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Predictions graded

Max Hans Rehberg #332Germany2Mili Poljicak #264Croatia1

Sets 5-7 · 6-3 · 6-3Mon 5 Oct 2026, 11:43 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMili Poljicak · 68 places

Max Hans Rehberg

Germany

Rehberg reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 230 on 31 March 2025. He is a German right-hander from Munich; the available player-profile source lists hard courts as his strongest career surface.

Current ranking: #332
Peak ranking: #230 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

Croatian right-hander, born 13 July 2004, reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 257 on 30 June 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #264
Peak ranking: #257 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 22:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Poljicak brings the longer hard-court sample, three completed matches from 28 September to 4 October, while Rehberg's 9-5 run and his three-set win on 4 October keep this Villena qualifying round open.

Poljicak to win is the lean, and at 2.6 that price offers something; Rehberg at 1.44 does not, with that shorter price resting on clay form against lower-ranked opponents.

Context

Rehberg is ranked 19 places above Poljicak but has barely been tested on hard courts in this window.
He won 6-7 6-3 6-3, so he can close out a hard-court contest, but a single match against a player ranked 841 is thin evidence for how he handles quicker indoor conditions, and five of his six listed recent wins came on clay against opponents ranked 372 to 893. Poljicak, by contrast, has three completed hard-court matches in the same window, which leaves Rehberg's surface form largely unmeasured.
- Rehberg's only hard-court match in the sample: 4 October 2026, a 2-1 win over Daniel Cukierman (ranked 841), 18-13 in games across 31 games.
- Sets were 6-7, 6-3, 6-3.
Poljicak's hard-court results have been front-loaded, with the opening set going his way more often than the second.
He beat Patrick Brady (710) 2-1 and Max Basing (244) 2-0, and lost 0-2 to Henrique Rocha (127), with no tiebreak in any of the three matches. A 2-1 first-set record alongside a 1-2 second-set record leaves the middle of the match as the least secure part of his hard-court form so far; Rehberg, in his one sampled hard-court match, did the opposite, dropping the first set 6-7 before winning in three.
- Poljicak's three completed hard-court matches, 28 September to 4 October 2026: set 1 record 2-1 (4.67 games won, 3.67 lost on average), set 2 record 1-2 (3.0 won, 5.33 lost).
- Second-set losses were 3-6 to Patrick Brady on 4 October and 0-6 to Henrique Rocha on 1 October; none of the three matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Poljicak has the longer and stronger recent hard-court sample, with a serve that wins him free points, while Rehberg's evidence on this surface is a single three-set win.
- Poljicak is 2-1 in his three completed hard-court matches in this window; Rehberg has one completed hard match in the sample.
- Poljicak's hard-court serve numbers: 75.5% first-serve points won and 6.3 aces per match.
- He beat Brady (710) 2-1 and Basing (244) 2-0, and lost 0-2 to Rocha (127).
- Rankings are close: Poljicak 293, Rehberg 274.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMili PoljicakEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in this sample have generally been shorter than first sets, helped by lopsided margins such as Poljicak's 0-6.
- Combined second-set games in the sample: 9, 9, 6 and 10 (average 8.5).
- Poljicak lost his second sets 3-6 and 0-6 on hard.
- Rehberg's one second set was 6-3.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent hard-court matches for these two have generally been settled in around 17 to 21 games, keeping the total under this line slightly more often.
- Combined hard-court average is 23.3 games across four matches.
- Poljicak's hard-court sets won rate is 57.1%, suggesting some one-sided sets.
- Two of the four matches were decided in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 25.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for these players have mostly been decided without going deep, and Poljicak's serve has helped him close sets early.
- Poljicak's hard-court first sets have totalled 10, 8 and 7 games.
- Two of four combined first sets finished under 9.5 games.
- Poljicak has won 2 of 3 first sets, often with a break margin.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poljicak has started sets better on this surface and gets more from his serve early, while Rehberg has a single first-set data point.
- Poljicak has won the first set in 2 of his 3 completed hard-court matches.
- Rehberg lost the only sampled first set 6-7.
- Both set1 samples are small (3 and 1 matches).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMili PoljicakEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poljicak is marginally favoured because of his overall hard-court level, but his second-set record on this surface is the weakest part of his recent results.
- Poljicak won the second set in only 1 of his 3 hard-court matches.
- He has lost set 2 by 3-6 and 0-6 in the other two.
- Rehberg won his only sampled second set 6-3.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMili PoljicakEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more common outcome in this small hard-court sample, though barely.
- Only 2 of the 4 combined hard-court matches went to three sets.
- Poljicak's hard-court matches averaged 2.33 sets; Rehberg's one match went the distance.
- Three of six recent matches across both players were straight-set results.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poljicak's recent hard-court sets have all been decided by breaks rather than tiebreaks, so a match without one is the more likely outcome.
- Poljicak's three hard-court matches had no tiebreaks.
- Rehberg's single hard match had one tiebreak.
- Poljicak has won 75.5% of first-serve points on hard, reducing break-point swings.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance57%

Max Hans Rehberg

10W 5L

6-7(8) 6-3 6-3#841Daniel Cukierman

6-0 6-1#372Andrey Chepelev

6-3 6-2#396Eric Vanshelboim

3-6 6-4 6-0#619Alexander Weis

6-3 6-2#858Giannicola Misasi

6-4 6-4#893Niccolo Catini

6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(5)#232Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 6-4#190Facundo Mena

6-3 6-4#285Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 6-1#229Kimmer Coppejans

5-3 ret.#772Jakub Nicod

6-1 5-7 7-5#574Saba Purtseladze

6-1 6-4#186Diego Dedura

4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(4)#377Daniel Elahi Galan

6-3 6-1#170Stefano Travaglia

Mili Poljicak

9W 6L

6-4 3-6 7-5#710Patrick Brady

6-2 6-0#127Henrique Rocha

6-1 6-4#244Max Basing

6-4 6-4#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 6-3#171Matej Dodig

6-4 6-3#288Max Schoenhaus

7-6(6) 6-1#690Sebastian Dominko

6-4 6-0—Vaal Urankar

6-1 6-4#69Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-5 6-4#193Juan Pablo Varillas

7-6(3) 6-7(4) 7-5#132Alexandre Muller

6-7(8) 6-3 6-4#121Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#320Enrico Dalla Valle

7-6(14) 6-3#889Jozef Kovalik

6-3 6-4—Enrico Baldisserri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMax Hans RehbergRehberg

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Mili PoljicakPoljicakMP

Max Hans Rehberg carries the stronger recent form — Mili Poljicak's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1565.6%+8.8pp56.8%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1569.4%+5.4pp74.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1550.6%+0.8pp49.8%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.6+3.96.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.2—2.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1543.6%+8.0pp35.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1550.0%+16.0pp34.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1558.8%+5.3pp53.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1553.0%+3.5pp49.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

65.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+8.8pp56.8%

69.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.4pp74.8%

50.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+0.8pp49.8%

2.6Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+3.96.5

2.2Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/15—2.0

Return · 1–0

43.6%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+8.0pp35.6%

Pressure · 2–0

50.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+16.0pp34.0%

58.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+5.3pp53.5%

Points · 1–0

53.0%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.5pp49.5%