Benjamin Bonzi #101France11 – 2Jay Dylan Hara Friend #376Japan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Competitive service games and Friend's ability to force tiebreaks or extended sets push total games over 21.5.

• Bonzi last15 hard matches averaged 25 games (28 and 22); Friend last15 hard matches averaged 22.8 games.
• Both players have strong hold rates: Bonzi 81.6% first-serve points won on hard, Friend 70.6% overall.
• Friend's 69.3% break-point saved suggests tight games; Bonzi's 62.5% on hard is moderate.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Friend's competitive form and Bonzi's occasional lapses make a +3.5 game handicap cover probable.

• Friend last15 hard: 11-4 record, 55.3% games won; Bonzi last15 hard: 2-0, 56% games won.
• Friend's average games lost per match 13.1, Bonzi's 11.0, suggesting a close total.
• Friend's fatigue may cause a straight-set loss but likely within 3 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Strong serving and high first-set win rates point to a competitive opening set likely exceeding 9.5 games.

• Bonzi last15 hard: set scores 7-5, 6-4; Friend last15 hard: 6-4, 7-5, 7-6 common.
• Friend's first-set win rate 94% career, but Bonzi's 87% suggests a tight opener.
• Both players' serve stats on hard: Bonzi 81.6% first-serve points won, Friend 70.6% overall.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Even if Bonzi leads, Friend's resilience and Bonzi's second-serve weakness could keep the second set close.

• Bonzi last15 hard: second sets 6-4, 6-4; Friend last15 hard: second sets often 6-4, 7-5.
• Friend's fatigue may cause a late dip, but his break-point save rate (69.3%) could extend the set.
• Bonzi's second-serve points won on hard 48.4% is a vulnerability.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Bonzi's high ace rate on hard courts and Friend's decent serving push the total aces over 12.5.

• Bonzi last15 hard: 8.5 aces/match; Friend last15 hard: 4.5 aces/match.
• Combined average 13 aces in their recent hard-court matches.
• Bonzi's first-serve points won 81.6% on hard indicates ace potential; Friend's 70.6% overall also contributes.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players average over 3 double faults per match on hard, making over 4.5 likely in a competitive match.

• Bonzi last15 hard: 3.5 double faults/match; Friend last15 hard: 3.2 double faults/match.
• Combined average 6.7 double faults in their recent hard-court matches.
• Friend's fatigue may increase double faults; Bonzi's second-serve pressure could also contribute.