SpainVillena - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Edas Butvilas #199Lithuania1Max Hans Rehberg #280Germany2

Sets 6-1 · 4-6 · 5-7Wed 7 Oct 2026, 12:43 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEdas Butvilas · 81 places

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #199
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Max Hans Rehberg

Germany

Rehberg reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 230 on 31 March 2025. He is a German right-hander from Munich; the available player-profile source lists hard courts as his strongest career surface.

Current ranking: #280
Peak ranking: #230 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 03:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Butvilas, the higher-ranked player with a 14-match hard-court block behind him, is the more likely winner against a qualifier who has had to come from a set down twice.

The 1.60 on Butvilas to win the opening set gives no edge, the 1.55 to win the match asks for more than his record supports, and Rehberg's 2.30 and 2.20 are no better, so no quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Rehberg came through two qualifying rounds in as many days at Villena: 6-7(8) 6-3 6-3 against Daniel Cukierman on 4 October and 5-7 6-3 6-3 against Mili Poljicak . He therefore reaches a first round that Butvilas entered directly carrying six sets and two dropped opening sets against an opponent who has not yet played at the venue. The extra load is real but modest, and the two wins show he can absorb early setbacks rather than establish a repeatable rate.
- Rehberg beat Daniel Cukierman 6-7(8) 6-3 6-3 on 4 October 2026 and Mili Poljicak 5-7 6-3 6-3 to reach the Villena main draw.
- Rehberg was confirmed as facing Edas Butvilas in the first round after coming through the qualifying draw.
- Butvilas entered the Villena main draw directly and had not played at the venue before this first-round match.
- Rehberg's two qualifying wins covered six sets across two days.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 03:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Butvilas beat Grigor Dimitrov 7-6(3) 6-3 in the first round of the Saint-Tropez Challenger 125, the strongest result of his recent hard-court block and a win over a former world No. 3 seeded sixth at the event. It shows he can take an opening set and close out a higher-profile opponent in straight sets. The result did not carry into a run, though: he lost his next Saint-Tropez match to Harold Mayot in straight sets, so it stands as one high-level win rather than sustained form.
- Butvilas beat Grigor Dimitrov 7-6(3) 6-3 in the first round of the Saint-Tropez Challenger 125 .
- Dimitrov was the sixth seed at Saint-Tropez and was ranked No. 127 at the time.
- Butvilas lost his next match at Saint-Tropez to Harold Mayot in straight sets.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 03:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Butvilas has been the quicker starter in the large majority of his recent hard-court matches, which shapes how the opening set against Rehberg is likely to look.
Winning the first set in 10 of 14 hard-court matches is the most repeatable pattern in Butvilas's recent record, and it stands against a Rehberg hard-court sample of only two matches. The four tiebreaks in those 14 first sets also suggest the opener can stay tight rather than run away in either direction.
- Butvilas's hard-court setEvidence covers 14 completed matches from 9 August to 2 October 2026.
- He won set one in 10 of those 14 matches and lost it four times.
- Four of those 14 first sets went to a tiebreak.
Rehberg won the M25 at Santa Margherita di Pula in the week of 15-19 September, the fourth ITF title of his career, and arrived at Villena straight from that clay-court block. Almost all of his recent matches have been on clay, so the Villena hard court is a surface he had to re-adapt to during qualifying. A title is a form signal, but M25 fields sit well below Challenger level, and his two three-set qualifying wins show the surface transition has not been immediate.
- Rehberg was listed among the ITF men's singles winners for the week of 15-19 September 2026 at the M25 in Santa Margherita di Pula.
- The title was the fourth ITF singles title of his career.
- Rehberg reached the Villena main draw directly from the M25 title, which was played on clay.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 03:32 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Edas Butvilas

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

−6.5ppshort

Butvilas is the higher-ranked player with a much larger hard-court sample and a clear early-set record, while Rehberg's hard-court evidence rests on only two qualifying matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Butvilas is the higher-ranked player with a much larger hard-court sample and a clear early-set record, while Rehberg's hard-court evidence rests on only two qualifying matches.
- Butvilas is ranked No. 199, Rehberg No. 280
- Butvilas is 8-6 on hard courts across his last 14 completed matches (setEvidence denominator 14)
- Butvilas has won the opening set in 10 of those 14 hard-court matches
- Rehberg is 2-0 on hard this week but both wins came in three sets after losing the first
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEdas ButvilasEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in both players' recent hard-court matches average above this line.
- Butvilas's first sets average 10.6 total games over 14 hard matches
- Rehberg's first sets average 12.5 total games over 2 hard matches
- 4 of Butvilas's 14 first sets went to a tiebreak
- Rehberg's most recent first set was 5-7
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's straight-set tendency pulls the expected total below the line, and Rehberg's long qualifiers are too few to outweigh it.
- Butvilas's 14 hard-court matches average 24.4 total games
- Butvilas's matches average 2.36 sets, with 64% ending in two sets
- Rehberg's two hard matches both went three sets
- Rehberg's total-games figure of 30.5 rests on only two matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 27.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set averages sit at or just below nine and a half games.
- Butvilas's second sets average 9.6 total games on hard
- Rehberg won both second sets by 6-3 this week
- Rehberg's second sets average 9.0 games
- Butvilas's second sets produced only one tiebreak in 14
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Butvilas's first-set record on hard is strong and Rehberg has started both Villena matches slowly.
- Butvilas has won set one in 10 of 14 hard-court matches, losing 4
- Rehberg has lost set one in both hard-court matches this week, averaging 5.5 games won to 7 lost
- Rehberg also dropped the first set in his most recent clay match
- Four of Butvilas's 14 first sets went to a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas's second-set record is balanced, leaving only a modest lean because Rehberg's two-set-two wins come from a two-match sample.
- Butvilas won 7 and lost 7 second sets across 14 hard-court matches
- Rehberg won both of his second sets this week, 6-3 each time
- Rehberg is 2-0 on hard-court second sets in setEvidence
- Only one of Butvilas's 14 second sets went to a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostEdas ButvilasEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas has reached at least one tiebreak in half his hard-court matches, and first sets between these two have often been tight.
- Butvilas has had a tiebreak in 7 of 14 hard-court matches
- Rehberg has had one tiebreak in two hard-court matches
- Butvilas's first sets produced 4 tiebreaks in 14
- Rehberg's most recent qualifying match included a 7-6 first set
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Edas Butvilas

9W 6L

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#249Jerome Kym

6-1 7-5#356Moez Echargui

6-4 6-1#345Michael Geerts

6-4 6-3#186Harold Mayot

7-6(3) 6-3#127Grigor Dimitrov

7-5 1-6 7-5#61Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#248Max Basing

7-6(1) 6-1#506Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-2#570Gabriel Ghetu

4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#528Luca Potenza

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#227Remy Bertola

2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#120Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#315Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#151Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#194Andre Ilagan

Max Hans Rehberg

10W 5L

5-7 6-3 6-3#286Mili Poljicak

6-7(8) 6-3 6-3#841Daniel Cukierman

6-0 6-1#379Andrey Chepelev

6-3 6-2#395Eric Vanshelboim

3-6 6-4 6-0#624Alexander Weis

6-3 6-2#866Giannicola Misasi

6-4 6-4#893Niccolo Catini

6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(5)#235Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 6-4#197Facundo Mena

6-3 6-4#289Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 6-1#232Kimmer Coppejans

5-3 ret.#775Jakub Nicod

6-1 5-7 7-5#581Saba Purtseladze

6-1 6-4#190Diego Dedura

4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(4)#383Daniel Elahi Galan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EBEdas ButvilasButvilas

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Max Hans RehbergRehbergMR

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1563.2%+1.8pp65.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1571.5%+1.9pp69.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1551.6%—51.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/155.3+2.23.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/151.90.4 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1540.3%+2.8pp43.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1546.3%+4.6pp50.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1558.8%—58.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1552.3%—52.8%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

63.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+1.8pp65.0%

71.5%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+1.9pp69.6%

51.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15—51.1%

5.3Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+2.23.1

1.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/150.4 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

40.3%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+2.8pp43.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

46.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+4.6pp50.9%

58.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15—58.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—52.8%