FranceRoanne - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Mika Brunold #261Switzerland2Benjamin Bonzi #92France1

Sets 6-2 · 2-6 · 6-4Wed 14 Oct 2026, 16:41 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBenjamin Bonzi · 169 places

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #261
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Benjamin Bonzi

France

French player who reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 42 in February 2023. Official profile lists him at 183 cm and right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #92
Peak ranking: #42 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 03:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Bonzi, the No. 92 and second seed, meets Brunold, No. 261, indoors in Roanne, where a hard-court player with a full recent sample faces a clay-built 12-2 run.

Bonzi is the likelier winner, with his second sets the strongest part of that case, but neither reviewed price — 1.3 for him to win the match, 1.4 for him to win the second set — offers anything worth backing.

Context

Roanne is played on indoor hard, while Brunold's recent results have come almost entirely on clay; his only recent indoor-hard sample is his first-round win here. Bonzi's corresponding block is nearly all hard court, including wins over top-40 opposition in September, so the surface change works against the lower-ranked player's form run. It is a qualifying condition rather than a decisive one, since Brunold has still been winning matches comfortably and must be beaten on the day.
- Roanne is an ATP 100 Challenger on indoor hard, running 12-18 October 2026.
- Brunold's tracked 15-match block contains 14 clay matches and one indoor hard match.
- Bonzi's tracked 15-match block contains 14 hard-court matches and one indoor hard match.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Bonzi's hard-court record is built on a strong second set rather than quick starts.
Bonzi's opening sets on hard have been level, with four of the 12 going to tiebreaks and an average of just 4.92 games won against 5.17 lost. The second set is a different picture: he has won nine of 12 and dropped only 4.25 games on average. That points to a player who may be tested early before taking charge, though the sample is 12 matches and does not guarantee the pattern repeats.
- 12 hard-court best-of-three matches tracked from 1 August to 12 October 2026
- First sets: 6 wins, 6 losses, 4.92 games won and 5.17 lost on average, four tiebreaks
- Second sets: 9 wins, 3 losses, 5.92 games won and 4.25 lost on average
Bonzi dropped the opening tiebreak before taking the next two sets, so he arrives at the Brunold fixture after a longer outing than his opponent, who won in straight sets the same day. At No. 92 he is the highest-ranked player in this section and the second seed at a Challenger 100 tournament. Grenier sits around No. 269, so the win is a routine one and does not by itself demonstrate form against a top-100 opponent.
- Bonzi won 6-7(5) 6-1 6-3 against Hugo Grenier in the Roanne first round .
- Bonzi is the No. 2 seed at the ATP 100 event in Roanne.
- The result sets up a second-round match against Mika Brunold.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Brunold won in straight sets after a first-set tiebreak and now steps up to the second seed in the round of 16. The result continues a strong six-week block for a player outside the top 250, with 13 wins against two defeats in his tracked recent matches, almost all of them on clay. That run has been built at a lower level than this fixture, so it qualifies his form without removing the ranking gap to Bonzi.
- Brunold won 7-6(2) 6-3 against Mathys Domenc at Roanne .
- Brunold is ranked No. 261 and Domenc is ranked outside the top 1,000.
- Brunold's tracked 15-match block shows 13 wins and two defeats.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Benjamin Bonzi

1.30fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 76.9%

−9.9ppshort

Bonzi is the higher-ranked, more surface-suited player with a full recent hard-court sample, while Brunold is stepping up from a clay-heavy run into an indoor hard event.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Benjamin Bonzi

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

−11.4ppshort

Bonzi's second sets on hard are his strongest phase, winning three times as many as he has lost.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Bonzi is the higher-ranked, more surface-suited player with a full recent hard-court sample, while Brunold is stepping up from a clay-heavy run into an indoor hard event.
- Bonzi is ranked No. 92 vs Brunold at No. 261
- Bonzi is 9-6 with 50.6% total points won across 15 recent hard matches
- Brunold's tracked 14-match block is almost entirely clay, with one indoor hard match
- Bonzi averaged 5.9 aces and 73.9% first-serve points won on hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBenjamin BonziEstimated chance67%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in this sample have regularly reached double figures, helped by a healthy tiebreak rate.
- Bonzi's hard set-one average is 10.08 games
- Four of his 12 hard matches had a first-set tiebreak
- Brunold's opening set at Roanne went 7-6
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bonzi's hard-court matches have tended to run slightly above the line, with tiebreaks frequent enough to add games.
- Bonzi's hard best-of-three matches average 24.08 total games
- Brunold's lone tracked hard match totalled 22 games
- Brunold won a set 7-6 in that match
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have averaged just above the line, though Bonzi tends to close them out more decisively.
- Bonzi's hard set-two average is 10.17 games
- He is 9-3 in hard second sets
- Three of his 12 hard matches had a second-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Bonzi's second sets on hard are his strongest phase, winning three times as many as he has lost.
- Bonzi is 9-3 in second sets across 12 hard best-of-three matches
- His set2 average is 5.92 games won and 4.25 lost
- Brunold won his one tracked hard second set 6-3
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBenjamin BonziEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bonzi is favoured overall but his opening sets on hard have been roughly even, so the first set is much closer than the ranking gap.
- Bonzi's hard-court first sets are 6 wins and 6 losses
- His set1 average is 4.92 games won and 5.17 lost
- Brunold won his only tracked hard first set 7-6
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBenjamin BonziEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the most common outcome in Bonzi's format-matched hard-court record.
- Seven of Bonzi's 12 hard best-of-three matches were 2-0 either way
- Bonzi's straight-set wins on hard total five
- Brunold won his opener in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been common in Bonzi's format-matched hard matches and in Brunold's only match here.
- Seven of Bonzi's 12 hard matches featured a tiebreak
- Four of those came in the first set
- Brunold's R1 match included a 7-6 set
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Benjamin Bonzi: 5/9 recent winner projections matched

5 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Benjamin Bonzi matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Benjamin Bonzi9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#101Benjamin Bonzi2-0#143Hugo Dellien

BetBugsBenjamin Bonzi to win·62%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#101Benjamin Bonzi2-0#143Hugo Dellien

Benjamin Bonzi to win

62%probability

Benjamin Bonzi won

Matched

31 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#101Benjamin Bonzi1-2#376Jay Dylan Hara Friend

BetBugsBenjamin Bonzi to win·65%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#101Benjamin Bonzi1-2#376Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Benjamin Bonzi to win

65%probability

Jay Dylan Hara Friend won

Missed

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#103Benjamin Bonzi2-1#347Blaise Bicknell

BetBugsBenjamin Bonzi to win·72%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#103Benjamin Bonzi2-1#347Blaise Bicknell

Benjamin Bonzi to win

72%probability

Benjamin Bonzi won

Matched

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#93Benjamin Bonzi2-3#91Gabriel Diallo

BetBugsBenjamin Bonzi to win·55%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#93Benjamin Bonzi2-3#91Gabriel Diallo

Benjamin Bonzi to win

55%probability

Gabriel Diallo won

Missed

18 Jun·Nottingham - Great Britain

#154Christopher O'Connell2-0#89Benjamin Bonzi

BetBugsBenjamin Bonzi to win·62%

Missed

18 Jun 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#154Christopher O'Connell2-0#89Benjamin Bonzi

Benjamin Bonzi to win

62%probability

Christopher O'Connell won

Missed

Previous match context available

Mika Brunold

13W 2L

7-6(2) 6-3—Mathys Domenc

6-0 3-6 6-4#318Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-2 6-2#336Francesco Forti

6-3 1-6 7-5#390Massimo Giunta

6-4 6-3#230Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-0 6-2#172Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-1#116Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#471Filip Misolic

6-3 4-0 ret.#349Miguel Damas

7-5 6-4#418Matthew William Donald

7-6(4) 6-3#613Kai Wehnelt

7-6(3) 6-4#316Sandro Kopp

6-3 6-4#301Raphael Perot

6-2 7-6(3)#826Liam Gavrielides

6-3 6-4#656Ergi Kirkin

Benjamin Bonzi

9W 6L

6-7(5) 6-1 6-3#269Hugo Grenier

6-3 6-4#236August Holmgren

6-3 6-2 6-4#27Karen Khachanov

6-2 7-6(4) 6-0#36Ignacio Buse

6-4 3-6 6-3 6-2#84Alex Molcan

6-2 4-6 6-1#36Ignacio Buse

7-6(5) 6-4#41Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-1 6-1#85Rinky Hijikata

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3#48Quentin Halys

6-4 7-6(7)#70Kamil Majchrzak

7-6(2) 7-5#45Luca Van Assche

7-6(4) 6-3#416Justin Boulais

2-6 7-6(2) 7-6(7)#148Dusan Lajovic

6-1 4-6 6-2#57Yannick Hanfmann

7-5 6-2#128Hugo Dellien

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMika BrunoldBrunold

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Benjamin BonziBonziBB

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Benjamin Bonzi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.7%+7.6pp59.1%

1st Serve Won71.4%+2.5pp73.9%

2nd Serve Won55.0%+5.9pp49.1%

Aces / Match2.5+3.45.9

Double Faults / Match2.12.2 fewer4.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.6%+5.7pp37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted47.3%+8.0pp39.3%

Break Pts Saved64.6%+7.0pp57.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.6%+4.0pp50.6%

Serve · 3–2

66.7%1st Serve In+7.6pp59.1%

71.4%1st Serve Won+2.5pp73.9%

55.0%2nd Serve Won+5.9pp49.1%

2.5Aces / Match+3.45.9

2.1Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer4.3

Return · 1–0

43.6%Return Pts Won+5.7pp37.9%

Pressure · 2–0

47.3%Break Pts Converted+8.0pp39.3%

64.6%Break Pts Saved+7.0pp57.6%

Points · 1–0

54.6%Total Pts Won+4.0pp50.6%