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Predictions graded

Liam Broady #233United Kingdom0Akira Santillan #309Australia2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Thu 22 Oct 2026, 04:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLiam Broady · 76 places

Liam Broady

United Kingdom

British left-hander, 32, ranked No. 203 with hard courts listed as his preferred surface. He has spent 2026 largely on the Challenger and qualifying circuit, with four wins in his last 15 matches.

Current ranking: #233
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Akira Santillan

Australia

Santillan, 29, reached a career-high No. 144 in November 2017. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #309
Peak ranking: #144 · 2017
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 07:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Broady is the favourite at 1.45 despite a 2-9 hard-court run against Santillan's 7-8, and the first set has been his weakest stretch.

Santillan looks the likelier winner, and at 2.6 for the match and 2.3 for the opening set both prices are worth taking. Broady at 1.45 and 1.55 are the ones to leave.

Context

Broady arrived with 11 defeats in his previous 15 matches and only two wins in nine on hard courts, so losing nine straight to opponents ranked from 37 to 620 is what his recent record actually described, including a 6-4 6-4 loss to Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg at Roanne eight days earlier. Ending that run changes the meaning of the sample: the first win of his Asian swing came in his opening match of the week against a qualifier who had already won two matches on the site. It still needed three sets after he dropped the opening tiebreak, so it shows the slide has stopped rather than that his level has returned.
- 6-7(5) 6-4 6-2 win over qualifier Dominik Palan in the Guangzhou Nansha first round
- Nine straight defeats between 10 July and 12 October before that win
- Eighth seed in the draw
- Two wins in nine hard-court matches across the tracked 15-match sample
ReportedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:44 · Europe/Bucharestnb-bet.comnb-bet.com · 20 Oct 2026
Broady's left-handed serve has given him little early traction on hard courts in this sample.
The opening set has been the weakest part of Broady's recent hard-court matches, which gives Santillan a foothold in the first set. It is not decisive on its own: Broady won his Guangzhou opener on 20 October after dropping the opening tiebreak, so losing set one has not been fatal this week. The sample is 11 matches, so the 2-9 split is a small one.
- Set-one record of 2-9 across 11 hard-court matches from 29 June to 20 October 2026
- First-set games: 4.55 won and 5.45 lost per set
- Only two first-set tiebreaks in those 11 matches
His own account locates the problem in shot selection rather than fitness: the losing run came from reactive, passive tennis, and the correction he describes is a return to taking risks. The Futures spell from July 2025, started from a ranking in the 800s, is the recent origin of the No. 233 standing he brings into this match, which makes the aggressive approach a deliberate rebuild rather than a mid-career reset. It is his description of the problem, not visible evidence of a higher level, and a three-set win over a qualifier ranked 620 does not yet show the adjustment holding against a better opponent.
- Broady said the losing streak came from reverting to reactive, passive tennis and that he is trying to be more aggressive
- Credited Andy Murray's advice during the Covid period to take more risks rather than merely make balls
- Described playing Futures events from July 2025, when ranked in the 800s, as the base of his climb back
ReportedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:44 · Europe/Bucharest
The doubles title is his only silverware of 2026 and it came in the same Chinese hard-court week in which he reached a third singles quarterfinal of the year, so his Guangzhou arrival followed a run of matches through to an 11 October final rather than an early exit and a rest. For a 29-year-old ranked No. 309 whose season is built on repeated weeks at Challenger level, that is the most productive week of his year and it explains why he came into this event with recent match volume on the surface. Doubles results do not transfer directly into singles, and the nine-day gap before his Guangzhou first round limits how much the title explains his current level.
- Wuning Challenger doubles title on 11 October, won 3-6 6-3 [10-4] against a Russian pair
- First title of the 2026 season
- Third singles quarterfinal of the year at the same event, where he lost to Keisuke Saitoh
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 07:44 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Santillan has the more reliable serve and the better hard-court win rate, making him a modest favourite.
- Current hard-court record: Santillan 7-8, Broady 2-9.
- First-serve in: Santillan 68.3%, Broady 57.3%; aces per match: 6.4 versus 3.8.
- Total points won: Santillan 49.7%, Broady 48.5%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAkira SantillanEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have averaged close to ten games, so a longer opening set is slightly more likely.
- Average first-set games: Broady 10.0, Santillan 9.6.
- First-set tiebreaks: Broady 2 of 11, Santillan 1 of 15.
- Combined first-set average is 9.8 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have recent three-set matches and moderate hold rates, so a longer match is slightly more likely.
- Average total games: Broady 25.4, Santillan 22.5.
- Three-set matches: 5 of 11 for Broady and 6 of 15 for Santillan.
- Tiebreak matches: 7 of 26 combined.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's second sets often extend beyond ten games, giving a longer second set a slight chance.
- Average second-set games: Broady 10.7, Santillan 8.9.
- Broady's second sets have averaged 5.36 games each way.
- Set-two tiebreaks are rare in the sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Santillan starts sets more reliably and Broady has lost most of his opening sets on hard courts.
- Set-one record on hard courts: Santillan 7-8, Broady 2-9.
- Set-one games won average: Santillan 4.67, Broady 4.55.
- First-serve in: Santillan 68.3%, Broady 57.3%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAkira SantillanEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results make up the majority of the combined hard-court sample.
- Straight-set scorelines: 6 of 11 for Broady and 9 of 15 for Santillan.
- Average sets per match: Broady 2.45, Santillan 2.40.
- Three-set rate in the combined sample is 11 of 26.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both second-set records are close, with Santillan slightly more consistent on serve.
- Set-two record on hard courts: Santillan 7-8, Broady 5-6.
- Second-serve points won: Santillan 49.1%, Broady 47.0%.
- Aces per match: Santillan 6.4, Broady 3.8.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAkira SantillanEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most sets in the sample were decided without a tiebreak.
- Matches without a tiebreak: Broady 7 of 11, Santillan 12 of 15.
- Combined tiebreak rate is 7 of 26 matches.
- Only one second-set tiebreak in the sample.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady contributes few aces and many matches finish in two sets.
- Aces per match: Broady 3.8, Santillan 6.4.
- Broady has 42 aces in 11 hard-court matches.
- Combined average is about 10.2, just under the threshold.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 10.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's double-fault rate is high enough to push the combined total above the threshold.
- Double faults per match: Broady 4.3, Santillan 2.7.
- Combined average is about 7.0 per match.
- Broady has 47 double faults in 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance54%

Previous match context available

Liam Broady

4W 11L

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#620Dominik Palan

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 3-6 6-1#251Dominic Stricker

7-6(4) 6-3#164Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-5#421Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-4 7-5#402Ozan Baris

7-5 5-7 6-4#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-5#376Yuta Shimizu

6-4 5-7 7-6(4)#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 7-6(6)#37Alex Michelsen

6-3 7-6(2)#203Andre Ilagan

7-6(4) 6-3#116Aleksandar Vukic

2-6 7-5 7-6(5)#398Jack Kennedy

6-1 6-2#242Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(6) 4-6 7-5#258August Holmgren

Akira Santillan

7W 8L

4-6 6-4 6-3#614Yaroslav Demin

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#478Keisuke Saitoh

6-3 6-3#614Yaroslav Demin

6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#449Luca Castelnuovo

6-2 6-4#207Luka Pavlovic

6-1 2-6 6-4#174Alex Bolt

6-3 6-0—Kaigaoge Kang

6-4 7-6(4)#172Pavel Kotov

7-5 6-3#893Yaojie Zeng

6-4 6-4#180Bernard Tomic

6-4 4-6 6-1#221Ilya Ivashka

6-2 6-3#388Omar Jasika

6-3 6-4#619Sanhui Shin

6-4 6-1#404Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 1-6 6-4#460Digvijaypratap Singh

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LBLiam BroadyBroady

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Akira SantillanSantillanAS

Akira Santillan carries the stronger recent form — Liam Broady's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.7%+9.6pp68.3%

1st Serve Won73.1%+2.2pp70.9%

2nd Serve Won48.5%—49.1%

Aces / Match4.1+2.36.4

Double Faults / Match3.71.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won36.0%+0.9pp35.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted31.1%+6.9pp38.0%

Break Pts Saved64.0%+2.3pp61.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.3%—49.7%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

58.7%1st Serve In+9.6pp68.3%

73.1%1st Serve Won+2.2pp70.9%

48.5%2nd Serve Won—49.1%

4.1Aces / Match+2.36.4

3.7Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

36.0%Return Pts Won+0.9pp35.1%

Pressure · 1–1

31.1%Break Pts Converted+6.9pp38.0%

64.0%Break Pts Saved+2.3pp61.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.3%Total Pts Won—49.7%