Antofagasta - ChileFinished

Predictions graded

Franco Roncadelli #2370Tomas Barrios Vera #1472

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Tue 6 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–278%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTomas Barrios Vera · 90 places

Franco Roncadelli

Uruguayan left-hander born 6 February 2000. Public ranking records place his career-best singles ranking at No. 225 in May 2026; no verified current injury or withdrawal report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #237
Peak ranking: #225 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Tomas Barrios Vera

Chilean right-hander, 191 cm, born 10 December 1997. Reliable profile search evidence confirms his current age and playing style; no adequately sourced preferred-surface or career-high detail was returned.

Current ranking: #147
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 17:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Barrios Vera is higher-ranked, has served better on clay and won three of his last four clay matches in Antofagasta, so he should get past Roncadelli - though his three-set loss here on 3 October shows the gap is not wide.

No quoted price offers anything: 1.36 to win, 1.44 for the opening set and 1.9 for a 2-0 win all ask more than the record justifies, and Roncadelli's 2.9 to win and 2.6 for the first set are no better.

Context

Roncadelli, ranked 259, has been on clay from late June to the end of September, so the sample is recent and reasonably large for the level.
That pattern matters in a best-of-three first round: if Barrios Vera's serve holds as it has on clay, the match can be settled without a third set. The counterweight is that Roncadelli won three of the four clay matches that did go the distance, so a tight opening set is not necessarily bad news for him.
- Roncadelli clay setEvidence: 13 completed matches, 29 June to 30 September 2026
- Scorelines: six 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss, three 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins
- Average total games 21.7 and average 2.31 sets per match
- Four of the 13 went to a deciding set, and Roncadelli won three of those four
The first set is Barrios Vera's strongest phase on this surface, and the absence of first-set tiebreaks points to leads built on breaks rather than shootouts. The second-set numbers show that early advantage does not always carry, which is the difference between him taking the opening set and him closing the match in straight sets.
- Barrios Vera clay setEvidence: seven completed matches, 7 July to 3 October 2026
- Set 1: five wins, two losses, 5.43 games won against 3.43 lost, no tiebreaks
- Set 2: three wins, four losses, 4.86 games won against 4.71 lost
- Only one of his seven clay matches contained a tiebreak
One match is not a pattern, but it shows Roncadelli can build a big lead inside a set and still lose the match. That is a useful counterpoint when weighing whether a straight-sets win is the natural outcome for the favourite in this first round.
- Roncadelli clay match on 24 September 2026 against Pedro Boscardin Dias, ranked 262: lost 6-0, 6-7, 3-6
- Total games in that match: 15 won to 13 lost
- Result: L, one set won and two lost, not a retirement

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tomas Barrios Vera

1.36fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 73.5%

−7.5ppshort

Barrios Vera is the higher-ranked player, is serving better on this surface and has won three of his last four clay matches at this venue.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Tomas Barrios Vera

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

−7.4ppshort

Barrios Vera has started strongly on clay, winning the opening set in five of seven matches and averaging a two-game margin.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Tomas Barrios Vera 2-0

1.90fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 52.6%

−10.6ppshort

Barrios Vera has won sets comfortably on this clay and Roncadelli has lost in straight sets more often than not.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Barrios Vera is the higher-ranked player, is serving better on this surface and has won three of his last four clay matches at this venue.
- Barrios Vera ranked 135 vs Roncadelli 259
- Clay serve points won: Barrios Vera 62.2% first serve, 57.5% second serve vs Roncadelli 59.2% and 54.4%
- Barrios Vera won three of four clay matches in Antofagasta this week, including two straight-set wins
- Break points saved on clay: Barrios Vera 67.2% vs Roncadelli 55.9%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTomas Barrios VeraEstimated chance66%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Barrios Vera's opening sets on clay have averaged under nine games, often settled by a single break.
- Barrios Vera clay set 1 average total: 8.86 games
- Roncadelli clay set 1 average total: 9.23 games
- Barrios Vera clay set 1 games won average 5.43
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches sit close to this line, with Barrios Vera's recent Antofagasta matches regularly passing 22 games.
- Barrios Vera clay average match total 23.9 games
- Roncadelli clay average match total 21.7 games
- Roncadelli won 50% of clay games in tracked matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets sit on the line, with Barrios Vera's set-two games won average under five.
- Barrios Vera clay set 2 average total: 9.57 games
- Roncadelli clay set 2 average total: 9.46 games
- Barrios Vera clay set 2 games won average 4.86
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Barrios Vera has started strongly on clay, winning the opening set in five of seven matches and averaging a two-game margin.
- Barrios Vera clay set 1 record: 5 wins, 2 losses
- Barrios Vera clay set 1 games: 5.43 won vs 3.43 lost
- Roncadelli clay set 1 record: 5 wins, 8 losses
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTomas Barrios VeraEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Barrios Vera has the better second-set record on clay and the stronger serve numbers to hold the advantage.
- Barrios Vera clay set 2 record: 3 wins, 4 losses
- Roncadelli clay set 2 record: 5 wins, 8 losses
- Barrios Vera clay sets won 50% overall
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTomas Barrios VeraEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roncadelli's clay matches have mostly ended in two sets, and a clear favourite often closes in straight sets.
- Roncadelli clay: 9 of 13 matches finished in straight sets
- Roncadelli scorelines include 6 two-set losses
- Barrios Vera clay average 2.57 sets per match
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' clay sets have been settled without reaching 6-6.
- Barrios Vera: 1 of 7 clay matches contained a tiebreak
- Roncadelli: 4 of 13 clay matches contained a tiebreak
- Barrios Vera clay set 1 average 8.86 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roncadelli barely serves aces and Barrios Vera averages under two per clay match.
- Barrios Vera clay aces: 1.9 per match
- Roncadelli clay aces: 0.2 per match
- Roncadelli has served 3 aces in 13 clay matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined clay double faults average just over two per match, below the line.
- Barrios Vera clay double faults: 1.6 per match
- Roncadelli clay double faults: 0.7 per match
- Barrios Vera first serve in on clay 66.6%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Previous match context available

Franco Roncadelli

6W 9L

7-6(6) 6-2#239Guido Ivan Justo

0-6 7-6(5) 6-3#262Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-2 6-0#597Bruno Fernandez

6-4 6-3#192Elias Ymer

7-5 7-5#349Norbert Gombos

6-3 6-2#772Jakub Nicod

6-3 6-3#242Henri Squire

7-5 7-6(5)#781Oskari Paldanius

6-1 6-3#138Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 4-6 7-6(7)#213Maxim Mrva

2-6 6-2 6-1#210Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 6-3#277Michele Ribecai

6-3 6-4#241Andrej Nedic

4-6 6-2 6-4#323Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-2#110Dane Sweeny

Tomas Barrios Vera

7W 8L

4-6 6-4 6-3#239Guido Ivan Justo 6-1 3-6 6-3#270Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-2 6-3#276Juan Bautista Torres

6-1 6-1#538Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-3 6-4 6-2#27Alexander Blockx

6-4 6-3#257Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-1#291Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-2 5-7 6-0#159Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

7-6(5) 6-2#260Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

7-6(4) 6-2#112Aleksandar Vukic

6-4 4-6 6-1#363Dylan Dietrich

6-4 6-4#418Niels Visker

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#152Ilia Simakin

4-6 6-4 7-6(5) 0-6 6-2#110Dane Sweeny

6-4 3-6 6-1#451Paul Jubb

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FRFranco RoncadelliRoncadelli

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Tomas Barrios VeraVeraTV

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In74.7%+9.2pp65.5%

1st Serve Won59.1%+6.7pp65.8%

2nd Serve Won54.5%—55.0%

Aces / Match0.4+2.12.5

Double Faults / Match0.61.3 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.3%+1.6pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.1%+7.6pp39.5%

Break Pts Saved55.2%+12.0pp67.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.6%+1.1pp50.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

74.7%1st Serve In+9.2pp65.5%

59.1%1st Serve Won+6.7pp65.8%

54.5%2nd Serve Won—55.0%

0.4Aces / Match+2.12.5

0.6Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

41.3%Return Pts Won+1.6pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

47.1%Break Pts Converted+7.6pp39.5%

55.2%Break Pts Saved+12.0pp67.2%

Points · 0–1

49.6%Total Pts Won+1.1pp50.7%