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Predictions graded

Alex De Minaur #9Australia2Karen Khachanov #27Russia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Tue 13 Oct 2026, 04:07 Predictions gradedFourth RoundHard

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex De Minaur · 18 places

Alex De Minaur

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 5 in July 2026. He was listed at No. 7 during US Open preparation in August. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #9
Peak ranking: #5 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Karen Khachanov

Russia

Russian player born 21 May 1996. His ITF profile lists a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 8 in July 2019 and preferred surfaces of hard and clay.

Current ranking: #27
Peak ranking: #8 · 2019
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 15:13 · Europe/Bucharest

De Minaur is the higher-ranked player and won their last meeting 6-2 6-2, but he retired with an adductor injury in Beijing and has completed only one match in Shanghai.

Khachanov has won two of their four meetings and took his latest match 6-2 6-4. De Minaur at 1.8 to win the match and 1.8 to win the second set are the two prices that offer something; a 1.55 straight-sets finish asks too much.

Context

De Minaur retired from the Beijing final with an adductor injury, then returned in Shanghai and beat Rei Sakamoto 7-6(6) 6-4 to reach the last 16. Because his game depends on lateral movement and extended defence, an adductor problem directly affects how he covers the court against a flat, heavy hitter such as Khachanov. He reached this round with only one completed match, so his body has not yet been tested across a long match. The limitation is that no scan result or current strapping has been disclosed, so the injury has been tested only across two sets.
- Retired early in the second set of the Beijing final with an adductor injury.
- Said after the final that he intended to travel to Shanghai for scans.
- His Beijing run included three-set comebacks over Quentin Halys and Andrey Rublev before he reached the final.
- Beat Rei Sakamoto 7-6(6) 6-4 in his first completed match in Shanghai.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Khachanov came through a three-tie-break second-round match against Arthur Fery, then closed out Adrian Mannarino 6-2 6-4 to reach the last 16. That long opener is the main physical question on his side, since De Minaur reached the same round with only one completed match. Khachanov did have a rest day before this match and finished the Mannarino win in straight sets, which limits how much the Fery match can be read into this fixture.
- Needed three tie-breaks to beat Arthur Fery in the second round.
- Beat Adrian Mannarino 6-2 6-4 to reach the Shanghai last 16.
- The Moscow-born player improved his head-to-head record against Mannarino to 6-0.
- Reached the Shanghai fourth round for the second time in his career.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 15:10 · Europe/Bucharest
That is the clearest recent result between the two and came in straight sets, which supports the case for De Minaur in this round. It is one match rather than a trend: Khachanov has also won two of the four meetings, so the head-to-head is level overall.
- 30 October 2025: De Minaur beat Khachanov 6-2 6-2.
- Sample: one match, the most recent of four meetings between the pair.
Over those ten hard-court best-of-three matches De Minaur's opening sets were close to even (4.8 games won, 5.2 lost) while his second sets were clearly stronger (6.0 won, 3.9 lost). That suggests the first set may be the more competitive phase of this match. The sample is small and second-set scores are shaped by how the match is going.
- 6 August to 11 October 2026: 10 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Set 1: 6-4, averaging 4.8 games won and 5.2 games lost.
- Set 2: 8-2, averaging 6.0 games won and 3.9 games lost.
- Tiebreaks: two in the first set and three in the second.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.55fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 64.5%

−7.5ppshort

Straight-set finishes are the most common outcome for both players in this window.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
De Minaur is the higher-ranked player with stronger recent hard-court results and a straight-set win in the last meeting.
- Ranked 9th against 27th; 10-3 on hard in this window against Khachanov's 8-5.
- Won the most recent meeting 6-2 6-2 and the head-to-head is 2-2.
- Set2 record of 8-2 on hard best-of-3.
- Retired with an adductor injury in the Beijing final, then won his first Shanghai match 7-6 6-4.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlex De MinaurEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Khachanov has mostly stayed within three games in recent matches.
- Khachanov's recent margins were +6, +1, -5, +5, +6 and -5.
- He beat De Minaur by four games in 2022 and 2024.
- Only three of De Minaur's last six matches were won by three games or more.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKaren Khachanov +2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have generally produced around or above 25 games.
- Both players show a total games average of 24 in setEvidence.
- De Minaur's last six completed matches averaged about 27 games.
- Khachanov's last six averaged about 25 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have averaged around ten games for both players.
- De Minaur's set1 total games average is 10.0.
- Khachanov's set1 total games average is 10.625.
- Set1 has produced two tiebreaks for each player.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also averaged about ten games for both players.
- De Minaur's set2 total games average is 9.9.
- Khachanov's set2 total games average is 10.125.
- Set2 has produced three tiebreaks for De Minaur and two for Khachanov.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With a 1.5-game start Khachanov survives a narrow loss or better.
- Khachanov's recent margins were +6, +1, -5, +5, +6 and -5.
- He beat De Minaur twice on hard courts.
- De Minaur's non-wins in this sample include a margin of 0 and -1.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKaren Khachanov +1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
De Minaur's second-set record is clearly stronger than Khachanov's.
- De Minaur is 8-2 in set2 on hard best-of-3.
- He averages 6.0 games won and 3.9 lost in set2.
- Khachanov is 3-5 in set2 in this window.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlex De MinaurEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most common outcome for both players in this window.
- De Minaur 2-0 in five of eight hard-court wins.
- Khachanov 2-0 in three of four hard-court wins.
- De Minaur's total sets average is 2.4 and Khachanov's is 2.25.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
De Minaur has the better overall record but tends to start slowly.
- De Minaur is 6-4 in set1 on hard best-of-3.
- He averages 4.8 games won and 5.2 lost in set1.
- Khachanov is 5-3 in set1 in this window.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlex De MinaurEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A majority of both players' recent hard-court matches featured at least one tiebreak.
- Six of De Minaur's ten hard best-of-3 matches had a tiebreak.
- Four of Khachanov's eight matches had a tiebreak.
- Khachanov's Fery win had three tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance56%

Prediction history

Alex De Minaur: 10/15 recent winner projections matched

10 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Alex De Minaur matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Alex De Minaur15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·ATP Washington

#6Alex De Minaur0-2#33Brandon Nakashima

BetBugsAlex De Minaur to win·62%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#6Alex De Minaur0-2#33Brandon Nakashima

Alex De Minaur to win

62%probability

Brandon Nakashima won

Missed

30 Jul·ATP Washington

#6Alex De Minaur2-0#612Cruz Hewitt

BetBugsAlex De Minaur to win·92%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#6Alex De Minaur2-0#612Cruz Hewitt

Alex De Minaur to win

92%probability

Alex De Minaur won

Matched

29 Jul·ATP Washington

#5Alex De Minaur2-1#51Stefanos Tsitsipas

BetBugsAlex De Minaur to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#5Alex De Minaur2-1#51Stefanos Tsitsipas

Alex De Minaur to win

58%probability

Alex De Minaur won

Matched

6 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#6Alex De Minaur0-3#10Flavio Cobolli

BetBugsAlex De Minaur to win·62%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#6Alex De Minaur0-3#10Flavio Cobolli

Alex De Minaur to win

62%probability

Flavio Cobolli won

Missed

4 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#6Alex De Minaur3-1#66Zachary Svajda

BetBugsAlex De Minaur to win·85%

Matched

4 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#6Alex De Minaur3-1#66Zachary Svajda

Alex De Minaur to win

85%probability

Alex De Minaur won

Matched

Head-to-Head

2-2 (4 meetings)

W6-2 6-2Alex De Minaur#9vKaren Khachanov#27Oct 30, 2025

L6-2 6-4Alex De Minaur#9vKaren Khachanov#27Oct 26, 2024

L6-3 6-7(1) 7-5Alex De Minaur#9vKaren Khachanov#27Feb 22, 2022

W6-4 0-6 4-6 6-3 6-1Alex De Minaur#9vKaren Khachanov#27Sep 5, 2020

4 total meetings

Previous match context available

Alex De Minaur

11W 4L

7-6(6) 6-4#137Rei Sakamoto

7-6(3) 0-1 ret.#11Novak Djokovic

6-4 3-2 ret.#34Hubert Hurkacz

1-6 6-2 6-3#23Andrey Rublev

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#48Quentin Halys

7-6(4) 6-2#47Mariano Navone

2-6 7-6(5) 11-9#2Alexander Zverev

6-3 6-3#70Kamil Majchrzak

6-3 6-0#238Maks Kasnikowski

6-4 7-5 6-2#41Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-2 6-2 6-4#165Andrea Guerrieri

6-3 6-4#10Arthur Fils

7-5 7-6(3)#37Arthur Fery

1-6 6-3 7-6(4)#48Quentin Halys

5-7 7-6(5) 6-1#40Cameron Norrie

Karen Khachanov

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#83Adrian Mannarino 7-6(6) 6-7(5) 7-6(2)#37Arthur Fery

7-6(2) 6-2#34Hubert Hurkacz

7-5 6-3#84Alex Molcan

6-3 6-3#6Felix Auger Aliassime

6-3 7-6(7) 7-6(6)#2Alexander Zverev

6-2 7-5 3-2 ret.#28Alexander Blockx

7-5 4-6 6-7(6) 6-1 6-4#16Learner Tien

6-3 6-2 6-4#92Benjamin Bonzi

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2 6-2#6Felix Auger Aliassime

6-3 6-0 6-1#62Roman Andres Burruchaga

5-7 6-3 7-6(2)#81Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-4 7-6(3)#99Terence Atmane

6-2 6-4#185Bernard Tomic

0-6 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-2 6-2#7Flavio Cobolli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAlex De MinaurMinaur

Last 15

1–5

9 core stats · 3 even

Karen KhachanovKhachanovKK

Karen Khachanov carries the stronger recent form — Alex De Minaur's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1557.4%+3.4pp60.8%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1571.0%+5.8pp76.8%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1556.1%+2.3pp53.8%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/155.2+3.18.3

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.8—2.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1537.7%—37.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1536.0%+9.1pp45.1%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1567.7%—67.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1550.8%+1.6pp52.4%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

57.4%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+3.4pp60.8%

71.0%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+5.8pp76.8%

56.1%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+2.3pp53.8%

5.2Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+3.18.3

2.8Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/15—2.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.7%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15—37.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

36.0%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+9.1pp45.1%

67.7%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15—67.1%

Points · 0–1

50.8%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.6pp52.4%