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Predictions graded

Max Purcell #685Australia0Filip Peliwo #661Canada2

Sets 6-7 · 1-6Tue 6 Oct 2026, 02:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFilip Peliwo · 24 places

Max Purcell

Australia

Australian player returning to sanctioned competition after his suspension ended in June 2026. Reliable profile-source results in the requested searches were otherwise limited.

Current ranking: #685
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Filip Peliwo

Canada

Peliwo reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2018. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #661
Peak ranking: #161 · 2018
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Oct 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players 24 ranking places apart, Purcell arriving with 11 wins in his last 14 hard-court matches and the first set taken in 12 of them, Peliwo ranked higher but beaten in straight sets in his last two completed matches.

Purcell is the fair favourite, though 1.02 to win the match justifies nothing. The worthwhile prices are all on Peliwo: 10.0 to win, 6.5 for either set, 12.0 for a 2-0 win.

Context

A mid-match retirement inside the last three weeks is the clearest current physical signal attached to either player here, and it came during a stretch in which Peliwo had been winning matches week to week on the Asian swing. The counterweight is real: he played again the following week and won two qualifying matches in China, so the retirement did not end his trip and no physical problem has been confirmed since. It is best read as a caution about his durability in a long, physical opening-round match rather than as a settled fitness finding.
- Peliwo retired in the round of 16 at Phan Thiet 4 with the score 6-1 4-2 to Moise Kouame.
- The retirement put Kouame into the quarterfinals of the Vietnamese Challenger.
- No reason for the retirement was stated in the reporting.
ReportedSources checked 5 Oct 2026, 23:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Two and a half weeks before this match, Purcell was winning a live doubles rubber for Australia against a Poland side, which shows a competitive level well above what his position outside the top 600 suggests. It also confirms he is fully active and match-tested after his return from suspension, having come through a team-week environment. The limitation is clear: that evidence is doubles, and singles form at Challenger level is what decides this match.
- Purcell and Rinky Hijikata won the doubles rubber against Poland 7-6(3) 6-3 in Brisbane.
- The win gave Australia a 2-1 lead before Alex de Minaur sealed a 3-1 tie victory.
- Purcell was selected in the Australian squad for the World Group I tie.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Oct 2026, 23:43 · Europe/Bucharest
In a best-of-three, a first set won 12 times in 14 is the clearest recent edge either player brings here. Peliwo's own opening-set record in his 18 August to 28 September window is a respectable 8-6, so the gap is not overwhelming, and one of Purcell's 14 first sets went to a tiebreak. The 14-match sample excludes one retirement.
- Purcell won set one in 12 of 14 completed hard-court matches between 28 June and 4 October 2026.
- He averaged 5.79 games won and 3.86 games lost in those opening sets.
- One of the 14 first sets went to a tiebreak, and the sample excludes one retirement.
Purcell arrives at his first-round match with one completed singles match in two days plus a walkover rest day, while several qualifiers in the same draw played two or three matches to get through. That is a small freshness and preparation edge rather than a demonstrated playing advantage, and the walkover itself says nothing about his form. His 6-4 6-4 win over De Cuyper is the only competitive singles evidence from this week, so his level here rests on a short sample.
- Purcell beat Julien De Cuyper 6-4 6-4 on 4 October to open his Wuning 3 qualifying campaign.
- Blake Bayldon failed to appear for the final qualifying round, sending Purcell into the main draw without a match.
- Purcell is listed as a qualifier in the first-round pairings against Filip Peliwo.
ReportedSources checked 5 Oct 2026, 23:43 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Purcell comes in with the better recent hard-court record and has been notably strong at the start of matches, which matters in a best-of-three.
- Purcell is 11-3 in his last 14 completed hard-court matches; Peliwo is 8-6.
- Purcell has won the first set in 12 of 14 hard-court matches; Peliwo is 8-6 in first sets.
- Purcell has won 10 of 14 matches in straight sets, suggesting he closes matches quickly.
- Peliwo's two most recent completed matches were straight-set losses to Bellucci (No. 86) and Kuan-Shou Chen (No. 752).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMax PurcellEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peliwo's opening sets have usually been short, tipping the combined expectation just under the line.
- Peliwo's first-set total games average is 8.79.
- Peliwo has had first sets such as 6-1, 6-2 and 6-4 in recent matches.
- Purcell's first-set average of 9.64 is only slightly above the line.
- Most first sets in the window finished without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Purcell's efficient second sets pull the combined expectation just below the line.
- Purcell's second-set total games average is 9.07.
- Purcell has won second sets by margins such as 6-1 and 6-2.
- Peliwo's second-set average of 9.43 is close to the line.
- Second-set tiebreaks are rare in both players' samples.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Short straight-set results are common for both players, giving the under a slight lean.
- Purcell's total-games average on hard is 20.64.
- Peliwo's total-games average on hard is 20.57.
- Many of Purcell's recent wins finished with only 17-20 total games.
- Peliwo has five 0-2 losses with low total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' recent results, making a two-set match the more plausible outcome.
- Purcell's scorelines in the window include ten 2-0 wins.
- Peliwo's scorelines include six 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses.
- 11 of Peliwo's 14 completed hard-court matches ended in straight sets.
- Neither player's set-two record shows a strong tendency to extend matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Purcell's first-set record is markedly stronger than Peliwo's, suggesting he starts matches better.
- Purcell has won the first set in 12 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Purcell's first-set games average is 5.79 won against 3.86 lost.
- Peliwo has won the first set in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Peliwo's first-set games average is 4.57 won against 4.21 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMax PurcellEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Purcell's second-set record is clearly better than Peliwo's, who has been slightly negative in that set.
- Purcell has won the second set in 11 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Peliwo has split second sets 7-7 on hard.
- Purcell's second-set games average is 5.57 won against 3.50 lost.
- Peliwo's second-set games average is 4.50 won against 4.93 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMax PurcellEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent matches for both players finished without a tiebreak, favouring the no side.
- 10 of Purcell's 14 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- 10 of Peliwo's 14 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- Straight-set finishes dominate both players' recent scorelines.
- Both players' first-set games averages are near nine.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance72%

Max Purcell

11W 4L

6-4 6-4#2008Julien De Cuyper

7-6(2) 6-1#881Taiyo Yamanaka

6-2 6-4#1581Zhao Zhao

7-5 6-3#894Jumpei Yamasaki

6-3 2-6 6-2#154Ilia Simakin

7-5 6-3#331Cruz Hewitt

6-4 6-4#462Blake Ellis

6-3 6-4#266Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 6-3#203Andres Andrade

6-2 6-2#441Garrett Johns

6-4 6-2#274Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

3-6 6-3 6-4#186Harold Mayot

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#421Blaise Bicknell

5-3 ret.#841Joshua Charlton

6-0 6-1#283Matthew Dellavedova

Filip Peliwo

8W 7L

6-2 6-4#86Mattia Bellucci

6-3 6-3#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-4 6-2#439Enzo Aguiard

6-1 7-5—Xing Dao Chen

6-1 4-2 ret.#201Moise Kouame

1-6 6-3 6-4#510Tai Sach

6-1 6-4#852Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4—Arjun Rathi

7-6(5) 6-2#409Arthur Weber

7-6(2) 6-3#450Kenta Miyoshi

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#865Grigoriy Lomakin

6-2 6-3#422Omar Jasika

6-3 7-6(3)#898Sheng Tang

3-6 6-2 6-4#841Joshua Charlton

6-1 6-1#268Charles Broom

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MPMax PurcellPurcell

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Filip PeliwoPeliwoFP

Max Purcell carries the stronger recent form — Filip Peliwo's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.6%—57.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1575.6%+4.5pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1555.6%+10.6pp45.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/157.1+3.23.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.61.2 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.7%+0.8pp39.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1551.0%+13.9pp37.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1565.6%+3.9pp69.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.6%+3.5pp50.1%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

57.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15—57.6%

75.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.5pp71.1%

55.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+10.6pp45.0%

7.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.23.9

1.6Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.2 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

40.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp39.9%

Pressure · 1–1

51.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+13.9pp37.1%

65.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.9pp69.5%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.5pp50.1%

Max Purcell

Filip Peliwo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Filip Peliwo

Filip Peliwo

Filip Peliwo

Filip Peliwo 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Max Purcell

Filip Peliwo

Stat Battle