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Predictions graded

Matteo Martineau #272France2Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg #189France0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Fri 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSascha Gueymard Wayenburg · 83 places

Matteo Martineau

France

Martineau reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 170 on 1 July 2024. ITF lists clay and hard as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #272
Peak ranking: #170 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

France

Reached a career-high No. 193 on 17 November 2025. Profile listings identify hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #189
Peak ranking: #193 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 22:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Gueymard Wayenburg reaches this Roanne quarter-final on an 11-of-12 indoor hard run and has won both his matches here in straight sets, while Martineau has needed a comeback and three sets to get this far.

Gueymard Wayenburg is the likelier winner, and the one price that offers something is 2.15 for him to win 2-0. The 1.43 match price and 1.5 second-set price offer no clear advantage; 1.5 on the opening set is best left alone.

Context

The run is the clearest reason this quarterfinal is competitive despite Martineau holding the higher career ceiling. Gueymard Wayenburg has won 11 of 12 matches on the indoor hard swing, and Roanne is the third consecutive indoor event where he has reached at least the last eight. The counterweight is that the sequence includes a 6-2 6-0 loss to Clement Chidekh in the Mouilleron-le-Captif final and a 12-10 first-set tiebreak in the round of 16 here, so the margins inside it have been narrow.
- Beat Clement Tabur 7-6(10) 6-3 in the Roanne round of 16
- Beat Liam Broady 6-4 6-4 in the Roanne first round
- Had won 11 of his last 12 matches on indoor hard before the quarterfinal
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 22:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Martineau's path to the quarterfinal has been the harder of the two, and it required a response after he dropped the opening set to a qualifier who had just produced the best win of his career. Gueymard Wayenburg, by contrast, has won both Roanne matches in straight sets, so Martineau brings the longer recent time on court into the fixture. The workload difference is only one extra set, though, and his first-round win over Schoenhaus also needed a second-set tiebreak.
- Beat Etienne Donnet 5-7 6-4 6-2 in the Roanne second round
- Beat Max Schoenhaus 6-2 7-6(5) in the Roanne first round
- Donnet beat Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 7-6(5) 7-6(3) in the Roanne first round
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 22:33 · Europe/BucharestTennis.comwww.tennis.com · 15 Oct 2026
The first serve is the platform for Gueymard Wayenburg's 12-3 hard-court record.
In a 15-match window ending 14 October, Gueymard Wayenburg won 475 of 615 first-serve points (77.2%) and saved 55 of 80 break points (68.8%). That serve underpins a 12-3 hard-court record and makes him difficult to break once ahead. It matters because Martineau has converted 34 of 103 break points (33.0%) over his own last 15 matches, so clear chances may be scarce. Both windows are small samples.
- Across 15 matches to 14 October 2026: 475 of 615 first-serve points won (77.2%), 55 of 80 break points saved (68.8%)
- Same window: 134 aces at 8.9 per match and a 12-3 hard-court record
The career-high and the final establish that this is the best stretch of Gueymard Wayenburg's career at the moment the quarterfinal is played. It explains why a player outside the top 200 for most of 2025 now sits inside it and is the higher-ranked man in this fixture. The final itself was a one-sided 6-2 6-0 defeat, so the result marks a step up in level rather than proof he has closed the gap at the top of Challenger tennis.
- Reached the Mouilleron-le-Captif Challenger final, losing 6-2 6-0 to Clement Chidekh
- Reached a career-high ATP ranking of No. 189
- Was ranked No. 218 before that event
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 22:33 · Europe/BucharestSascha Gueymard Wayenburgen.wikipedia.org · 5 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg is higher ranked, in far stronger recent form and holds a clear serving and returning advantage on this surface.
- Ranked No. 189 vs No. 272
- 12-3 on hard in the last 15; Martineau 7-7 on the surface
- First-serve points won 77.2% vs 72.8%; second serve 52.8% vs 49.9%
- Break points converted 51.9% vs 32.4%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance71%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players hold serve well enough for opening sets to run past nine games reasonably often.
- Martineau set 1 average games 10.2
- Gueymard Wayenburg set 1 average games 9.3
- Three tiebreaks in Martineau's 14 set 1 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martineau's second sets frequently stretch beyond nine games, adding length to the match.
- Martineau set 2 average games 10.6
- Gueymard Wayenburg set 2 average games 9.2
- Four tiebreaks in Martineau's 14 set 2 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If the favourite wins in straight sets the total should stay under the line.
- Gueymard Wayenburg average 21.8 total games
- Martineau average 26.1 total games
- Straight-set matches likely favour the low side
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg has won in straight sets in two thirds of his recent hard-court matches.
- Gueymard Wayenburg straight-set in 10 of 15
- Martineau two-set in 6 of 14
- Gueymard Wayenburg average 2.33 sets per match
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg has been dominant in second sets, winning four of every five on this surface.
- Set 2 record 12-3 on hard
- Martineau set 2 record 9-5
- Set 2 average games 9.2 vs 10.6
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg has started sets strongly, winning the opening set in most of his recent hard-court matches.
- Set 1 record 11-4 on hard this window
- Martineau set 1 record 7-7
- Set 1 average games 9.3 vs 10.2
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg has routinely won in straight sets and the ranking and form gap supports that scoreline.
- Nine of Gueymard Wayenburg's 12 hard-court wins were 2-0
- Gueymard Wayenburg 12-3 on the surface
- Martineau 7-7 on the surface
BetBugs · Set BettinglostSascha Gueymard Wayenburg 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in Gueymard Wayenburg's matches and serve breaks have decided most sets.
- Martineau had a tiebreak in 6 of 14 matches
- Gueymard Wayenburg had a tiebreak in 3 of 15 matches
- Gueymard Wayenburg set 1 has only two tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg's low double-fault rate offsets Martineau's higher count, keeping the total near the line.
- Martineau 3.9 double faults per match
- Gueymard Wayenburg 2.6 double faults per match
- Gueymard Wayenburg first-serve in 60.6%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Matteo Martineau

7W 8L

5-7 6-4 6-2#817Etienne Donnet 6-2 7-6(5)#293Max Schoenhaus

7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3#160Clement Tabur

6-3 5-7 6-3#380Daniel Masur

7-6(4) 6-7(6) 7-6(6)#155Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 6-1#416Justin Boulais

6-1 6-4#472Cesar Bouchelaghem

6-4 6-4#150Borna Gojo

7-6(2) 6-4#293Max Schoenhaus

6-2 3-6 7-6(4)#847Gijs Brouwer

4-6 6-3 6-2#463Emile Hudd

6-3 4-6 6-1—Billy Blaydes

7-5 7-6(1)#394Lui Maxted

6-4 7-5#899Max Dahlin

6-4 3-6 6-1#207Luka Pavlovic

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

12W 3L

7-6(10) 6-3#160Clement Tabur 6-4 6-4#213Liam Broady

6-2 6-0#146Clement Chidekh

6-4 6-2#176Joel Schwaerzler

2-6 6-3 6-4#160Clement Tabur

6-1 6-4#168Gauthier Onclin

6-4 7-5#296Pierre-Hugues Herbert

4-6 6-3 7-5#186Harold Mayot

4-6 7-6(8) 6-3#72Titouan Droguet

6-0 6-3#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-4 6-4#305Ugo Blanchet

6-4 6-3#640Maxime Janvier

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#149Mark Lajal

6-0 6-1#789Mae Malige

3-6 6-2 6-2#282Michele Ribecai

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MMMatteo MartineauMartineau

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Sascha Gueymard WayenburgWayenburgSW

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg carries the stronger recent form — Matteo Martineau's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In66.6%+6.0pp60.6%

1st Serve Won72.9%+4.3pp77.2%

2nd Serve Won48.8%+4.0pp52.8%

Aces / Match8.1+0.88.9

Double Faults / Match3.91.3 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.8%+2.9pp37.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted33.0%+18.9pp51.9%

Break Pts Saved62.5%+6.3pp68.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.0%+2.9pp52.9%

Serve · 1–4

66.6%1st Serve In+6.0pp60.6%

72.9%1st Serve Won+4.3pp77.2%

48.8%2nd Serve Won+4.0pp52.8%

8.1Aces / Match+0.88.9

3.9Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

34.8%Return Pts Won+2.9pp37.7%

Pressure · 0–2

33.0%Break Pts Converted+18.9pp51.9%

62.5%Break Pts Saved+6.3pp68.8%

Points · 0–1

50.0%Total Pts Won+2.9pp52.9%

Matteo Martineau

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg 2-0

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Matteo Martineau

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Stat Battle