ItalyPalermo - ItalyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Federico Arnaboldi #519Italy0Kalin Ivanovski #749North Macedonia2

Sets 4-6 · 6-7Mon 5 Oct 2026, 09:20 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions6–367%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFederico Arnaboldi · 230 places

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

The supplied structured profile lists Arnaboldi at No. 519 and as a right-handed player with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #519
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Kalin Ivanovski

North Macedonia

Ivanovski, 196 cm, is the right-hander with a two-handed backhand in this matchup and is ranked No. 749. He entered this event off a run of clay matches, including a retirement in his most recent outing. Limited reliable public profile information beyond his current ranking and recent clay results was found.

Current ranking: #749
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Ivanovski sits 273 ranking places below Arnaboldi but has won eleven of thirteen tracked clay matches to Arnaboldi's 5-7.

The lower-ranked player is the likely winner, and three quoted prices back it: Ivanovski to win the match at 2.05, to be ahead after the first set at 2.00, and to win 2-0 at 3.25. Arnaboldi's tougher recent opposition is the counterweight.

Context

Ivanovski, ranked 749, has been the faster starter in this clay window, while Arnaboldi is 5-7 in first sets across his own twelve-match sample.
A 10-2 first-set record gives Ivanovski the better chance of taking the opening set of this match. Four of those twelve first sets went to a tiebreak, so the set has often been close rather than one-sided. Arnaboldi's first-set record in the same clay period is a losing one, which is where the difference between the two windows shows up most sharply.
- Ivanovski won 10 of 12 first sets in completed clay matches tracked from 25 June to 4 October 2026.
- In those opening sets he averaged 6.08 games won and 4.67 games lost.
- Four of the twelve matches in the sample featured a first-set tiebreak.
Arnaboldi, the higher-ranked player at 476, has been beaten without taking a set five times in that twelve-match sample and took only four of twelve second sets.
Several of those heavy defeats came against better-ranked clay opponents, including Moeller (235) and Giunta (388), so the level of opposition explains part of the record. Even so, losing five of twelve clay matches in straight sets is the form line Ivanovski is facing. Arnaboldi's second-set record of 4-8 in the same window is the weakest part of it.
- Arnaboldi's 12-match clay set evidence runs from 5 August to 4 October 2026 and shows a 5-7 match record.
- Five of his seven defeats in that window were 0-2, with two more losses at 1-2.
- He won four of twelve second sets across the same sample.
A 09:00 start makes this the opening match of the day on Center Court, so the two players take the primary court first, before a long gap to the following match at 16:00. The listing places the fixture in the second round at Palermo, the stage both players reached with three-set wins in their opening matches . That early, first-on-court slot is the concrete scheduling frame around this fixture and shapes when the day's play begins at the venue.
- The Palermo second-round match between Arnaboldi and Ivanovski is scheduled on Center Court (1) at 09:00, the day's opening slot, followed by Cerny-Sakellaridis at 16:00 and Wessels-Martin at 18:00.
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 22:19 · Europe/BucharestTennisTempleen.tennistemple.com · 4 Oct 2026
It is Arnaboldi's most recent completed match and came the day before this fixture, against an opponent ranked below him at 616.
The scoreline shows Arnaboldi can turn a match around after losing the first set, which matters against an opponent who has started strongly on clay all window. The counterweight is that the opponent was ranked 616 and Arnaboldi still conceded the opening set. It is one match, not a pattern that overrides the wider 5-7 clay record.
- On 4 October 2026 Arnaboldi beat Andrea De Marchi, ranked 616, 4-6 6-1 6-3.
- The set scores show Arnaboldi losing the opener before winning the next two sets 6-1 and 6-3.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
The lower-ranked player arrives with far the better clay results and a strong first-set habit of taking the lead.
- Ivanovski 11-2 in tracked clay matches; Arnaboldi 5-7 over the same surface window
- Ivanovski set1 record 10-2 versus Arnaboldi 5-7
- Ivanovski ranked 749, Arnaboldi 476
- Ivanovski clay scorelines: six 2-0 wins, five 2-1 wins, one 0-2 loss
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKalin IvanovskiEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on clay for these two generally settle before ten games, with tiebreaks rare in this set.
- Arnaboldi set2 total games average 8.92
- Ivanovski set2 total games average 9.75
- Only one tiebreak in twelve second sets for each player
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ivanovski's clay matches regularly run long, and Arnaboldi's three-setters add enough games to push past this line.
- Ivanovski clay matches average 24.6 games
- Arnaboldi clay matches average 22.5 games
- Ivanovski's three-setters ran to 32, 33, 31 and 30 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ivanovski's first sets routinely reach double figures, and his tiebreak habit points to a tight opening set.
- Ivanovski set1 total games average 10.75
- Arnaboldi set1 total games average 9.33
- Ivanovski had four first-set tiebreaks in twelve clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Ivanovski has started strongly on clay all window while Arnaboldi has a losing first-set record.
- Ivanovski 10-2 in first sets on clay
- Arnaboldi 5-7 in first sets on clay
- Ivanovski set1 games: 6.08 won, 4.67 lost
- Four of Ivanovski's twelve clay matches had a first-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKalin IvanovskiEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ivanovski's second-set record is still positive, whereas Arnaboldi has lost eight of twelve second sets.
- Ivanovski 7-5 in second sets on clay
- Arnaboldi 4-8 in second sets on clay
- Ivanovski set2 games: 4.92 won, 4.83 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonKalin IvanovskiEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players finish a similar share of matches in straight sets, and Ivanovski does so slightly more often in his wins.
- Ivanovski scorelines: six 2-0, five 2-1, one 0-2
- Arnaboldi scorelines: two 2-0, three 2-1, five 0-2, two 1-2
- Both players average 2.42 sets per match
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' clay matches finish without a tiebreak, especially in the second set.
- Arnaboldi had three tiebreak matches in twelve
- Ivanovski had four tiebreak matches in twelve
- Only one second-set tiebreak each in twelve clay matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance64%

Previous match context available

Federico Arnaboldi

7W 8L

4-6 6-1 6-3#616Andrea De Marchi

6-3 6-1#388Massimo Giunta

6-4 4-2 ret.#565Svyatoslav Gulin

2-6 6-3 6-3#578Federico Iannaccone

6-4 6-4#235Marvin Moeller

6-1 7-6(3)#326Florian Broska

6-1 6-1#746Maximilian Marterer

5-7 7-5 6-1#193Juan Pablo Varillas

6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#431Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-3—Edoardo Cherie Ligniere

6-3 6-1#193Juan Pablo Varillas

2-4 ret.#324Federico Bondioli

7-6(7) ret.#900Stefano Reitano

3-6 6-1 7-6(0)—Gabriele Crivellaro

7-5 6-4—Leonardo Primucci

Kalin Ivanovski

11W 4L

6-4 5-7 6-4#531Giuseppe La Vela

7-5 1-2 ret.—Claus Piening

6-4 6-4—Patrik Homola

6-1 4-6 10-6#874Ryo Tabata

6-4 1-0 ret.#507Bor Artnak

6-7(7) 6-2 6-4—Aleksander Chayka

6-1 0-6 6-2#501Vladyslav Orlov

6-4 2-6 7-5#611Yanaki Milev

7-6(5) 7-6(3)#619Alexander Weis

6-4 6-3—Liam Delicata

6-4 6-2#372Andrey Chepelev

6-4 3-6 6-3—Bozo Barun

6-4 6-4#439Khumoun Sultanov

7-6(4) 7-5#571Javier Barranco Cosano

7-6(8) 7-5#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFederico ArnaboldiArnaboldi

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Kalin IvanovskiIvanovskiKI

Kalin Ivanovski carries the stronger recent form — Federico Arnaboldi's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1558.3%—58.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.6%+11.0pp77.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1543.1%+7.4pp50.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.2+1.65.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.20.6 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.8%+0.8pp38.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1542.9%+5.4pp37.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1559.2%+7.9pp67.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1548.2%+3.7pp51.9%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

58.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15—58.0%

66.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+11.0pp77.6%

43.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.4pp50.5%

4.2Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.65.8

3.2Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.6 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

38.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp38.0%

Pressure · 1–1

42.9%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.4pp37.5%

59.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+7.9pp67.1%

Points · 0–1

48.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.7pp51.9%

Federico Arnaboldi

Kalin Ivanovski

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kalin Ivanovski

Kalin Ivanovski

Kalin Ivanovski 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Federico Arnaboldi

Kalin Ivanovski

Stat Battle