Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birrell: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Stearns' H2H dominance and slightly superior serve/return metrics give her an edge, though Birrell's grass experience keeps it competitive.
- Stearns leads H2H 2-0, both wins in three sets on hard/clay, showing ability to edge tight matches.
- Stearns has a 58% career win rate vs Birrell's 54.7%, with a stronger return points won (46% vs 45%).
- Stearns' recent form includes wins over top-50 players (Sakkari, Kenin) and a straight-sets qualifying win yesterday.
- Birrell's grass record is 35-29 career, but she has lost 3 of her last 5 matches on grass.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPeyton StearnsEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
The H2H history and recent match lengths indicate a high probability of a competitive match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Both H2H matches went three sets with total games of 26 and 31.
- Stearns' last 5 matches averaged 20.6 games, with three exceeding 21.5.
- Birrell's last 5 matches averaged 24.2 games, with four exceeding 21.5.
- Grass matches often feature tight sets; both players have similar serve/return stats.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Birrell's competitiveness in recent matches and tight H2H history make her likely to stay within 3.5 games.
- Both H2H matches were decided by 4 games or fewer (26-20 and 31-27 total games).
- Birrell's last 5 losses were by margins of 1, 1, 5, 7, and 2 games, with only one exceeding 3.5.
- Stearns' last 5 wins were by margins of 5, 8, 6, 8, and 8 games, but against weaker opponents.
- Birrell has covered +3.5 in 4 of her last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKimberly Birrell +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set scores and balanced serve stats suggest a tight opening set likely to exceed 9.5 games.
- Stearns' last 5 first sets: 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 1-6 (avg 9.8 games).
- Birrell's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 4-6, 2-6, 6-2, 2-6 (avg 9.8 games).
- H2H first sets were 6-3 and 5-7, averaging 10.5 games.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 63%, limiting quick breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While second sets have been slightly shorter historically, recent form and break-point dynamics support a moderate chance of over 9.5 games.
- Stearns' last 5 second sets: 6-3, 3-6, 6-0, 6-3, 3-6 (avg 9.0 games).
- Birrell's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 7-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-1 (avg 10.2 games).
- H2H second sets were 3-6 and 6-3, averaging 9.0 games.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates near 45-49%, leading to potential breaks and extended sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The H2H history and Birrell's recent trend of three-set matches make a deciding set likely.
- Both H2H matches went to three sets.
- Stearns has a 48% deciding-set win rate, Birrell 52%, indicating neither dominates in deciders.
- Birrell's last 5 matches: 4 went to three sets.
- Stearns' last 5 matches: 2 went to three sets, but both H2H encounters were three-setters.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stearns' tendency to start fast and H2H pattern of winning first sets supports a slight edge in set 1.
- Stearns won the first set in both H2H meetings.
- Stearns' first-set win conversion rate is 86% career, indicating strong starts.
- Birrell's first-set win conversion is 85%, but she lost the first set in her last grass match (vs Spink).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPeyton StearnsEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Birrell's pattern of bouncing back in set 2 against Stearns and her comeback ability suggest she could take the second set.
- In both H2H matches, Birrell won the second set after losing the first.
- Birrell has a 22% career comeback rate, showing resilience after dropping the opener.
- Stearns' second-set performance dipped in recent losses (e.g., vs Bencic, Kasatkina).
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonKimberly BirrellEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates and H2H history shows low ace counts, making under 7.5 aces probable.
- Stearns' ace rate is 3%, Birrell's is 2.7%, both below average.
- In H2H, total aces were 7 and 7 across two matches, averaging 3.5 per match.
- Grass can increase aces, but neither player relies on aces; Stearns averages 2.2 aces per match, Birrell 1.7.
- Recent matches: Stearns had 1 ace vs Appleton, Birrell had 2 aces vs Spink.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High double-fault rates and H2H history of numerous double faults suggest a total exceeding 8.5.
- Stearns' double-fault rate is 5.3%, Birrell's is 6.1%, both above average.
- H2H matches had 16 and 18 double faults, averaging 17 per match.
- Stearns averages 3.5 double faults per match, Birrell 3.9.
- In their last grass matches, Stearns had 2 DFs, Birrell had 4 DFs.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Peyton Stearns #64United States0Kimberly Birrell #73Australia2

Player Profiles

Peyton Stearns

Kimberly Birrell

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Kimberly Birrell +3.5

Peyton Stearns

Over 2.5

Over 9.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Peyton Stearns

Kimberly Birrell