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Predictions graded

Federico Arnaboldi #519Italy2Andrea De Marchi #687Italy1

Sets 4-6 · 6-1 · 6-3Sun 4 Oct 2026, 10:25 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions5–838%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFederico Arnaboldi · 168 places

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

The supplied structured profile lists Arnaboldi at No. 519 and as a right-handed player with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #519
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Andrea De Marchi

Italy

De Marchi, 19, is a clay-raised player whose preferred surface is clay. A right-shoulder issue caused a months-long absence during 2025, but it was described as resolved by March 2026.

Current ranking: #687
Peak ranking: #687 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Andrea De Marchi brings the clay form — 8-4 in his last 12 completed clay matches and five wins in his last six — against an Arnaboldi who has lost four of six, though Arnaboldi is ranked 140 places higher.

De Marchi to win at 7, De Marchi with a 4.5-game start at 5.25 and under 24.5 games at 4.75 are the three reviewed prices that pay more than the recent record implies. Arnaboldi at 1.07 does not.

Context

Arnaboldi has played all six of his most recent completed matches on clay.
That is the widest of the four defeats in his last six clay matches and the clearest measure of how far his level can drop inside a single match. It argues against expecting him to run away with this one, though a single result says nothing about how he will play on this occasion.
- 2026-09-13: lost 0-2 (1-6, 1-6; 2-12 in games) to Maximilian Marterer, ranked 746, in a completed clay match.
Eight of those 11 matches ended in two sets, which fits the case for a short match here, and the five straight-set wins show he can close opponents out without a decider. The three 0-2 defeats are the counterweight: when a match has gone against him in this window it has tended to go quickly.
- 2 August to 23 September 2026, 11 completed clay matches (three retirements excluded), averaging 2.27 sets and 20.4 games per match.
- Scorelines in that sample: five 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss, three 0-2 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 7.00
The read
De Marchi has the better recent clay results and fewer heavy defeats, while Arnaboldi has been beaten comfortably in four of his last six matches.
- De Marchi is 8-4 in his last 12 completed clay matches; Arnaboldi is 5-7 in his 12.
- De Marchi has won five of his last six clay matches; Arnaboldi has lost four of his last six.
- Both samples are clay best-of-three only, 11-12 matches each, and there is no head-to-head record.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrea De MarchiEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
De Marchi needs only to keep the match within seven games, and Arnaboldi's recent wins have not been that wide.
- De Marchi's worst recent margin is -3 games.
- Arnaboldi's heaviest recent win is +6 games.
- Arnaboldi has been beaten by 8 and 10 games twice in his last six matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndrea De Marchi +7.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
De Marchi would need to be beaten by seven games or more to fail, a margin Arnaboldi has not produced recently.
- De Marchi has lost only one of his last six clay matches, by three games.
- Arnaboldi has lost by eight and ten games twice in his last six.
- De Marchi's average margin per match in the sample is +4.8 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndrea De Marchi +6.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
De Marchi wins outright in five of his last six, so he only needs to avoid a heavy defeat to cover six games.
- De Marchi's recent margins are +9, +6, -3, +4, +7 and +6 games.
- His only defeat in the last six matches was by three games.
- Arnaboldi has lost by 8, 10 and 5 games in his last six matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAndrea De Marchi +5.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 5.25
The read
De Marchi covers unless he loses by five games or more, and his recent results rarely produce such defeats.
- De Marchi's last six clay matches produced +9, +6, -3, +4, +7 and +6 game margins.
- Arnaboldi's last six produced -8, +2, -4, +6, -10 and -5.
- De Marchi wins by an average of 4.8 games per match in this sample; Arnaboldi loses by 3.2.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAndrea De Marchi +4.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 4.75
The read
Recent match totals sit comfortably below the line, and most of these matches were decided in straight sets.
- Arnaboldi's average clay match total is 21.9 games; De Marchi's is 20.4.
- Their last six clay matches each totalled between 14 and 31 games.
- The combined mean of the 12 most recent matches is about 22 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 24.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in these samples average just over nine games, with several one-sided scorelines.
- Arnaboldi's second sets average 8.9 total games; De Marchi's average 9.4.
- Arnaboldi has lost second sets by 1-6 twice in his last six matches.
- Five of the recent twelve combined second sets finished under 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets average just under ten games, with tiebreaks rare in both players' samples.
- Arnaboldi's opening sets average 9.5 total games; De Marchi's average 9.2.
- Arnaboldi has had no opening-set tiebreak in 12 matches; De Marchi one in 11.
- Six of the last 12 combined opening sets reached at least 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches have usually been settled in two sets, with De Marchi winning five of six without needing a decider.
- 16 of the 23 combined clay matches in these samples finished in straight sets.
- De Marchi: eight straight-set results in 11 matches.
- Arnaboldi: eight straight-set results in 12 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is De Marchi's strongest part of the match, while Arnaboldi has lost eight of his 12 second sets.
- De Marchi has won seven of 11 second sets on clay; Arnaboldi four of 12.
- De Marchi averages 5.09 games won and 4.27 lost in set two.
- Arnaboldi averages 3.75 won and 5.17 lost in set two.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAndrea De MarchiEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets are close to level, but De Marchi's slightly better set-one games record and overall form give him a narrow edge.
- De Marchi has won six of 11 opening sets on clay; Arnaboldi six of 12.
- De Marchi averages 4.73 games won and 4.45 lost in set one.
- Arnaboldi averages 4.67 won and 4.83 lost in set one.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrea De MarchiEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' clay matches, and set totals have usually stayed short of 6-6.
- Arnaboldi had three tiebreak matches in 12 completed clay matches; De Marchi two in 11.
- The combined tiebreak rate is five of 23 matches.
- Both players' set totals average below ten games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%

Federico Arnaboldi

7W 8L

6-3 6-1#388Massimo Giunta

6-4 4-2 ret.#565Svyatoslav Gulin

2-6 6-3 6-3#578Federico Iannaccone

6-4 6-4#235Marvin Moeller

6-1 7-6(3)#326Florian Broska

6-1 6-1#746Maximilian Marterer

5-7 7-5 6-1#193Juan Pablo Varillas

6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#431Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-3—Edoardo Cherie Ligniere

6-3 6-1#193Juan Pablo Varillas

2-4 ret.#324Federico Bondioli

7-6(7) ret.#900Stefano Reitano

3-6 6-1 7-6(0)—Gabriele Crivellaro

7-5 6-4—Leonardo Primucci

7-5 6-1—Niccolo Ciavarella

Andrea De Marchi

10W 5L

2-1 ret.#385Laurent Lokoli

6-7(5) 6-1 6-1—Gabriele Crivellaro

4-6 6-4 6-0—Sebastiano Cocola

2-6 7-5 6-1#372Andrey Chepelev

7-5 6-4#433Garrett Johns

6-4 6-1#898Marcello Serafini

6-1 7-6(2)#579Kirill Kivattsev

6-3 7-5#349Norbert Gombos

6-1 6-1#398Samuele Pieri

7-6(3) 5-0 ret.—Aljaz Jeran

6-2 6-2—Mattias Pisanu

2-6 6-4 11-9#899Blu Baker

6-1 6-2—Samuele Seghetti

7-5 2-1 ret.#330Francesco Forti

6-4 6-3—Veljko Krstic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFederico ArnaboldiArnaboldi

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Andrea De MarchiMarchiAM

Andrea De Marchi carries the stronger recent form — Federico Arnaboldi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.6%+6.2pp64.8%

1st Serve Won66.0%+6.3pp59.7%

2nd Serve Won44.7%+8.1pp52.8%

Aces / Match3.9+3.10.8

Double Faults / Match2.90.8 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.8%+7.6pp46.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.1%+16.0pp57.1%

Break Pts Saved59.2%+10.3pp48.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.4%+3.4pp51.8%

Serve · 2–3

58.6%1st Serve In+6.2pp64.8%

66.0%1st Serve Won+6.3pp59.7%

44.7%2nd Serve Won+8.1pp52.8%

3.9Aces / Match+3.10.8

2.9Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

38.8%Return Pts Won+7.6pp46.4%

Pressure · 1–1

41.1%Break Pts Converted+16.0pp57.1%

59.2%Break Pts Saved+10.3pp48.9%

Points · 0–1

48.4%Total Pts Won+3.4pp51.8%

Federico Arnaboldi

Andrea De Marchi

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Andrea De Marchi +4.5

Under 24.5

Andrea De Marchi

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 7 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Federico Arnaboldi

Andrea De Marchi

Stat Battle