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Predictions graded

Joao Eduardo Schiessl #512Brazil0Luis Queiroz Miguel #850Brazil2

Sets 6-7 · 5-7Thu 1 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoao Eduardo Schiessl · 338 places

Joao Eduardo Schiessl

Brazil

Brazilian left-hander ranked No. 512 who entered the Curitiba main draw on a wildcard. He was a semifinalist at this event in 2025 and spent the weeks before it at ITF M15 level in Brazil.

Current ranking: #512
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Luis Queiroz Miguel

Brazil

Brazilian player Luís Augusto Queiroz Miguel was born on 26 February 2009 and is listed as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand. Reliable current public data did not establish a career-high singles ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #850
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Two Brazilians meet in the Curitiba second round with a quarter-final place on the line and no previous meeting to go on.

Queiroz Miguel's better clay numbers make him the marginal favourite to advance, but that case rests on a clay sample that ended in mid-May and a first-round win that finished with Mena retiring. Queiroz Miguel at 1.22 asks too much; Schiessl at 3.8 is the one price here that offers value.

Context

Mena entered as the sixth seed and is ranked near No. 190, roughly 470 places above the 17-year-old Queiroz Miguel, so taking the opening set 6:2 is the most substantial competitive evidence behind his run to the round of 16. The result is incomplete, though: Mena stopped two games into the second set, so the match never tested whether Queiroz Miguel could hold that level across a full contest against a top-200 opponent. That makes the win a genuine step up in opposition while leaving the durability of the performance unresolved.
- Mena retired two games into the second set after Queiroz Miguel had won the opening set 6:2.
- Mena entered the tournament as the sixth seed and is ranked close to No. 190.
- Queiroz Miguel gave a post-match interview at the event after the win.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:18 · Europe/Bucharest24scoreen.24score.com · 30 Sep 2026
Queiroz Miguel, No. 661, went 6-3 on clay in that window and won seven of his nine first sets, but the sample is nearly five months old at the time of this match.
His clay numbers describe his spring level rather than his current one, which is why his first-round win here matters more for this matchup: he was 6-2 up and 2-1 ahead in the second set when Mena retired, so that performance was never completed.
- Queiroz Miguel's clay set evidence covers nine completed matches between 14 April and 15 May 2026, with one retirement excluded from the sample.
- His scorelines in that sample were 2-0 in five matches, 0-2 in two, 2-1 in one and 1-2 in one.
- Three of those nine matches contained a tiebreak.
The round of 16 is an all-Brazilian meeting on the central court, and the winner moves into the quarter-finals of the Challenger 75. It is the first time the two have played each other, so neither arrives with a head-to-head template from a previous match. The pairing also guarantees a Brazilian quarter-finalist from this section of the draw, which is what gives the fixture a clear stake beyond a routine advance.
- The fixture is the round of 16 at the Challenger 75 in Curitiba, scheduled on the central court on Thursday.
- The winner of the match reaches the quarter-finals.
- Schiessl and Queiroz Miguel have not met before.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Heredia is ranked in the mid-600s, so this was a lower-ranked first-round opponent and the straight-sets result reflects the expected outcome rather than a win against higher-ranked opposition. The second set ran to 7:5, meaning Schiessl had to stay ahead late to avoid a deciding set. It matters mostly as the platform for this fixture: he arrives without the load of a third set and against an opponent who has just beaten a top-200 seed.
- Schiessl won the first-round match 6:4, 7:5 without dropping a set.
- Heredia is ranked in the mid-600s, below Schiessl's place in the low 500s.
- The win set up the round-of-16 match against Queiroz Miguel.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:18 · Europe/Bucharest24scoreen.24score.com · 30 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Queiroz Miguel's better recent clay win rate and strong first-round win make him a slight favourite.
- Queiroz Miguel has 9 wins and 5 losses overall in his last 14 matches, including 6-3 on clay.
- He won his first round in Curitiba against sixth seed Facundo Mena, leading 6-2, 2-1 before Mena retired.
- His clay set1 record is 7 wins and 2 losses, and set2 is 5 wins and 4 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLuis Queiroz MiguelEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets average fewer than 9.5 games, making under the stronger side.
- Home's second sets average 9.36 total games; away's average 9.22.
- Only 1 of 20 combined clay matches had a second-set tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches average near or above this line, so over is slightly more likely.
- Home's clay matches average 20.55 total games; away's clay matches average 20.89.
- Home's last five clay matches produced totals of 22, 15, 23, 17 and 21 games.
- Away's only recent completed clay match totalled 33 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average is just below 9.5, and quick sets are common in this sample.
- Home's first sets average 9.64 total games; away's average 9.22.
- Only 3 of 20 combined clay matches had a first-set tiebreak.
- Queiroz Miguel's first set against Mena was 6-2 (8 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players usually finish in straight sets, making under 2.5 the stronger side.
- Home's clay matches average 2.18 sets; away's average 2.22 sets.
- Only 4 of 20 combined completed clay matches reached a third set.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Queiroz Miguel's strong first-set record and dominant start in Curitiba make him more likely to win the opening set.
- Queiroz Miguel has won 7 and lost 2 first sets in 9 clay matches.
- He won the first set 6-2 against Facundo Mena in the first round here.
- Schiessl has a 5-6 first-set record on clay this year.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLuis Queiroz MiguelEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Queiroz Miguel's second-set record is marginally better, and he was ahead in the second set in his first-round match.
- Queiroz Miguel has won 5 and lost 4 second sets in 9 clay matches.
- He was leading 2-1 in the second set against Mena before the retirement.
- Schiessl has won 5 and lost 6 second sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLuis Queiroz MiguelEstimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Three-quarters of their clay matches finished without a tiebreak, so no is the stronger side.
- 15 of 20 combined completed clay matches (75%) had no tiebreak.
- Home's clay matches had 2 tiebreaks in 11; away's had 3 in 9.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance74%

Previous match context available

Joao Eduardo Schiessl

8W 7L

6-4 7-5#655Samuel Heredia

6-2 6-1#673Nicolas Zanellato

7-6(7) 6-4—Giovanni Branchetti

6-2 6-3—Eduardo Lage

7-6(11) 6-2#854Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

6-2 6-2#854Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

6-3 6-1—Luiz Felipe Silva

6-2 1-6 6-3—Andre Souza Pinto De Camargo

6-1 6-3—Franco Marini

6-4 5-7 6-4#463Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 4-6 6-1—Pedro Albuquerque Dietrich

6-2 6-3#708Nicolas Villalon

6-4 7-5#801Benjamin Torrealba

6-2 6-1#463Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 6-1#259Franco Roncadelli

Luis Queiroz Miguel

10W 5L

6-2 2-1 ret.#190Facundo Mena

6-3 6-4#356Aidan Mayo

7-5 7-5#467Andrew Fenty

6-2 6-3#692Thomas Fancutt

6-4 6-2#338Tyler Zink

6-1 6-7(3) 6-2#105Valentin Royer

4-6 6-4 7-6(4)#639Manuel Mazza

6-4 6-1#301Petr Nesterov

7-6(4) 6-3#696Giorgio Tabacco

6-3 6-4#407Hernan Casanova

6-4 6-4#538Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-4 6-2#280Juan Manuel La Serna

6-3 6-1#729Wilson Leite

6-0 6-3#136Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-0 6-7(4) 6-3#707Franco Ribero

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JSJoao Eduardo SchiesslSchiessl

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Luis Queiroz MiguelMiguelLM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In68.8%+9.2pp59.6%

1st Serve Won62.7%+9.6pp72.3%

2nd Serve Won46.3%—46.4%

Aces / Match2.3+0.41.9

Double Faults / Match1.71.4 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.7%+2.8pp44.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.6%+4.4pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved58.4%+1.1pp57.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+3.0pp52.9%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

68.8%1st Serve In+9.2pp59.6%

62.7%1st Serve Won+9.6pp72.3%

46.3%2nd Serve Won—46.4%

2.3Aces / Match+0.41.9

1.7Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

41.7%Return Pts Won+2.8pp44.5%

Pressure · 1–1

45.6%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp50.0%

58.4%Break Pts Saved+1.1pp57.3%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+3.0pp52.9%