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Predictions graded

Gauthier Onclin #168Belgium1Felix Balshaw #198France2

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 4-6Tue 13 Oct 2026, 10:19 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGauthier Onclin · 30 places

Gauthier Onclin

Belgium

At 25, he reached a career-high No. 167 on 3 August 2026. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #168
Peak ranking: #167 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Felix Balshaw

France

A 20-year-old, 193 cm right-hander with a one-handed backhand. He reached a career-high No. 246 in July 2026 during a rapid rise that included two Challenger finals.

Current ranking: #198
Peak ranking: #246 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 23:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Balshaw's serve and hard-court form against Onclin's higher ranking and better break-point conversion is the tension here.

Balshaw is the likelier winner, most plausibly in three sets, but 1.62 to win the match, 1.70 for the first set and 1.67 for the second all ask for more than the evidence gives. Only Balshaw 2-1 at 4 offers an edge.

Context

Both Mouilleron-le-Captif wins came in deciding sets, and the second was against Budkov Kjaer, then ranked around No. 152, so this is the clearest recent evidence of Balshaw's level on the same indoor hard courts used at Roanne. The qualification is that the run finished badly: he took the opening set of the quarter-final 6-3 and lost the next two to a player outside the top 350, then lost his opening match at Villena in three sets. Those results make the Mouilleron week the right reference point for what to expect at this tier rather than proof that his form is peaking.
- Balshaw beat Billy Harris 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(3) in the opening round
- He then beat Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 7-5 4-6 7-6(5)
- Henry Bernet won the quarter-final 3-6 6-2 6-3
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:37 · Europe/Bucharest
Balshaw's serve is the clearest reason he starts as favourite: he wins a far higher share of first-serve points than Onclin, who averaged 2.4 aces per match on hard. The risk attached to it is that he lands only 55.6% of first serves and double-faults 4.4 times a match, leaving second serves exposed. If Onclin holds his return position, that serving gap narrows rather than disappears.
- Aces: 113 across 14 matches with serve data (8.1 per match)
- First-serve points won: 500 of 680 (73.5%)
- First-serve percentage: 680 of 1,222 (55.6%)
- Double faults: 62 across 14 matches (4.4 per match)
The length comes from first sets that average 11.1 games, with four first-set tiebreaks in those 15 matches. Onclin's hard-court matches average 22.6 games and produced one tiebreak in 11, so the two pull in opposite directions on match length. It supports a close, three-set read, though four 2-0 wins among Balshaw's scorelines show he can also finish in straight sets.
- Set 1: 5.6 games won and 5.53 lost per match, with four tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Set 2: 5.2 games won and 5.2 lost per match, with three tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Total: 27.5 games and 2.53 sets per match across 15 hard-court matches, 10 August to 6 October 2026
- Scorelines: 2-1 in five, 1-2 in three, 2-0 in four, 0-2 in three
His first sets in those same 11 matches are level at 5-6, so the dip comes after the opener rather than from the start. Balshaw's second sets are also level at 7-8, which makes the second set a place where Onclin has most often slipped rather than a clear edge for his opponent. The sample covers 11 matches across two months, so it is a signal rather than a settled pattern.
- Second sets: 3 wins and 8 losses, 4.18 games won and 5.27 lost per match (11 hard-court matches, 12 August to 6 October 2026)
- First sets: 5 wins and 6 losses, 4.55 games won and 5.27 lost per match
- Scorelines: 0-2 in five, 1-2 in one, 2-1 in three, 2-0 in two
- Total games per match: 22.6; sets per match: 2.36; one match with a tiebreak

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Felix Balshaw

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

−0.8ppshort

Balshaw starts sets better than Onclin does and has won the opening set in three-fifths of his hard-court matches.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Felix Balshaw

1.62fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 61.7%

−3.7ppshort

Balshaw has the stronger serve and better hard-court results over this window, while Onclin has lost five of his last six completed matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Balshaw has the stronger serve and better hard-court results over this window, while Onclin has lost five of his last six completed matches.
- Hard-court last 15: Balshaw 9-6, Onclin 5-6
- Hard-court first-serve points won: Balshaw 73.5% vs Onclin 66.4%
- Aces per match: Balshaw 8.1 vs Onclin 2.4
- Hard-court games won: Balshaw 50.6% vs Onclin 47.0%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelix BalshawEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average close to or above ten games, with Balshaw's serve often forcing tiebreaks.
- Set1 games average: Balshaw 11.1, Onclin 9.8
- Balshaw has 4 first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches
- Neither player has a first serve in above 58%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets involving Balshaw have averaged more than ten games, and his serve keeps them close.
- Set2 games average: Balshaw 10.4, Onclin 9.5
- Balshaw has 3 second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches
- Balshaw's hard-court matches average 2.53 sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Balshaw's sets are consistently long, averaging about 11 games each, and his recent matches have all been extended.
- Balshaw's hard-court matches average 27.5 games
- Balshaw's recent matches averaged 29.5 games across six outings
- Onclin's hard-court matches average 22.6 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 25.5Estimated chance53%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Balshaw starts sets better than Onclin does and has won the opening set in three-fifths of his hard-court matches.
- Hard-court set1 record: Balshaw 9-6, Onclin 5-6
- Set1 games won average: Balshaw 5.6 vs Onclin 4.5
- Balshaw has played 4 first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFelix BalshawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have gone the distance in a substantial share of recent matches, though most of Onclin's hard-court results were settled in two.
- Balshaw's hard-court matches averaged 2.53 sets
- Onclin's hard-court matches averaged 2.36 sets
- Balshaw 2-1 in 5 and 1-2 in 3 of 15; Onclin 2-1 in 3 and 1-2 in 1 of 11
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
The second set is clearly Onclin's weakest part of the match, while Balshaw's second sets are roughly even.
- Hard-court set2 record: Onclin 3-8, Balshaw 7-8
- Onclin's set2 games-won average is 4.2
- Balshaw has played 3 second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostFelix BalshawEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined record leans toward matches being decided by breaks rather than reaching 6-6.
- Onclin has had only 1 tiebreak in 11 hard-court matches
- Balshaw's matches with no tiebreak: 6 of 15
- Both players break points converted below 50%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin's low double-fault rate pulls the combined expectation just under the line.
- Combined hard-court double-fault average is 6.4
- Onclin averages 2.0 double faults per hard-court match
- Balshaw's first-serve percentage is 55.6%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits right on the line, and Balshaw's serving volume in long matches nudges it above.
- Balshaw averages 8.1 aces per hard-court match
- Onclin averages 2.4 aces per match
- Combined hard-court average is about 10.5 aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Felix Balshaw: 9/12 recent winner projections matched

9 of 12 comparable winner projections favouring Felix Balshaw matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Felix Balshaw12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

13 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#242Stefano Napolitano2-1#259Felix Balshaw

BetBugsFelix Balshaw to win·62%

Missed

13 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#242Stefano Napolitano2-1#259Felix Balshaw

Felix Balshaw to win

62%probability

Stefano Napolitano won

Missed

27 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw0-2#285Sumit Nagal

BetBugsFelix Balshaw to win·62%

Missed

27 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw0-2#285Sumit Nagal

Felix Balshaw to win

62%probability

Sumit Nagal won

Missed

26 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-0#277Andrej Nedic

BetBugsFelix Balshaw to win·60%

Matched

26 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-0#277Andrej Nedic

Felix Balshaw to win

60%probability

Felix Balshaw won

Matched

25 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-1#280Martin Krumich

BetBugsFelix Balshaw to win·62%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-1#280Martin Krumich

Felix Balshaw to win

62%probability

Felix Balshaw won

Matched

23 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-0#853Stefan Horia Haita

BetBugsFelix Balshaw to win·78%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-0#853Stefan Horia Haita

Felix Balshaw to win

78%probability

Felix Balshaw won

Matched

Gauthier Onclin

7W 8L

4-6 6-2 6-3#178Daniil Glinka

6-1 6-4#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-6(4) 6-2#391Dan Added

6-4 6-1#140Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-2#301Raphael Perot

7-5 7-5#172Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 6-4#68Vit Kopriva

2-6 6-2 6-3#210Timofey Skatov

6-4 5-7 6-4#233Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 6-4#620Ryan Seggerman

6-3 6-3#203Andres Andrade

6-4 3-6 6-3#344Tyler Zink

6-2 2-6 7-6(2)#190Diego Dedura

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#164Tom Gentzsch

6-2 7-6(6)#415Niels Visker

Felix Balshaw

9W 6L

6-7(1) 6-3 7-5#176Joel Schwaerzler

3-6 6-2 6-3#371Henry Bernet

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#152Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(3)#241Billy Harris

6-4 6-4#152Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

3-6 6-2 6-3#175Inaki Montes-De La Torre

7-6(7) 7-5#149Mark Lajal

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#241Billy Harris

7-5 6-2#133Alexandre Muller

7-6(3) 7-5#236August Holmgren

6-4 7-6(4)#81Aleksandar Kovacevic

4-6 6-4 6-3#413Sebastian Gorzny

7-5 6-3#874Luca Pow

6-4 7-6(3)#233Alejandro Moro Canas

5-7 7-5 7-6(0)#315Daniel Milavsky

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GOGauthier OnclinOnclin

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Felix BalshawBalshawFB

Felix Balshaw carries the stronger recent form — Gauthier Onclin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In13/15 · 14/1557.7%+2.1pp55.6%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 14/1566.6%+6.9pp73.5%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 14/1551.7%+2.9pp54.6%

Aces / Match13/15 · 14/152.0+6.18.1

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 14/152.42.0 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 14/1538.1%+1.4pp36.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 14/1546.3%+8.8pp37.5%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 14/1552.3%+7.9pp60.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 14/1549.3%+1.4pp50.7%

Serve · 2–3

57.7%1st Serve In13/15 · 14/15+2.1pp55.6%

66.6%1st Serve Won13/15 · 14/15+6.9pp73.5%

51.7%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 14/15+2.9pp54.6%

2.0Aces / Match13/15 · 14/15+6.18.1

2.4Double Faults / Match13/15 · 14/152.0 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

38.1%Return Pts Won13/15 · 14/15+1.4pp36.7%

Pressure · 1–1

46.3%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 14/15+8.8pp37.5%

52.3%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 14/15+7.9pp60.2%

Points · 0–1

49.3%Total Pts Won13/15 · 14/15+1.4pp50.7%

Gauthier Onclin

Felix Balshaw

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Felix Balshaw 2-1

Felix Balshaw

Felix Balshaw

Felix Balshaw

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Gauthier Onclin

Felix Balshaw

Stat Battle