SpainWTA MallorcaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo #207Spain1Rebeka Masarova #171Switzerland2

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 3-6Thu 15 Oct 2026, 14:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions6–650%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRebeka Masarova · 36 places

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

Spain

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 241 in April 2026. She is a right-hander.

Current ranking: #207
Peak ranking: #241 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Rebeka Masarova

Switzerland

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 62 in September 2023. Current ranking supplied for this match is No. 169.

Current ranking: #171
Peak ranking: #62 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 186 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 02:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Mintegi Del Olmo brings an 11-match winning run into the Mallorca second round against a higher-ranked opponent who just beat the third seed in straight sets.

She looks the more likely winner on clay, but 1.50 to win the match and 1.55 on the first or second set ask for more than her form supports. No quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Mintegi has won 11 straight matches across three clay tournaments, all on the surface used here, and she carried that form into Mallorca by beating Sobolieva, the same player she beat in the Burgas final two days earlier. That gives her the most current winning form in the matchup. The counterpoint is workload: five matches in Burgas plus the Mallorca opener inside eight days leaves little recovery time, which matters if this match goes long.
- Has won 11 consecutive matches across Plovdiv, Burgas and Mallorca
- Won the W50 Plovdiv final 2-6 6-1 6-3 against Elizara Yaneva
- Won the W50 Burgas final 5-7 6-4 6-0 against Anastasiia Sobolieva on 11 October
- Beat Sobolieva 6-2 6-2 in the Mallorca opening round
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 02:37 · Europe/Bucharest
Masarova, the former world No. 62 now ranked No. 171, beat the draw's third seed in straight sets in her opening match, running against a season in which she had won six of 15 matches. Noha Akugue, ranked No. 126, was a higher-ranked opponent, and Masarova beat her on clay without losing a set. That single result still sits against an uneven record: her previous completed match was a straight-set loss to Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales in Tolentino on 25 September.
- Beat third seed Noma Noha Akugue 6-4 6-3 in the Mallorca opening round
- Noha Akugue entered as the draw's third seed and was ranked No. 126
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 02:37 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 13 Oct 2026
Mintegi is a right-hander ranked No. 207 whose 15-match clay sample runs from 8 September to 13 October.
Her 7-8 first-set record and 12-3 second-set record come from the same 15 clay matches, so the opening set has been the weaker part of her game and the middle set the stronger. Masarova has lost six of nine first sets herself, which leaves the opening exchanges open even though Mintegi is the stronger player overall. Seven of Mintegi's 13 clay wins went to a deciding set, so a slow start would not settle the match.
- Set-1 record 7-8 across 15 clay matches from 8 September to 13 October
- Set-2 record 12-3 across the same 15 clay matches
- Scorelines: six 2-0 wins, seven 2-1 wins and two 0-2 losses
Masarova is a right-hander ranked No. 171 whose nine-match clay sample covers 6 July to 13 October.
Her six first-set losses mean she has often started from behind on clay, and an 11.0-game average in that set with two tiebreaks points to long, close openers. Mintegi has won only seven of 15 first sets, so neither player has dominated the opening set, though Mintegi's second-set record is far stronger. Masarova's 5-4 clay record shows she can recover, having taken five of nine second sets.
- Set-1 record 3-6 across nine clay matches from 6 July to 13 October
- First-set total games average 11.0 with two tiebreaks
- Second-set record 5-4 on clay
- The nine-match sample excludes one retirement

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

−2.5ppshort

Mintegi has been markedly stronger in second sets, winning twelve of fifteen on clay.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Mintegi arrives on an 11-match win streak and has taken 13 of 15 on clay, while Masarova has won 6 of 14 overall.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

−9.5ppshort

Mintegi has the better overall level despite an even first-set record, while Masarova has lost six of nine opening sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Mintegi arrives on an 11-match win streak and has taken 13 of 15 on clay, while Masarova has won 6 of 14 overall.
- 13-2 in her last 15 clay matches, including an 11-match winning run
- Clay totals: 53.4% points won, 59.1% games won, 70.3% sets won
- Masarova is ranked No. 171, just above Mintegi's No. 207
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAne Mintegi Del OlmoEstimated chance60%

Games4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Masarova has rarely been beaten heavily, so a five-and-a-half game cushion covers most of her recent defeats.
- Masarova's recent clay margins: +5, -5, +8, +5, -9, +3
- Only one of her last six matches was lost by more than five games
- Mintegi's recent winning margins reached +8 and +10
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRebeka Masarova +5.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mintegi has won her recent clay matches by comfortable game margins, mostly clearing one and a half games.
- Recent clay margins: +8, +6, +3, +5, +5, +10
- All six wins produced a positive game margin
- Mintegi's match-winner share is around 60%
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAne Mintegi Del Olmo -1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Masarova has mostly kept recent matches within three games and just beat the third seed comfortably.
- Masarova's recent clay margins: +5, -5, +8, +5, -9, +3
- Beat third seed Noha Akugue 6-4 6-3
- Mintegi's recent margins were +8, +6, +3, +5, +5, +10
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRebeka Masarova +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Masarova's opening sets have been long, with two tiebreaks in nine clay matches.
- Mintegi set-1 total games average 8.9
- Masarova set-1 total games average 11.0
- Masarova has two first-set tiebreaks in nine clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average near nine games, slightly favouring the under.
- Mintegi set-2 total games average 8.8
- Masarova set-2 total games average 9.2
- Mintegi wins 5.47 games per second set
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Masarova's matches have run long and Mintegi's average sits just under the line.
- Mintegi averages 21.5 total games per clay match
- Masarova averages 24.4 total games per clay match
- Masarova had tiebreaks in 3 of 9 clay matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Mintegi has been markedly stronger in second sets, winning twelve of fifteen on clay.
- Set-2 record 12-3 on clay
- Set-2 games: 5.47 won against 3.33 lost per match
- Masarova has won 5 of 9 second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAne Mintegi Del OlmoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Mintegi has the better overall level despite an even first-set record, while Masarova has lost six of nine opening sets.
- Set-1 record 7-8 across 15 clay matches
- Masarova's set-1 record is 3-6 on clay
- Mintegi averages 4.4 games won in the first set
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAne Mintegi Del OlmoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have gone to a deciding set in roughly half of their recent clay matches, and Mintegi often starts slowly.
- 7 of Mintegi's 15 clay matches went to three sets
- 4 of Masarova's 9 clay matches went to three sets
- Mintegi lost the first set in 8 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of both players' recent clay matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Mintegi had tiebreaks in only 2 of 15 clay matches
- Masarova's matches had tiebreaks in 3 of 9
- Mintegi wins 67.4% of first-serve points in
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance68%

Previous match context available

Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

13W 2L

6-2 6-2#167Anastasiia Sobolieva

5-7 6-4 6-0#167Anastasiia Sobolieva

0-6 6-3 6-0#195Rositsa Dencheva

3-6 6-2 6-2#155Jazmin Ortenzi

7-5 4-6 6-1#434Jana Kovackova

6-0 6-2#746Bianca Elena Barbulescu

2-6 6-1 6-3#146Elizara Yaneva

2-6 6-4 6-4#378Loes Ebeling Koning

1-6 6-1 7-5#565Ilinca Dalina Amariei

7-5 6-3#439Beatrise Zeltina

6-1 6-0#523Tara Wuerth

7-6(2) 6-3#143Andrea Lazaro Garcia

6-1 6-4#505Ariana Geerlings

6-3 6-2#222Alicia Herrero Linana

6-3 7-6(10)#186Elena Pridankina

Rebeka Masarova

6W 9L

6-4 6-3#126Noma Akugue Noha

6-4 6-3#148Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

5-7 6-2 6-0#472Isabella Maria Serban

5-7 6-1 7-5#293Lisa Zaar

6-1 6-2#222Alicia Herrero Linana

7-5 7-6(4)#277Mina Hodzic

7-6(4) 3-6 6-2#110Simona Waltert

6-4 3-6 6-4#213Iryna Shymanovich

4-6 4-3 ret.#251Valentina Ryser

4-6 6-2 7-6(10)#210Carole Monnet

6-4 6-4#233Francesca Curmi

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5#97Julia Grabher

7-6(2) 6-4#179Jil Teichmann

6-2 6-4#87Katerina Siniakova

6-1 6-4#202Mia Pohankova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AOAne Mintegi Del OlmoOlmo

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Rebeka MasarovaMasarovaRM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In67.4%+7.0pp60.4%

1st Serve Won61.8%+7.0pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won41.2%+4.7pp45.9%

Aces / Match0.5+4.44.9

Double Faults / Match5.3—5.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won51.8%+11.8pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.8%+13.6pp37.2%

Break Pts Saved53.2%+1.5pp54.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.4%+3.6pp49.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

67.4%1st Serve In+7.0pp60.4%

61.8%1st Serve Won+7.0pp68.8%

41.2%2nd Serve Won+4.7pp45.9%

0.5Aces / Match+4.44.9

5.3Double Faults / Match—5.5

Return · 1–0

51.8%Return Pts Won+11.8pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

50.8%Break Pts Converted+13.6pp37.2%

53.2%Break Pts Saved+1.5pp54.7%

Points · 1–0

53.4%Total Pts Won+3.6pp49.8%