Katerina Siniakova #87Czechia22 – 1Peyton Stearns #37United States1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05

The read

Stearns is higher ranked, has the better hard-court results and starts sets more reliably, while Siniakova arrives from a long doubles week.

• Stearns is ranked 37 to Siniakova's 87 and is 7-7 on hard in her last 14 completed matches.
• Stearns has won 53.3% of hard-court games (171-150); Siniakova is 60-71 in her six listed hard matches.
• Opening sets on hard: Stearns 8-6, Siniakova 3-4.
• Siniakova reached the Wuhan doubles final in the days before this match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Stearns has kept the game count close or better in most recent hard matches, and Siniakova's clear wins have been rare.

• Stearns' game margins in six listed hard matches: 0, -2, -6, +5, +3, +6.
• She avoided a two-game defeat in 4 of 6.
• Siniakova was two or more games ahead in 2 of her 6.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

On recent hard-court scoring Stearns is the player more likely to finish ahead on games, helped by her stronger set-one starts.

• Stearns' six listed hard matches: 73 games won, 67 lost (+6).
• Siniakova's six listed hard matches: 60 won, 71 lost (-11).
• Stearns finished at least one game ahead in 3 of those 6; Siniakova was one or more behind in 4 of 6.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent matches from both women have regularly passed this mark, especially when a deciding set is needed.

• Siniakova's hard matches average 22.6 total games; Stearns' 22.9.
• The last 12 listed matches across both players average 22.6 games.
• Both players' recent three-set matches reached at least 25 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players are strong in second sets, but Stearns' overall edge on hard courts gives her the slight nod.

• Stearns won 10 of 14 hard-court second sets; Siniakova 5 of 7.
• Second-set games: Stearns 5.5-3.8, Siniakova 5.6-4.0.
• Six of Stearns' 14 hard matches went to a deciding set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Stearns has finished most of her wins in straight sets, which keeps the match short more often than not.

• Stearns' hard matches average 2.43 sets; Siniakova's 2.57.
• Stearns won 2-0 in 6 of 14 hard matches and lost 0-2 twice.
• Siniakova has four three-set matches in seven.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Most matches in this sample were settled without a tiebreak, and Siniakova's rarely reach one.

• Six of the 21 hard matches in the sample had a tiebreak.
• Siniakova had one tiebreak match in seven; Stearns five in 14.
• Second sets averaged close to nine games, usually without a tiebreak.