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Predictions graded

Raphael Collignon #55Belgium0Jiri Lehecka #20Czechia2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Thu 22 Oct 2026, 11:35 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions7–370%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJiri Lehecka · 35 places

Raphael Collignon

Belgium

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 37 in July 2026. His documented 2026 results include a runner-up finish at Gstaad after several extended clay-court matches.

Current ranking: #55
Peak ranking: #37 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Jiri Lehecka

Czechia

Reached career-high No. 12 in May 2026 after his first Masters 1000 final in Miami. ATP lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #20
Peak ranking: #12 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 07:55 · Europe/Bucharest

The tension in this second-round match is a home player with a three-set win already behind him against a top-20 seed who has not played since 12 October.

Lehecka is the likelier winner, but 1.22 to win and 1.73 for a 2-0 victory ask too much. Collignon at 4.25 to win and 3.20 to take the first set are the two worthwhile prices, though he has lost the opening set in three of his last four hard matches.

Context

A seven-week absence ended only two days before this match, and the opener cost Collignon a set and a long, nervy service game at the end. He has one competitive match behind him against a top-20 seed who arrives with a bye, so how his level and his body hold up across a second consecutive day of best-of-three is close to unmeasured. He did close the match out, which makes availability the settled question and match sharpness the open one.
- Collignon beat Nishesh Basavareddy 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 in his Brussels opener .
- The match was his first at tour level since Gstaad in July, after roughly seven weeks out with knee pain.
- He saved break points while serving for the match and converted his first match point.
- Collignon is 24 and ranked No. 55.
ReportedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Both men already have a deep run on this specific court, which matters more than usual in a room where the serve is dominant and the margins are a couple of points per set. Lehecka has the larger block of ranking points to protect as the 2025 finalist, Collignon the smaller semi-final haul, and both drop them at the end of the week rather than in this round. The practical read for this match is court familiarity and confidence in the conditions, not ranking pressure on the day.
- Auger-Aliassime, Lehecka, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Collignon were the 2025 semi-finalists.
- Lehecka lost the 2025 final to Auger-Aliassime.
- Collignon reached the 2025 semi-finals on a wild card.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Short points and few break chances push a match like this toward a handful of service games and, quite often, tiebreaks, which is where two tall first-strike servers like Lehecka and the 191cm Collignon are most exposed to a single loose point. The 2025 numbers are the anchor, but the 2026 qualifying sample was meaningfully lower on both holds and first-serve points, so the court may not play as quick as last year. Which court the match is assigned to also matters, given the gap between centre and the outside courts.
- In 2025 Brussels produced 88.6% service games held and 76.7% of first-serve points won.
- That edition averaged roughly 0.39 tiebreaks per set.
- Centre court at the venue plays slower than the outside courts.
- The 2026 qualifying sample was lower, at 82% holds and 73% of first-serve points won.
ReportedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:53 · Europe/Bucharest
The Tokyo week is the strongest recent evidence of Lehecka's level on quick hard courts, and the final itself was decided by a first-set tiebreak and a single break. The more recent data point is the Shanghai third round, where he won the opening set against a 20-year-old and lost the next two, leaving him with one win from his last two matches. Two completed matches in the fortnight before Brussels is thin, so the Tokyo run describes his ceiling better than his current rhythm.
- Lehecka lost the Tokyo final 7-6(4), 6-4 to Alcaraz .
- He beat Nuno Borges 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 in Shanghai.
- He lost 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4 to Rafael Jodar in Shanghai after winning the first set.
- Lehecka is 24 and ranked No. 20.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:53 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Jiri Lehecka 2-0

1.73fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 57.8%

−15.8ppshort

Lehecka starts sets strongly and Collignon has rarely held a set on this surface.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lehecka serves and holds noticeably better and has been winning at a higher level on this surface.
- Lehecka 10-5 on hard in his last 15, winning 61% of sets and 53.9% of games
- Collignon 1-4 on hard in his last five, with 33% of sets and 47.7% of games won
- Lehecka won the only meeting 6-4 6-4 6-4 in 2025
- Lehecka 77.6% first-serve points and 54.4% second-serve points vs 68.4% and 46% for Collignon
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJiri LeheckaEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most scenarios where Lehecka wins come with a margin of two games or more.
- Lehecka +31 games across his last 15 matches (215-184)
- Collignon -7 games in five hard matches (73-80)
- Lehecka won 2-0 in four of 12 hard matches and 2-1 in four
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJiri Lehecka -1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the longer, tighter part of both players' recent matches.
- Collignon's second sets averaged 11 games on hard
- Lehecka's averaged 10.58
- Four of Lehecka's 12 hard matches had a set-two tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Collignon has usually stayed within a few games even when losing on hard.
- Collignon's five hard matches finished 15-13, 24-25, 18-17, 9-13 and 7-12 in games
- Collignon averages a game deficit rather than a rout on hard
- Lehecka's average game margin across 15 matches is about two
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRaphael Collignon +3.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches sit around or above this line.
- Collignon's hard matches averaged 26 total games across four matches
- Lehecka's averaged 24.8 across 12
- Both players average over eight aces per match on hard
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lehecka's serve gives him the better start, and Collignon has routinely gone behind early.
- Lehecka won set one in 8 of 12 best-of-three hard matches
- Collignon lost set one in 3 of 4 hard matches
- Lehecka averaged 5.25 games to 4.33 in set one
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJiri LeheckaEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lehecka remains the likelier set winner even though his second sets have been split.
- Lehecka won set two in 6 of 12 hard matches, losing 6
- Collignon won set two once in four hard matches
- Lehecka has the higher overall game share, 53.9% to 47.7%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJiri LeheckaEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the slight norm for both players' recent hard-court matches.
- Six of Lehecka's last 12 hard matches finished in straight sets
- Three of Collignon's last four hard matches finished in straight sets
- Collignon won only 33.3% of sets on hard
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Collignon's double-fault rate is high enough that his count alone approaches the line.
- Collignon 8.2 double faults per match on hard (41 in five)
- Lehecka 2.2 per match (29 in 13)
- Collignon alone averaged over eight in his last five hard matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent hard-court sets were broken before reaching a tiebreak.
- Seven of Lehecka's 12 hard matches had no tiebreak
- Two of Collignon's four hard matches had none
- Set-one tiebreaks were rare: none for Collignon, one for Lehecka
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With a straight-sets scoreline plausible, the combined ace total can fall short.
- Collignon 43 aces in five hard matches
- Lehecka 108 aces in 13 matches
- Both players' aces come from a two-to-two-and-a-half set average
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 16.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Jiri Lehecka: 10/14 recent winner projections matched

10 of 14 comparable winner projections favouring Jiri Lehecka matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jiri Lehecka14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#12Jiri Lehecka1-2#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong

BetBugsJiri Lehecka to win·78%

Missed

30 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#12Jiri Lehecka1-2#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Jiri Lehecka to win

78%probability

Chak Lam Coleman Wong won

Missed

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#14Jiri Lehecka3-0#101Alex Molcan

BetBugsJiri Lehecka to win·78%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#14Jiri Lehecka3-0#101Alex Molcan

Jiri Lehecka to win

78%probability

Jiri Lehecka won

Matched

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#14Jiri Lehecka3-0#100Alexei Popyrin

BetBugsJiri Lehecka to win·78%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#14Jiri Lehecka3-0#100Alexei Popyrin

Jiri Lehecka to win

78%probability

Jiri Lehecka won

Matched

18 Jun·ATP London

#104Rinky Hijikata2-1#12Jiri Lehecka

BetBugsJiri Lehecka to win·65%

Missed

18 Jun 2026

ATP London

#104Rinky Hijikata2-1#12Jiri Lehecka

Jiri Lehecka to win

65%probability

Rinky Hijikata won

Missed

12 Jun·ATP Stuttgart

#12Jiri Lehecka2-0#26Frances Tiafoe

BetBugsJiri Lehecka to win·62%

Matched

12 Jun 2026

ATP Stuttgart

#12Jiri Lehecka2-0#26Frances Tiafoe

Jiri Lehecka to win

62%probability

Jiri Lehecka won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-4 6-4Raphael Collignon#55vJiri Lehecka#20Aug 29, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Raphael Collignon

6W 9L

3-6 6-3 6-4#134Nishesh Basavareddy

3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#406Sebastian Gorzny

3-6 7-6(7) 7-6(5)#86Rinky Hijikata

6-3 7-6(3)#45Mariano Navone

6-4 6-3#126Alexei Popyrin

6-3 6-2#65Daniel Altmaier

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

1-6 7-6(5) 7-5#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(7) 4-6 7-5#32Valentin Vacherot

7-6(2) 7-6(5)#89Lorenzo Sonego

3-6 7-6(1) 6-4#201Timofey Skatov

7-5 6-1 6-3#10Arthur Fils

6-4 4-6 7-6(5)#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(10) 7-6(2)#2Alexander Zverev

4-6 6-4 6-3#68Mattia Bellucci

Jiri Lehecka

10W 5L

4-6 7-6(2) 6-4#11Rafael Jodar

6-3 3-6 6-3#52Nuno Borges

7-6(4) 6-4#3Carlos Alcaraz

6-4 6-2#32Valentin Vacherot

6-1 6-1#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

5-7 6-4 6-4#35Ugo Humbert

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#41Zizou Bergs

6-3 7-5#18Learner Tien

6-4 6-4#4Ben Shelton

2-6 6-1 7-6(3) 6-1#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-4 6-2 6-4#96Toby Samuel

6-1 7-6(5) 4-6 6-2#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-1 6-7(7) 6-3#10Arthur Fils

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#43Matteo Berrettini

6-3 6-3#11Rafael Jodar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RCRaphael CollignonCollignon

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Jiri LeheckaLeheckaJL

Jiri Lehecka carries the stronger recent form — Raphael Collignon's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1561.8%+1.7pp60.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1574.3%+3.3pp77.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1546.5%+7.9pp54.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/158.5—8.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/156.54.3 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1532.9%+2.3pp35.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1532.3%+5.2pp37.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1566.1%+12.3pp53.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1548.5%+3.0pp51.5%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

61.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+1.7pp60.1%

74.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+3.3pp77.6%

46.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+7.9pp54.4%

8.5Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15—8.3

6.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/154.3 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

32.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+2.3pp35.2%

Pressure · 1–1

32.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+5.2pp37.5%

66.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+12.3pp53.8%

Points · 0–1

48.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+3.0pp51.5%