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Predictions graded

Borna Gojo #148Croatia0Daniel Altmaier #65Germany2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Thu 22 Oct 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniel Altmaier · 83 places

Borna Gojo

Croatia

A 196 cm Croatian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 72 on 20 November 2023. The supplied structured feed lists his current ranking at No. 163.

Current ranking: #148
Peak ranking: #72 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Daniel Altmaier

Germany

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 44 in January 2026. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; no reliable current injury or decline update surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #65
Peak ranking: #44 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 08:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Gojo has won three matches in three days to reach the second round, and his first-set record — 10 of 15 on hard courts against Altmaier's one in 11 — is the sharpest split between them.

Gojo winning is the likeliest outcome, and at 1.85 it does offer something, as do Gojo to take the first set at 1.80 and Gojo -1.5 games at 2.10.

Context

Gojo has been on court on three consecutive days in Lyon and plays a fourth match in five days, with a two-and-a-half-hour three-setter in qualifying as the heaviest of them, while Altmaier has played once. The load is real but not extreme: 21 October was a rest day and his wins over Sachko and Fery came in straight sets. What the run does establish is sharpness on these courts and a first tour-level win over a top-35 seed, a different starting position from an opponent who had not competed for 11 days before his opener.
- Gojo was the sixth seed in the Lyon qualifying draw and needed two hours 35 minutes to beat Maestrelli after losing the first set
- He beat Sachko 6-3 7-6(4) in one hour 32 minutes in the final qualifying round
- Fery, the eighth seed and world No. 34, lost to the qualifier 6-3 7-6(2) in the first round
- Gojo had 21 October free before this second-round match, his fourth in five days
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:08 · Europe/Bucharest
The win came from a position where Droguet held two break points for a 5-1 lead in the second set, so Altmaier's first round cost him close to three full sets of tennis. He has had a full day off since, which limits how much of that load carries into this match. The specific read is that both tie-breaks went his way 7-4 and 7-3, and that Droguet had not competed since 27 September, so part of the recovery reflects an opponent short of matches rather than a fully settled Altmaier.
- Altmaier won the last two sets in tie-breaks, 7-6(4) and 7-6(3), after losing the opener
- Droguet held two break points at 4-1 in the second set and did not convert either
- The match was Altmaier's first since Shanghai and his only outing of the week before this round
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Altmaier has spent most of this hard-court swing chasing the second set rather than protecting a lead.
Losing the opener in 10 of 11 matches means Altmaier regularly hands over the initiative before he settles. He recovered from 5-7 down against Droguet on 20 October by taking two tie-breaks, so the resilience is real, but a first-set deficit against a qualifier who has started well this week is exposure rather than a plan.
- Altmaier's 11 completed hard-court matches from 3 August to 20 October: one first set won, 10 lost.
- He averaged 4.0 games won and 5.8 lost in first sets across that sample.
- Second sets were closer: five won and six lost, at 4.7 games to 5.9.
Droguet is the only common opponent either player has faced in the past six weeks, so this is the closest thing to a cross-check available. Gojo lost to him twice in three sets on hard courts, the second time indoors in Rennes, and Altmaier needed two tie-breaks to beat the same player here. The comparison is suggestive rather than decisive, since Droguet arrived in Lyon without a match since 27 September and Gojo's defeats came at Challenger level, so it qualifies rather than settles how the two levels compare.
- Droguet beat Gojo on indoor hard in Rennes in mid-September and again in Saint-Tropez a week later
- Gojo's defeat in Rennes ended his run in the quarter-finals of that event
- Altmaier beat Droguet 5-7 7-6(4) 7-6(3) in Lyon
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:08 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Gojo's serve and recent hard-court form give him the clearer path to the win.
- Gojo is 9-6 on hard courts in the last 15 matches; Altmaier is 5-7 on the same surface.
- Gojo has won 51.5% of total points and 52.7% of games; Altmaier has won 47.6% of points and 43.9% of games on hard courts.
- Gojo beat No. 34 Arthur Fery in straight sets in the first round; Altmaier needed three sets against No. 69 Titouan Droguet.
- Gojo has played four matches in five days, while Altmaier had one match since Shanghai.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been longer, with tie-breaks featuring for both players.
- Gojo's second sets average 10.33 total games; Altmaier's average 10.64.
- Gojo's last six second sets produced four over 9.5 games.
- Altmaier's last six second sets produced three over 9.5 games.
- Both players have six hard-court matches with a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Gojo's recent game margins are mostly two or better, while Altmaier has often been outscored.
- Gojo's last six hard-court game margins: +4, +4, +2, -6, +2, +8.
- Five of those six margins were at least +2.
- Gojo has won 52.7% of hard-court games; Altmaier has won 43.9%.
- Altmaier's last six hard-court game margins: 0, -4, -2, -7, -5, -11.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostBorna Gojo -1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A one-break first set is the most common pattern for both players.
- Gojo's first sets average 9.47 total games; Altmaier's average 9.82.
- Gojo's last six first sets included four with nine or fewer games.
- Altmaier's last six first sets included three with nine or fewer games.
- Gojo has won 10 of 15 first sets, often by a single break.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Close sets and tie-break patterns point to a match that can pass the line.
- Gojo's hard-court matches average 23.27 total games; Altmaier's average 24.36.
- Altmaier's 11 hard-court matches include six with a tiebreak.
- Gojo's 15 hard-court matches include six with a tiebreak.
- Both players' first-round matches in Lyon were decided by at least one tiebreak.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Gojo has started much better than Altmaier across the hard-court sample.
- Gojo has won 10 of 15 first sets on hard courts; Altmaier has won 1 of 11.
- Gojo averages 5.2 first-set games won; Altmaier averages 4.0.
- Altmaier lost the first set in his Lyon first-round match.
- Gojo won the first set in two of his three Lyon wins.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's second-set record is stronger, and he has been closing sets well.
- Gojo has won 11 of 15 second sets on hard courts; Altmaier has won 5 of 11.
- Gojo averages 5.67 second-set games won; Altmaier averages 4.73.
- Gojo won the second set in his first-round win over Fery.
- Altmaier won both tie-break sets in his first-round win over Droguet.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have recent tie-break matches and close set patterns.
- Gojo has six hard-court matches with a tiebreak in 15.
- Altmaier has six hard-court matches with a tiebreak in 11.
- Gojo's first-round win over Fery included a 7-6 second set.
- Altmaier's first-round win over Droguet included two tie-break sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's serve volume and Altmaier's solid ace rate can push the total past the line.
- Gojo averages 10.3 aces per match on hard courts.
- Altmaier averages 7.9 aces per match on the same surface.
- Gojo's first-serve points won rate is 76.1%; Altmaier's is 70.9%.
- Both players have played recent three-set matches, which add service games.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 17.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Altmaier's lower first-serve rate and both players' recent match length can push the total over.
- Gojo averages 3.0 double faults per match on hard courts.
- Altmaier averages 3.7 double faults per match on the same surface.
- Gojo's first-serve in rate is 66.1%; Altmaier's is 61.3%.
- Both players have recent three-set matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance51%

Previous match context available

Borna Gojo

9W 6L

6-3 7-6(2)#34Arthur Fery 6-3 7-6(4)#175Vitaliy Sachko

4-6 6-3 7-6(6)#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-2 7-5#191Jack Pinnington Jones

7-6(4) 7-6(0)#246Philip Henning

6-2 6-2—Maxi Carrascosa Diaz

3-6 6-3 6-4#69Titouan Droguet

7-5 6-3#400Vadym Ursu

6-2 3-6 6-3#69Titouan Droguet

6-4 6-4#243Matteo Martineau

6-4 7-6(6)#367Daniel Masur

6-4 6-4#91Bu Yunchaokete

6-1 6-4#206Zdenek Kolar

3-6 6-3 6-1#213Harry Wendelken

6-4 2-6 7-6(3)#406Sebastian Gorzny

Daniel Altmaier

6W 9L

5-7 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#69Titouan Droguet

6-3 7-6(6)#4Ben Shelton

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#195Holger Rune

6-4 6-1#448Jie Cui

6-4 6-3#95Dino Prizmic

6-3 6-1 6-7(5) 6-2#77Zachary Svajda

7-6(5) 7-5#33Ignacio Buse

6-1 7-6(6)#130Francisco Comesana

6-4 6-2#26Lorenzo Musetti

3-6 6-3 6-4#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-2 6-1#17Brandon Nakashima

6-7(2) 7-6(5) 6-4#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 3-6 7-5#80Alex Molcan

6-3 6-2#55Raphael Collignon

6-4 6-4#23Luciano Darderi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BGBorna GojoGojo

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniel AltmaierAltmaierDA

Borna Gojo carries the stronger recent form — Daniel Altmaier's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1566.1%+3.7pp62.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1576.1%+5.6pp70.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1546.6%—46.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/1510.3+3.17.2

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.00.4 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1536.4%+2.2pp34.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1534.4%+5.0pp39.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1568.2%+4.7pp63.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.5%+3.4pp48.1%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

66.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.7pp62.4%

76.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.6pp70.5%

46.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—46.4%

10.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.17.2

3.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.4 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

36.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.2pp34.2%

Pressure · 1–1

34.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.0pp39.4%

68.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.7pp63.5%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.4pp48.1%

Borna Gojo #148Croatia0Daniel Altmaier #65Germany2

Player Profiles

Borna Gojo

Daniel Altmaier

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Borna Gojo

Borna Gojo

Borna Gojo -1.5

Over 2.5

Borna Gojo 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Borna Gojo

Daniel Altmaier

Stat Battle