PortugalMaia - PortugalFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Marco Trungelliti #90Argentina2Thiago Moura Monteiro #235Brazil1

Sets 4-6 · 6-1 · 6-4Tue 13 Oct 2026, 15:56 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarco Trungelliti · 145 places

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

Reached his career-high ranking of No. 76 in April 2026. His ATP player profile lists hard as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #90
Peak ranking: #76 · 2026
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Brazil

Reached a career-high No. 61 in October 2022; the supplied current ranking is No. 276. He is a left-handed baseline player most established on clay, where all 16 of his Challenger finals have been played.

Current ranking: #235
Peak ranking: #61 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:33 · Europe/Bucharest

A near-even clay opener: higher-ranked Trungelliti returns from hard courts, while Monteiro, the lower-ranked left-hander, holds the fresher clay form.

Monteiro is the likelier winner, having beaten Trungelliti in three sets in Szczecin in September 2026. The 2.1 on a Monteiro win is the one quoted price worth taking; the 1.65 on Trungelliti asks too much.

Context

This is the pair's most recent meeting and it was decided on clay, the same surface as Maia, after Trungelliti took the second set; the series stood level at 2-2 before Monteiro edged it in September 2026. It is the freshest read on how the two match up on this surface, but it remains a single three-set match and the venue and conditions in Portugal differ from Szczecin.
- Monteiro beat Trungelliti 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 in the Szczecin Challenger semifinal on clay .
- The pair had split their first four meetings 2-2, and Trungelliti won their earlier Szczecin encounter in 2021.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 04:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Monteiro's ranking fell during an injury absence that began in March 2026, and his September clay-court wins and Szczecin final show him rebuilding match sharpness and ranking. That trajectory frames his Maia entry rather than signalling a fresh fitness problem; his most recent match was a first-round loss in Braga, so the recovery has not yet produced consistent results.
- Monteiro returned from an injury suffered in March 2026 and strung together clay-court Challenger wins in September 2026.
- He reached the Szczecin final, his first Challenger final in 18 months, finishing as runner-up.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 04:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Trungelliti's latest match was on the Shanghai hard courts, while Monteiro's last outing came on clay in Braga, so Trungelliti is the one making a surface switch on a short turnaround. Travel and re-adaptation to clay are concrete conditions around his Maia opener, though he is a long-established clay player and the transition is a familiar one.
- Trungelliti lost 6-3, 7-5 to Rei Sakamoto in the first round of the Shanghai Masters .
- He was listed to play the Maia Challenger the following week.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 04:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Those five matches span 8-19 September 2026, so the sample is small. The second-set strength is real within it, and he also took the middle set off Monteiro in Szczecin. Starting slowly is the risk: three of his five opening sets went to a tiebreak and he averaged 5.6 games won to 6.2 lost in the first.
- Trungelliti's clay set1 record is 2-3, averaging 5.6 games won and 6.2 lost across 5 matches (8-19 September 2026).
- His set2 record is 5-0, averaging 6.4 games won and 3.8 lost, with no tiebreaks.
- Three of those five opening sets reached a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Monteiro holds the recent clay edge in a near-even matchup, and Trungelliti must readjust to clay after hard-court matches.
- Monteiro is 9-6 in his clay sample of 15 matches; Trungelliti is 3-2 from 5 clay matches.
- Monteiro won their September clay meeting 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 in Szczecin.
- Clay total points won: Monteiro 50.5%, Trungelliti 50.1%.
- Trungelliti's last two matches were hard-court losses in Asia before this clay event.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance52%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets regularly go beyond nine games on clay.
- Trungelliti's clay set1 average total games is 11.8.
- Monteiro's clay set1 average total games is 10.3.
- Trungelliti has 3 tiebreaks in 5 opening sets.
- Monteiro has 4 tiebreaks in 15 opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average around ten games on clay.
- Trungelliti's clay set2 average total games is 10.2.
- Monteiro's clay set2 average total games is 10.0.
- Trungelliti's set2 games average is 6.4 won, 3.8 lost.
- Monteiro averages 4.8 set2 games lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined clay game totals sit just below this line.
- Combined clay average total games is about 26.8.
- Monteiro averages 26.5 total games per clay match.
- Trungelliti averages 27.8 total games per clay match.
- Both average 2.6 sets per clay match.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 27.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches frequently reach a deciding set, and their recent meeting did.
- 12 of the 20 combined clay matches went to a deciding set.
- Monteiro: 9 three-set matches in 15; Trungelliti: 3 in 5.
- Their September clay meeting went three sets.
- Both players average 2.6 sets per clay match.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monteiro has the stronger opening-set record on clay and took the first set in their recent meeting.
- Monteiro's clay set1 record is 8-7.
- Trungelliti's clay set1 record is 2-3.
- Trungelliti lost the first set to Monteiro in September.
- Trungelliti's set1 games average is 5.6 won, 6.2 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Trungelliti has been strong in second sets on clay, including against Monteiro.
- Trungelliti's clay set2 record is 5-0.
- Monteiro's clay set2 record is 9-6.
- Trungelliti won the second set in their September meeting.
- Trungelliti's set2 games average is 6.4 won, 3.8 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMarco TrungellitiEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay double-fault averages combine well below this line.
- Trungelliti averages 1.6 double faults per clay match.
- Monteiro averages 3.1 double faults per clay match.
- Combined clay average is 4.7 per match.
- Monteiro has 46 double faults in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average low ace counts on clay, and the combined figure sits below this line.
- Trungelliti averages 3.6 aces per clay match.
- Monteiro averages 3.6 aces per clay match.
- Combined clay average is 7.2 aces per match.
- Both are clay matches with slower conditions.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
About half of each player's clay matches include a tiebreak, and the matchup is close.
- Trungelliti had tiebreaks in 3 of 5 clay matches.
- Monteiro had tiebreaks in 7 of 15 clay matches.
- Combined, 10 of 20 clay matches featured a tiebreak.
- Both players average 2.6 sets per clay match.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance54%

Previous match context available

Marco Trungelliti

8W 7L

6-3 7-5#137Rei Sakamoto

6-4 7-5#84Alex Molcan

6-1 6-7(9) 7-6(2)#73Martin Landaluce

6-4 3-6 6-3#235Thiago Moura Monteiro

7-6(6) 7-5#163Marco Cecchinato

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#899Filip Pieczonka

7-6(4) 6-2#310Sean Cuenin

6-4 4-6 6-4#339Tiago Pereira

6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1#28Alexander Blockx

0-6 7-6(5) 1-6 6-3 6-4#214Juncheng Shang

6-4 7-5#5Daniil Medvedev

7-5 7-6(2)#78Hamad Medjedovic

4-6 7-5 6-3#436Kei Nishikori 4-6 6-4 7-6(4)#120Sebastian Ofner

7-6(5) 3-6 6-1#119Nicolas Mejia

Thiago Moura Monteiro

9W 6L

7-6(0) 5-7 6-4#181Elmer Moller

4-6 6-4 6-1#437Mika Petkovic

4-6 6-3 7-6(6)#157Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-4 3-6 6-3#90Marco Trungelliti

6-4 6-2#190Diego Dedura

6-7(3) 6-4 7-6(3)#172Vitaliy Sachko

6-3 7-6(3)#173Stefano Travaglia

6-3 6-4#230Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(5)#280Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 6-3#116Gustavo Heide

6-1 4-6 6-2#437Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-2#232Kimmer Coppejans

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#164Tom Gentzsch

6-2 6-4#372Tommaso Compagnucci

6-7(2) 6-4 6-4#434Ivan Gakhov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMarco TrungellitiTrungelliti

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Thiago Moura MonteiroMonteiroTM

Thiago Moura Monteiro carries the stronger recent form — Marco Trungelliti's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.4%+3.1pp62.5%

1st Serve Won70.5%—71.1%

2nd Serve Won48.0%+1.9pp49.9%

Aces / Match5.5+1.93.6

Double Faults / Match4.71.6 fewer3.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won36.5%—36.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.4%+2.9pp42.3%

Break Pts Saved60.8%+1.1pp61.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+1.4pp50.5%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

59.4%1st Serve In+3.1pp62.5%

70.5%1st Serve Won—71.1%

48.0%2nd Serve Won+1.9pp49.9%

5.5Aces / Match+1.93.6

4.7Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

36.5%Return Pts Won—36.9%

Pressure · 0–2

39.4%Break Pts Converted+2.9pp42.3%

60.8%Break Pts Saved+1.1pp61.9%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+1.4pp50.5%