SpainVillena - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Damir Dzumhur #103Bosnia & Herzegovina2Georgii Kravchenko #313Ukraine0

Sets 7-5 · 6-3Wed 7 Oct 2026, 10:35 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDamir Dzumhur · 210 places

Damir Dzumhur

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 23 on July 2, 2018. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #103
Peak ranking: #23 · 2018
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Georgii Kravchenko

Ukraine

Ukrainian right-hander born 28 July 2000. Public player pages list a career-best singles ranking of No. 371; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report was found in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #313
Peak ranking: #371
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 03:45 · Europe/Bucharest

A 210-place ranking gap points to Dzumhur beating Kravchenko, but Dzumhur has one win in four hard-court matches in his recent window and lost his last one 5-7 0-6 to a player ranked 356.

Kravchenko came through qualifying here and is match-sharp. Dzumhur remains the likelier winner, though by less than the rankings suggest; no priced selection was supplied, so nothing here is worth a bet.

Context

Kravchenko has already played two competitive hard-court matches in Villena, so he arrives with match sharpness on the exact court while Dzumhur comes in on a direct entry without a match here. The two qualifying wins mean four sets and added time on court inside 48 hours, and the Grenier match was settled by a first-set tiebreak rather than an easy passage. The fifth qualifying campaign of the year shows he rarely gains direct entry at this level, so the workload is familiar for him but still counts against a fresher opponent.
- Kravchenko beat Sergi Fita Juan 6-4 6-2 on 4 October and Hugo Grenier 7-6(5) 6-4 to qualify for the main draw.
- The first-round draw pairs Kravchenko with Damir Dzumhur.
- Kravchenko's 2026 qualifying record reaches five campaigns.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 03:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Both men list clay as their preferred surface, but Villena is played on hard courts, so the surface is the main variable relative to most of their recent completed matches. Dzumhur's best recent results came on clay in July, Kravchenko's maiden title came on clay in September, and both carry smaller hard-court samples into this event. The tournament is a Challenger 100 at the Ferrero academy, the top hard-court Challenger tier in Spain, which sets a defined field and stakes for the week.
- Villena is an ATP Challenger 100 played on hard court.
- The event is staged at the Ferrero Tennis Academy.
- Both players list clay as their preferred surface.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 03:43 · Europe/Bucharest
The Plovdiv title is Kravchenko's first at Challenger level and it came only a month before this match, which sets the level he has shown this autumn. It was achieved on clay, the surface both men list as preferred, whereas Villena is played on hard court. The result therefore shows current competitive form without carrying straight over to this surface, and the 6-0 6-2 scoreline came against a lower-ranked opponent rather than the No. 103 he meets here.
- Kravchenko won the Plovdiv Challenger, his first career Challenger title.
- He beat Yanaki Milev 6-0 6-2 in the final without losing serve.
- The final was a first Challenger singles final for both players.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 03:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Kravchenko's numbers read strongest on serve, with the return side of his game the less productive half of the split.
Kravchenko's serve has carried this stretch, but a 36.4% break-point conversion rate means he leaves chances behind, and against a higher-ranked opponent those can be the only ones that come. Dzumhur's serve figures for the same window are not available, so this is a one-sided picture of how the points may be decided. The 15-match sample spans clay and hard courts rather than this surface alone.
- Over 15 matches tracked through 5 October 2026, Kravchenko saved 52 of 88 break points (59.1%) and converted 47 of 129 of his own (36.4%).
- In the same 15-match sample he won 429 of 597 first-serve points (71.9%) and 52.5% of all points played (1115 of 2124).
- The 15-match window includes clay as well as hard courts, so it is not a hard-court-only sample.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dzumhur is 210 ranking places higher and remains the more proven player, which keeps him narrowly ahead despite a poor run on hard courts.
- ATP No. 103 vs No. 313
- Hard-court record in window: 1-3
- Most recent match: lost 5-7 0-6 to No. 356 Moez Echargui
- Hard-court set1 record: 1-2, set2 record: 1-2
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDamir DzumhurEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players cluster right around ten games, and a competitive opening should push past the line.
- Kravchenko set1 average total games on hard: 10.0
- Dzumhur set1 average total games on hard: 9.67
- Both set1 records are close to even
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kravchenko's hard-court matches average above the line and his serve metrics are competitive, pushing the total just over.
- Kravchenko hard-court average total games: 21.4
- Dzumhur hard-court average total games: 19.3
- Kravchenko hard-court games won: 52 of 107
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals for both players hover around the line, with Kravchenko's matches slightly under but Dzumhur's slightly over.
- Dzumhur set2 average total games on hard: 9.67
- Kravchenko set2 average total games on hard: 9.4
- Kravchenko set2 record on hard: 2-3
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has a strong second-set record, so the higher-ranked Dzumhur keeps a slight advantage.
- Dzumhur hard-court set2 record: 1-2
- Dzumhur set2 games average: 4.0 won, 5.67 lost
- Kravchenko hard-court set2 record: 2-3
- Kravchenko set2 games average: 4.4 won, 5.0 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonDamir DzumhurEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kravchenko has started sets slightly better recently, but Dzumhur's higher overall level still gives him a small edge in the opening set.
- Dzumhur hard-court set1 record: 1-2
- Dzumhur set1 games average: 4.67 won, 5.00 lost
- Kravchenko hard-court set1 record: 3-2
- Kravchenko set1 games average: 5.2 won, 4.8 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDamir DzumhurEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-sets results dominate both players' recent hard-court records, making a two-set finish the slightly more likely outcome.
- Dzumhur hard-court scorelines: 2-0 once, 0-2 twice
- Kravchenko hard-court scorelines: 2-0 twice, 0-2 twice, 1-2 once
- Combined straight-sets share in window: 6 of 8
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these recent hard-court matches were decided without a tiebreak, so no tiebreak is the more likely outcome.
- Two of eight combined hard-court matches in the window featured a tiebreak
- Dzumhur and Kravchenko hard-court matches: six of eight finished in straight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Damir Dzumhur

7W 8L

7-5 6-0#356Moez Echargui

6-4 4-6 6-1 6-1#34Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 7-6(4)#373Mathys Erhard

6-2 6-4#447Geoffrey Blancaneaux

5-0 ret.#89Hugo Gaston

6-2 5-7 6-2#44Daniel Merida Aguilar

3-6 6-4 6-3#84Alex Molcan

7-6(5) 6-7(4) 7-6(4)#38Matteo Arnaldi

7-6(2) 6-1#162Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 6-1#106Henrique Rocha

4-6 6-4 6-3#114Zsombor Piros

6-1 6-1#677Stefan Horia Haita

3-6 6-2 6-2 6-1#37Arthur Fery

6-3 6-4#68Vit Kopriva

6-3 6-3#82Zachary Svajda

Georgii Kravchenko

9W 6L

7-6(5) 6-4#269Hugo Grenier 6-4 6-2—Sergi Fita Juan

2-6 6-3 6-4#594Goncalo Marques

6-3 6-2#700Giorgio Tabacco

6-4 7-5#468Radu Albot

6-0 6-2#619Yanaki Milev

2-6 6-2 6-3#461Dusan Obradovic

6-3 6-3#616Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-0 7-6(3)#377Ognjen Milic

7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(10)#519Daniel Siniakov

5-7 7-5 6-3#819Dominik Recek

6-4 6-3#808Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg

6-4 6-4#224Alex Barrena

6-2 7-6(3)#724Stefano D'Agostino

6-2 6-3—Giammarco Gandolfi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DDDamir DzumhurDzumhur

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Georgii KravchenkoKravchenkoGK

Georgii Kravchenko carries the stronger recent form — Damir Dzumhur's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.4%+3.6pp60.8%

1st Serve Won59.3%+12.6pp71.9%

2nd Serve Won55.0%+2.3pp52.7%

Aces / Match1.5+1.12.6

Double Faults / Match1.7—1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.2%+1.1pp42.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.1%+5.7pp36.4%

Break Pts Saved48.6%+10.5pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.2%+3.3pp52.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

64.4%1st Serve In+3.6pp60.8%

59.3%1st Serve Won+12.6pp71.9%

55.0%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp52.7%

1.5Aces / Match+1.12.6

1.7Double Faults / Match—1.9

Return · 0–1

41.2%Return Pts Won+1.1pp42.3%

Pressure · 1–1

42.1%Break Pts Converted+5.7pp36.4%

48.6%Break Pts Saved+10.5pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won+3.3pp52.5%