United StatesColumbus - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Mees Rottgering #416Netherlands0Andres Andrade #251Ecuador2

Sets 3-6 · 6-7Fri 2 Oct 2026, 15:13 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndres Andrade · 165 places

Mees Rottgering

Netherlands

Rottgering reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 411 in July 2026 and remains close to that mark. No reliable declared preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #416
Peak ranking: #411 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Andres Andrade

Ecuador

A 27-year-old Ecuadorian right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 210 on 2026-05-18 and is currently ranked No. 251.

Current ranking: #251
Peak ranking: #210 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 03:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Both men have reached the Columbus quarter-final without dropping a set: fifth seed Andres Andrade, No. 206, and 19-year-old Mees Rottgering, No.

335. Rottgering's slightly stronger serve and point numbers, plus his win over third seed Braden Shick, make him the marginal pick, and the clearest lean is that the match ends in straight sets. No price was included in this review, so there is nothing to back at odds.

Context

Rottgering, 19 and ranked No. 335, has reached the last eight without dropping a set, beating third seed Braden Shick 6-1 6-4 and Edward Winter 7-5 6-3. Shick, at No. 207, was the highest-ranked opponent Rottgering has faced in Columbus, so the straight-sets win over a seed is the result carrying his run into this quarter-final. The counterweight is Andrade, who at No. 206 is ranked almost identically to Shick but is seeded fifth and has also won both his matches in straight sets.
- Braden Shick was seeded third in the Columbus draw and ranked No. 207.
- Rottgering won 6-1 6-4 on 2026-09-30 and 7-5 6-3 on 2026-09-28.
- Rottgering is 19, left-handed and ranked No. 335.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:37 · Europe/Bucharest
Rottgering is 19, ranked No. 335, and his recent hard-court results have been the shortest of the two players in this quarter-final.
Fourteen of those 15 matches ended without a deciding set, nine of them 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses, with one 2-1 win in the sample. Only one match included a tiebreak, so his results have rarely hinged on a couple of closing points. That is the pattern this quarter-final will test, because Andrade's own sample runs considerably longer at 23.3 games and 2.4 sets per match.
- Rottgering played 15 completed hard-court matches between 2026-07-22 and 2026-09-30.
- Fourteen of the 15 ended in straight sets (nine 2-0 wins, five 0-2 losses) and one was a 2-1 win.
- He averaged 19.3 games per match, and only one of the 15 matches contained a tiebreak.
Andrade, the fifth seed at No. 206, has been the stronger starter of the two players in this quarter-final.
Winning the opening set in roughly three of every four matches is the most reliable part of his record, and it puts pressure on a player whose own matches have tended to be short and decided quickly. None of those 15 first sets reached a tiebreak, so the advantage has been built in ordinary games rather than on a handful of points. If Rottgering starts slowly, this is the phase where Andrade has been most consistent.
- Andrade's 15 completed hard-court matches span 2026-08-13 to 2026-09-30.
- He won the first set in 11 of those 15 matches, losing four.
- He averaged 5.27 first-set games to 4.07, with no first-set tiebreaks in the sample.
Andrade's hard-court sample from 13 August to 30 September 2026 is the longer-running of the two players' records.
His 15 matches averaged 23.3 games and 2.4 sets, with three 2-1 wins and three 1-2 losses among the six that went the distance. Four matches in the sample included a tiebreak. That length is the counterweight to a quick straight-sets read of this quarter-final, since Rottgering has finished 14 of his 15 hard-court matches without a decider.
- Andrade's 15 completed hard-court matches span 2026-08-13 to 2026-09-30.
- Six of the 15 went to a deciding set (three 2-1 wins, three 1-2 losses).
- Four of the 15 matches included a tiebreak, and his matches averaged 23.3 games and 2.4 sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rottgering's serve and point numbers are slightly better and his recent wins have come against stronger opposition than Andrade's.
- 10-5 in his last 15 hard-court matches, the same record as Andrade
- Won 74.0% of first-serve points and 53.2% of total points, both above Andrade's figures
- Beat No. 207 Braden Shick 6-1 6-4 to reach this quarter-final
- Saved 66.3% of break points across those 15 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMees RottgeringEstimated chance52%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andrade's second sets run longer and include three tiebreaks, pushing the combined average above the line.
- Andrade averages 10.07 second-set games with 3 second-set tiebreaks
- Rottgering averages 9.07 second-set games with 1 tiebreak
- Combined second-set average is 9.57 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in both samples sit just below ten games on average.
- Rottgering averages 9.53 first-set games; Andrade 9.33
- No first-set tiebreaks in either sample
- Both average about 4.1 first-set games lost
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rottgering's matches have been short, and the two players' combined match length sits right around this line.
- Rottgering's matches average 19.3 games; Andrade's average 23.3
- Average sets played are 2.07 for Rottgering and 2.40 for Andrade
- Only 1 of Rottgering's 15 matches went to a third set
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rottgering almost never plays a third set, and Andrade's straight-set share still keeps a decider in the minority.
- 14 of Rottgering's 15 hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Andrade has gone to a deciding set in 6 of 15
- Both players won in straight sets in both Columbus matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andrade has the stronger first-set record of the two, winning almost three-quarters of them.
- Won the opening set in 11 of 15 hard-court matches
- Averages 5.27 games to 4.07 in first sets
- No first-set tiebreaks in his sample
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndres AndradeEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-set records are level at 9-6, and Rottgering's overall match numbers are slightly stronger.
- Won the second set in 9 of 15 hard-court matches
- Averages 4.93 games to 4.13 in second sets
- Better total-points-won rate (53.2% vs 52.5%)
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMees RottgeringEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' recent matches despite solid serving.
- Rottgering has had 1 tiebreak in his last 15 matches
- Andrade has had 4 in his last 15
- Neither player has had a first-set tiebreak in the sample
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both average just over three aces, leaving the combined figure a shade below the line.
- Both players average 3.1 aces per match
- Combined rate is about 6.2 aces per match
- 14 of Rottgering's 15 matches finished in straight sets
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined double-fault rate sits just above the line.
- Rottgering averages 3.0 double faults per match; Andrade 3.6
- Combined average is about 6.6 per match
- Both win only about 51-52% of second-serve points
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Mees Rottgering

10W 5L

6-1 6-4#207Braden Shick 7-5 6-3#343Edward Winter 6-3 6-3#139Nishesh Basavareddy

6-3 6-3#36Arthur Fery

6-2 7-6(1)#75Tomas Machac

7-5 2-6 6-4#89Jan Choinski

6-4 6-1#284Hugo Grenier

6-1 6-0#600Hunter Heck

7-5 6-4#125Lloyd Harris

7-5 6-3#224Henry Searle

6-3 6-3#433Garrett Johns

6-2 6-3—Benjamin Kittay

7-5 6-4#346Abedallah Shelbayh

6-1 6-3#599Bryce Nakashima

6-3 6-3#295Yu Hsiou Hsu

Andres Andrade

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(7)#448Luca Staeheli 6-4 6-2#480Trevor Svajda 6-3 6-2#139Nishesh Basavareddy 3-6 6-3 7-5#163Darwin Blanch 4-6 7-5 6-3#346Abedallah Shelbayh

4-6 6-4 6-1#98Toby Samuel

6-3 7-6(7)#356Aidan Mayo

6-3 3-6 6-4#260Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 6-3#680Max Purcell

6-4 6-2#365Ivan Marrero Curbelo

6-4 7-6(5)#343Edward Winter

3-6 6-3 6-2#159Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 6-3#215Liam Draxl

4-6 7-5 7-6(2)#197Jack Pinnington Jones

6-3 6-3#169Gauthier Onclin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMees RottgeringRottgering

Last 15

3–2

9 core stats · 4 even

Andres AndradeAndradeAA

Mees Rottgering carries the stronger recent form — Andres Andrade's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.3%—57.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1574.0%+1.8pp72.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.2%+1.0pp52.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.1—3.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.00.6 fewer3.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1542.4%—42.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1544.6%+1.3pp45.9%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1566.3%+8.5pp57.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.2%—52.5%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

57.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15—57.5%

74.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.8pp72.2%

51.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp52.2%

3.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15—3.1

3.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.6 fewer3.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

42.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—42.1%

Pressure · 1–1

44.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp45.9%

66.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+8.5pp57.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—52.5%