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Predictions graded

Rebeka Masarova #167Switzerland2Noma Akugue Noha #130Germany0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Tue 13 Oct 2026, 13:14 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–640%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNoma Akugue Noha · 37 places

Rebeka Masarova

Switzerland

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 62 in September 2023. Current ranking supplied for this match is No. 169.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #62 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 186 cm

Noma Akugue Noha

Germany

Twenty-two-year-old left-hander from Reinbek, Germany. Her Roland-Garros profile lists a best singles ranking of No. 137; the supplied current ranking is No. 142.

Current ranking: #130
Peak ranking: #137
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 00:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Third seed Noma Akugue Noha opens her Mallorca campaign against Rebeka Masarova, who has won both previous meetings, including on grass in Berlin in June 2026, while Noha Akugue's clay form and higher ranking point the other way.

Noha Akugue to win looks the likelier first-round outcome, and the 2.25 match price and 2.2 on her taking the opening set are the picks that offer something; Over 2.5 sets at 2.3 is thinner. Masarova at 1.65 does not.

Context

The most recent direct evidence between the two is Masarova's three-set win in Berlin in June 2026, where she lost the opening set 4-6 and then conceded only three games across the next two sets. That result came on grass in a different event and conditions, so it is a limited guide to this fixture. Masarova also carries the ranking disadvantage, No. 167 to No. 130, leaving the matchup record as her strongest current signal.
- Masarova has won both professional meetings between the two.
- The most recent meeting was in Berlin in June 2026, where Masarova won 4-6 6-1 6-2 on grass.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:29 · Europe/BucharestTennisratio head-to-head comparisonwww.tennisratio.com · 11 Oct 2026
Noha Akugue's Montreux run in September 2026, where she was seeded No. 3 and won four matches before the final, is her strongest result at 125 level and came alongside a career-high ranking. It is the clearest current form marker in a fixture where she is the higher-ranked player but trails the head-to-head 0-2. The upturn is recent rather than settled: her most recent match before this event was a straight-sets defeat, and Masarova has already beaten her twice.
- Noha Akugue was the No. 3 seed and runner-up at the WTA 125 event in Montreux in September 2026, losing the final 6-1 6-2 to Fiona Ferro.
- She won four matches in Montreux before the final.
- She reached the Hamburg final at 19 in 2023 before falling outside the top 300, and returned to a career-high ranking in 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 00:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Rebeka Masarova's clay matches have started slowly, with six first-set defeats in eight.
The opening set has been the weakest phase of Masarova's clay season, giving Noha Akugue a clear route into the match. Masarova has still fought back: three of her four clay wins in the same eight-match sample needed a deciding set, so an early lead has not always closed the match out. The figures cover eight completed clay matches from 6 July to 25 September 2026, with one retirement excluded.
- In eight clay matches from 6 July to 25 September 2026, Masarova won two first sets and lost six, averaging 4.875 games won against 6.25 lost.
- Her clay scorelines were 0-2 three times, 2-1 three times, 2-0 once and 1-2 once, and one retirement is excluded from the sample.
Noma Akugue Noha has been closing out her clay wins quickly, three of four in straight sets.
The player favoured here has been finishing her clay wins in two sets, which is the main counterweight to a long three-set match. Her five-match sample is small and sits inside one week in September 2026. Masarova's eight clay matches average 2.5 sets and 25.1 games, and four of them went the distance, so the length of this match is genuinely open.
- Noha Akugue's five clay matches from 7 to 13 September 2026 produced a 4-1 record: three 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win and one 0-2 loss.
- That five-match sample averaged 2.2 sets and 21.6 total games per match, with two of the matches featuring a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
The higher-ranked, seeded player has the better clay record and stronger serve and return numbers in this sample.
- Noha Akugue is 4-1 in five clay matches in this sample, winning 54.6% of games and 51.7% of points
- She is ranked No. 130 and seeded No. 3 in Mallorca, against Masarova's No. 167
- Masarova is 4-4 on clay in this sample and has lost the first set in six of eight matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNoma Akugue NohaEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Noha Akugue wins more games than she loses on clay, and the line needs a clear Masarova win to fail.
- Noha Akugue's clay games read 59 won and 49 lost, a +2.0 margin per match
- Masarova's six listed clay matches ended with game margins of +8, +5, +3, -2, -5 and -9
- This line is only beaten if Masarova wins by three or more games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostNoma Akugue Noha +2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets on clay have routinely passed nine games for both players in this sample.
- Masarova's clay first sets average 11.1 total games; Noha Akugue's average 10.2
- Masarova's first sets have reached a tiebreak twice in eight; Noha Akugue's once in five
- Both players' first-set averages sit above the line
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set scoring on clay has been marginally below nine and a half games for both players.
- Masarova's clay second sets average 9.25 games over eight matches
- Noha Akugue's clay second sets average 9.4 games over five matches
- Both second-set averages are under the line
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blending the two clay samples puts this match close to the line, with a slight lean to the longer side.
- Masarova's eight clay matches average 25.1 total games; Noha Akugue's five average 21.6
- Masarova's clay matches average 2.5 sets, Noha Akugue's 2.2
- The 23.5 line sits between the two players' clay averages
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Masarova's slow starts on clay are the clearest single pattern in the available evidence.
- Masarova has lost the first set in six of eight clay matches, averaging 4.9 games to 6.25
- Noha Akugue has won the first set in three of five clay matches, averaging 5.2 games to 5.0
- Masarova has started poorly on this surface across the sample
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNoma Akugue NohaEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Noha Akugue's second sets on clay have been the most reliable part of her surface record.
- Noha Akugue is 4-1 in second sets on clay, averaging 5.4 games to 4.0
- Masarova is 4-4 in second sets on clay, averaging 4.75 games to 4.5
- Second sets have been Noha Akugue's strongest phase on the surface
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostNoma Akugue NohaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The likely winner has a clear habit of finishing clay matches in two sets.
- Three of Noha Akugue's four clay wins came in straight sets
- Her clay matches average 2.2 sets over five matches
- Four of Masarova's eight clay matches went to a deciding set
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' clay matches have been settled without a tiebreak.
- Eight of the thirteen combined clay matches had no tiebreak
- Masarova's clay matches average 2.5 sets but only three of eight reached a tiebreak
- Noha Akugue's serving numbers are modest, with 4.0 double faults per clay match
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Noma Akugue Noha: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Noma Akugue Noha matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Noma Akugue Noha4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

13 Jul·WTA Rome

#253Alice Rame0-2#149Noma Akugue Noha

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·65%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#253Alice Rame0-2#149Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha to win

65%probability

Noma Akugue Noha won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#245Katherine Sebov2-1#152Noma Akugue Noha

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·62%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#245Katherine Sebov2-1#152Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha to win

62%probability

Katherine Sebov won

Missed

8 Jun·WTA Modena

#162Noma Akugue Noha2-0#153Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·62%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

WTA Modena

#162Noma Akugue Noha2-0#153Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah

Noma Akugue Noha to win

62%probability

Noma Akugue Noha won

Matched

4 Jun·WTA Makarska

#252Kajsa Rinaldo Persson0-2#162Noma Akugue Noha

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·62%

Matched

4 Jun 2026

WTA Makarska

#252Kajsa Rinaldo Persson0-2#162Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha to win

62%probability

Noma Akugue Noha won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-0Rebeka Masarova#167vNoma Akugue Noha#130Oct 16, 2023

1 total meetings

Rebeka Masarova

6W 9L

6-4 6-3#145Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

5-7 6-2 6-0#465Isabella Maria Serban

5-7 6-1 7-5#298Lisa Zaar

6-1 6-2#224Alicia Herrero Linana

7-5 7-6(4)#285Mina Hodzic

7-6(4) 3-6 6-2#98Simona Waltert

6-4 3-6 6-4#191Iryna Shymanovich

4-6 4-3 ret.#262Valentina Ryser

4-6 6-2 7-6(10)#202Carole Monnet

6-4 6-4#236Francesca Curmi

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5#99Julia Grabher

7-6(2) 6-4#184Jil Teichmann

6-2 6-4#55Katerina Siniakova

6-1 6-4#193Mia Pohankova

4-6 6-1 6-2#130Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha

9W 6L

6-2 6-3#125Lucrezia Stefanini

6-3 6-2#278Elena Micic

7-5 6-3#278Elena Micic

6-1 6-4#757Ilay Yoruk

6-3 6-1#234Fiona Crawley

4-6 6-3 6-0#313Malaika Rapolu

6-3 6-0#279Ayana Akli

6-1 6-2#108Fiona Ferro

7-6(2) 6-3#145Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-1 7-6(7)#180Anastasiia Sobolieva

7-5 6-3#330Alina Granwehr

5-7 6-2 6-4#443Denisa Zoldakova

1-6 6-4 7-5#170Anna Siskova

3-6 7-6(6) 7-5#300Weronika Falkowska

6-2 6-3#195Julia Avdeeva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RMRebeka MasarovaMasarova

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Noma Akugue NohaNohaNN

Noma Akugue Noha carries the stronger recent form — Rebeka Masarova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.4%—60.3%

1st Serve Won69.2%+6.7pp62.5%

2nd Serve Won45.0%+3.8pp48.8%

Aces / Match5.0+2.82.2

Double Faults / Match5.82.5 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.1%+5.1pp45.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.5%+6.1pp44.6%

Break Pts Saved54.6%+5.6pp60.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+1.5pp51.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.4%1st Serve In—60.3%

69.2%1st Serve Won+6.7pp62.5%

45.0%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp48.8%

5.0Aces / Match+2.82.2

5.8Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

40.1%Return Pts Won+5.1pp45.2%

Pressure · 0–2

38.5%Break Pts Converted+6.1pp44.6%

54.6%Break Pts Saved+5.6pp60.2%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+1.5pp51.4%