ItalyWTA RoveretoFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Lisa Pigato #109Italy0Lucie Havlickova #204Czechia2

Sets 0-6 · 1-6Wed 14 Oct 2026, 17:50 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLisa Pigato · 95 places

Lisa Pigato

Italy

Pigato is a right-handed Italian player, born in June 2003. Available public profile material did not provide a reliable declared preferred surface or current fitness update.

Current ranking: #109
Peak ranking: #128 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Lucie Havlickova

Czechia

Havlickova is a 21-year-old Czech right-hander. Official WTA and ITF profiles list hard court as her favourite surface and a career-high singles ranking of No. 196, reached in July 2023.

Current ranking: #204
Peak ranking: #196 · 2023
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 03:27 · Europe/Bucharest

At the Rovereto WTA 125, Pigato — ranked 109 and 10-1 across 11 completed hard-court matches — meets Havlickova, who fought back from 4-2 and 40-15 down to win her first round.

Pigato is the likelier winner of this second-round match, and the 1.6 quoted on her offers something; Havlickova at 2.3 asks for more than her 5-4 hard-court record gives.

Context

Pigato's two titles in Portugal are the clearest evidence of where her game currently stands and make her the higher-ranked player in this pairing on current form rather than reputation. The hard court in Rovereto sits closer to the carpet surface she lists as a preference than the clay she played in July, and she has won 11 of her last 12 hard-court matches. The limit is the level of those wins: most came at WTA 125 and W75 events, so they do not yet show she can pull clear of a player ranked in the low 200s.
- Beat Gabriela Knutson 6-4 6-2 in the WTA 125 Caldas da Rainha final for her second title at that level
- Beat Eva Vedder 1-6 6-0 6-3 in the W75 Quinta do Lago final
- Fifth title of the 2026 season, with a top-100 debut described as in sight
- Ranking rose 24 places to No. 113 after the Caldas da Rainha title
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:25 · Europe/Bucharest
The straight-set scoreline is less comfortable than it looks: Havlickova trailed in both sets of her opener before closing it out. It matters here because it is the freshest evidence of her level on the same hard court used for this fixture, and it came against a hard-court opponent in Klimovicova. The caveat is that she was broken early in each set, so the recovery does not by itself settle how she will start against the higher-ranked Pigato.
- Beat Linda Klimovicova 6-4 7-5 in the Rovereto first round
- Trailed 4-2 and 40-15 in the opening set and 3-1 in the second
- Won both sets after surrendering the early lead in each
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 03:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Pigato's completed hard-court sample is consistent and quick: 2-0 in six of 11 matches, one loss, and no tiebreak in any of them. The two retired matches excluded from that sample are the main limitation. It means her sets on this surface are usually decided before a tiebreak, not that one cannot happen.
- Pigato's 11 same-surface completed hard-court matches between 24 August and 12 October 2026 produced a 10-1 record, with set-one wins 9-2 and set-two wins 7-4.
- Six of the 11 matches finished 2-0, four 2-1 and one 0-2, averaging 20.6 games per match.
- No tiebreaks were played in that 11-match sample; two retired matches are excluded from it.
Havlickova's hard-court matches open better than they close: a 6-3 first-set record with 4.9 games won against 3.8 lost, then 4-5 in second sets with 4.4 games won against 5.3 lost. Pigato's second-set record in the same window is 7-4 with a positive game margin, so the later sets are where the two separate most clearly.
- Havlickova's nine same-surface completed hard-court matches (7 July to 12 October 2026) produced a 5-4 record.
- Set one: 6-3 with 4.89 games won and 3.78 lost per set; set two: 4-5 with 4.44 games won and 5.33 lost per set.
- Two of those nine matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Pigato has been far more consistent on hard courts this season and beat higher-ranked opposition in her recent title run.
- Pigato hard-court record 10-1 in 11 tracked matches; Havlickova 5-4 in 9
- Pigato set1 9-2 and set2 7-4 on hard; Havlickova set1 6-3, set2 4-5
- Pigato ranked No. 109 vs No. 204; Havlickova's hard losses include Bondar (No. 66)
- Pigato won 2-0 in 6 of 11 hard matches, Havlickova lost 0-2 in 3 of 9
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLisa PigatoEstimated chance71%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets have averaged below ten games on hard courts.
- Pigato's set1 average total is 8.9 games
- Havlickova's set1 average total is 8.7 games
- Only one tiebreak in either player's hard-court set1 sample
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have averaged just over this line.
- Pigato's hard-court total games average 20.6
- Havlickova's hard-court total games average 20.9
- Both players' recent totals cluster close to this line
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pigato's shorter second sets slightly outweigh Havlickova's longer ones.
- Pigato's set2 average total is 8.4 games
- Havlickova's set2 average total is 9.8 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pigato has started sets strongly on hard courts and rarely drops the opener.
- Pigato set1 record 9-2 on hard
- Havlickova set1 record 6-3, but she trailed 4-2 in her opener
- Pigato conceded only 3.5 games per set on average in set1
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLisa PigatoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pigato holds a clear edge in second sets on hard courts while Havlickova has been outscored there.
- Pigato set2 record 7-4 on hard, games won 4.8 vs lost 3.5
- Havlickova set2 record 4-5, games won 4.4 vs lost 5.3
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostLisa PigatoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' records show straight-set outcomes being more common than three-setters.
- Pigato straight-set results in 7 of 11 hard matches
- Havlickova straight-set results in 7 of 9 hard matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Across the combined hard-court samples, only a small minority of matches contained a tiebreak.
- Pigato 0 tiebreaks across 11 hard matches
- Havlickova 2 tiebreaks across 9 hard matches
- Havlickova's set1 average is 8.7 games and set2 9.8
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance66%

Prediction history

Lisa Pigato: 2/7 recent winner projections matched

2 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Lisa Pigato matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Lisa Pigato7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#133Lisa Pigato0-1#364Aurora Zantedeschi

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·72%

Missed

9 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#133Lisa Pigato0-1#364Aurora Zantedeschi

Lisa Pigato to win

72%probability

Aurora Zantedeschi won

Missed

7 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#212Angela Fita Boluda1-2#133Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·62%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#212Angela Fita Boluda1-2#133Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

62%probability

Lisa Pigato won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#152Noma Noha Akugue2-0#134Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·55%

Missed

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#152Noma Noha Akugue2-0#134Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

55%probability

Noma Noha Akugue won

Missed

8 Jun·WTA Modena

#139Katarzyna Kawa2-0#138Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·58%

Missed

8 Jun 2026

WTA Modena

#139Katarzyna Kawa2-0#138Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

58%probability

Katarzyna Kawa won

Missed

1 Jun·WTA Foggia

#224Elizara Yaneva0-2#138Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·65%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

WTA Foggia

#224Elizara Yaneva0-2#138Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

65%probability

Lisa Pigato won

Matched

Previous match context available

Lisa Pigato

12W 3L

6-4 6-4#194Julia Avdeeva

1-6 6-0 6-3#176Eva Vedder

4-0 ret.#191Katie Swan

7-5 4-6 6-2#224Polona Hercog

6-4 6-2#451Adrienn Nagy

6-1 6-1#466Jasmijn Gimbrere

6-4 6-2#163Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-3 7-5#123Jeline Vandromme

6-4 1-6 6-4#137Susan Bandecchi

6-2 2-6 6-4#247Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

6-0 6-1—Sana Garakani

6-3 6-3#219Linda Klimovicova

6-2 5-5 ret.#292Aurora Zantedeschi

6-1 1-6 7-6(7)#226Angela Fita Boluda

6-3 7-5#218Alice Tubello

Lucie Havlickova

9W 6L

6-4 7-5#219Linda Klimovicova

7-6(4) 1-6 6-3#154Ekaterine Gorgodze

6-2 6-3#292Aurora Zantedeschi

6-4 6-0#105Fiona Ferro

7-6(4) 6-1#260Lola Radivojevic

6-3 6-3#66Anna Bondar

6-0 6-4#196Nao Hibino

6-2 2-6 7-6(6)#121Moyuka Uchijima

6-2 7-5#146Elizara Yaneva

3-6 6-4 6-3#504Valeriya Strakhova

6-4 6-1#899Victoria Bervid

6-4 6-2#46Barbora Krejcikova

6-2 6-4#64Alycia Parks

6-7(3) 6-3 6-3#223Harmony Tan

6-0 6-4#196Nao Hibino

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LPLisa PigatoPigato

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Lucie HavlickovaHavlickovaLH

Lisa Pigato carries the stronger recent form — Lucie Havlickova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In71.3%+13.6pp57.7%

1st Serve Won61.0%+4.2pp65.2%

2nd Serve Won51.3%+7.3pp44.0%

Aces / Match0.5+3.64.1

Double Faults / Match3.22.3 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.1%+1.1pp46.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted54.0%+9.4pp44.6%

Break Pts Saved53.5%+11.6pp65.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.7%+1.4pp51.3%

Serve · 3–2

71.3%1st Serve In+13.6pp57.7%

61.0%1st Serve Won+4.2pp65.2%

51.3%2nd Serve Won+7.3pp44.0%

0.5Aces / Match+3.64.1

3.2Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

47.1%Return Pts Won+1.1pp46.0%

Pressure · 1–1

54.0%Break Pts Converted+9.4pp44.6%

53.5%Break Pts Saved+11.6pp65.1%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won+1.4pp51.3%