.
- His clay scorelines included five 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, and seven 0-2 defeats.
That contrast matters because it leaves him with fewer break chances and more pressure on his own serve. His first serves have been a solid base: 66.1% in and 66.7% of those points won. The return is much weaker, at 36.6% of return points and 36.6% of break points converted. The 15-match sample is modest, and the 6-9 record shows the serve numbers have not produced consistent wins.
- In the 15-match clay sample ending 20 October, Kopp landed 66.1% of first serves and won 66.7% of first-serve points.
- In the same sample he won 36.6% of return points and converted 36.6% of break points.
- His record in those 15 matches was 6-9, with 49.4% of total points won.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Pieri has won more clay matches and holds a clear advantage on serve and return points across the same surface sample.
- Pieri on clay: 10-4, 53.6% games won, 52.2% total points won
- Kopp on clay: 6-9, 48.3% games won, 49.4% total points won
- Kopp's clay return points won 36.6% and break points converted 36.6%
- Pieri won the Bari Challenger on clay in early October
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSamuele PieriEstimated chance64%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Individual sets here average close to ten games, which pushes the match beyond the line even in two sets.
- Pieri's clay matches averaged 22.9 total games
- Kopp's clay matches averaged 21.0 total games
- Per-set games averages: Pieri 9.57 and 9.29, Kopp 10.0 and 9.4
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopp's opening sets regularly reach ten games or more, often through a tiebreak.
- Kopp's clay opening sets averaged 10.0 total games, with four tiebreaks in fifteen
- Pieri's clay opening sets averaged 9.57 total games
- Kopp's first-round opener finished 7-6
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopp's second sets have frequently gone decisively one way, which produces shorter sets.
- Kopp's clay second sets averaged 9.4 total games
- Kopp lost second sets 6-1 and 6-2 in his last two clay defeats
- Only two second-set tiebreaks for Kopp in fifteen clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' clay matches this season ended after two sets.
- Kopp finished 2-0 in five of six clay wins
- Kopp's clay matches averaged 2.20 sets
- Pieri went 2-0 five times in fourteen clay matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Kopp's second sets have been his weakest part of the match throughout this clay run.
- Pieri won 8 of 14 clay second sets
- Kopp won only 5 of 15 clay second sets
- Kopp's clay set-two game average is 4.27 won to 5.13 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSamuele PieriEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pieri's overall edge is modest in first sets, where both players have nearly identical records.
- Pieri won 8 of 14 clay opening sets
- Kopp won 8 of 15 clay opening sets
- Pieri's clay set-one game average is 4.86 won to 4.71 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSamuele PieriEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The large majority of sets in these two players' clay matches finish without a tiebreak.
- Pieri had a tiebreak in just 1 of 14 clay matches
- Kopp had none in 9 of 15 clay matches
- Combined set-level tiebreak count is 8 across 58 sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player serves at a high ace rate, keeping the combined total near five.
- Combined ace average of about 5.1 per match
- Pieri lands 61.5% of first serves on clay, Kopp 66.1%
- Kopp's two clay matches in October produced few aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopp's double-fault rate alone is close to two per match, lifting the combined total near the line.
- Pieri averages 1.2 double faults per clay match
- Kopp averages 2.3 double faults per clay match
- Kopp has 35 double faults in 15 clay matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Samuele Pieri: 2/7 recent winner projections matched

2 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Samuele Pieri matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Samuele Pieri7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Bonn - Germany

—Moritz Kudernatsch0-2#398Samuele Pieri

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

—Moritz Kudernatsch0-2#398Samuele Pieri

Samuele Pieri to win

62%probability

Samuele Pieri won

Matched

19 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#401Samuele Pieri1-2#369Petr Nesterov

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·58%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#401Samuele Pieri1-2#369Petr Nesterov

Samuele Pieri to win

58%probability

Petr Nesterov won

Missed

12 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#406Samuele Pieri0-2#732Giorgio Tabacco

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·72%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#406Samuele Pieri0-2#732Giorgio Tabacco

Samuele Pieri to win

72%probability

Giorgio Tabacco won

Missed

6 Jul·Braunschweig - Germany

#406Samuele Pieri1-2#484Rudolf Molleker

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·58%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

Braunschweig - Germany

#406Samuele Pieri1-2#484Rudolf Molleker

Samuele Pieri to win

58%probability

Rudolf Molleker won

Missed

9 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#398Samuele Pieri0-2#327Oriol Roca Batalla

BetBugsSamuele Pieri to win·55%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#398Samuele Pieri0-2#327Oriol Roca Batalla

Samuele Pieri to win

55%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Missed

Previous match context available

Samuele Pieri

10W 5L

6-4 3-6 6-2#342Miguel Damas

6-0 6-2#235Daniel Rincon

6-0 6-4#269Martin Krumich

6-4 6-1#371Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

5-7 6-4 6-2#175Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 4-6 6-3#447Carlos Taberner

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#334Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#358Andrej Martin

6-4 6-2#371Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-1 6-3#212Alex Barrena

5-7 6-2 7-5#392Gabriele Piraino

4-6 6-3 6-4#556Sebastian Dominko

4-6 6-2 6-4#372Sebastian Sorger

6-1 6-1#596Andrea De Marchi

6-1 7-5—Nicolo Toffanin

Sandro Kopp

6W 9L

7-6(2) 6-1#183Gianluca Cadenasso

2-6 7-6(3) 6-1#254Buvaysar Gadamauri

7-5 6-4#299Jonas Forejtek

6-3 6-3#320Dali Blanch

7-6(5) 6-2#265Matias Soto

6-3 6-3#362Norbert Gombos

6-3 7-5#275Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#269Martin Krumich

7-6(3) 6-4#195Mika Brunold

6-1 6-7(4) 6-1#355Eduardo Ribeiro

3-6 6-1 6-4#497Benjamin Hassan

6-4 6-1#532Luca Wiedenmann

6-1 6-1#372Sebastian Sorger

7-6(6) 6-3#372Sebastian Sorger

6-4 6-4#601Adrian Andreev

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SPSamuele PieriPieri

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Sandro KoppKoppSK

Samuele Pieri carries the stronger recent form — Sandro Kopp's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1561.6%+4.5pp66.1%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1563.7%+3.0pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1553.8%+0.9pp52.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.4—2.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.40.9 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1542.2%+5.6pp36.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1544.0%+7.4pp36.6%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1565.8%+5.6pp60.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1551.3%+1.9pp49.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+4.5pp66.1%

63.7%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.0pp66.7%

53.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+0.9pp52.9%

2.4Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15—2.6

1.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.9 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

42.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.6pp36.6%

Pressure · 2–0

44.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+7.4pp36.6%

65.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+5.6pp60.2%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.9pp49.4%