ChinaWTA BeijingFinished

Predictions graded

Elsa Jacquemot #165France1Magdalena Frech #48Poland2

Sets 5-7 · 6-3 · 4-6Thu 1 Oct 2026, 11:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–460%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMagdalena Frech · 117 places

Elsa Jacquemot

France

Reached a career-high No. 53 on February 2, 2026 and entered Warsaw at No. 101. She is a 176 cm right-hander and won the 2020 Roland Garros girls' singles title.

Current ranking: #165
Peak ranking: #53 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Magdalena Frech

Poland

Reached a career-high No. 22 in October 2024. She ended 2025 early for a mental reset and returned in 2026 with a runner-up finish in Merida before a mixed spring stretch.

Current ranking: #48
Peak ranking: #22 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 171 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 19:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Elsa Jacquemot arrives from qualifying to face No.

48 Magdalena Frech, who won their only meeting 6-4 6-0 in January. Frech is the likelier winner and has taken 8 of 11 hard-court first sets, yet Jacquemot has won 52.3% of her hard-court games. Frech at 1.44, the opening set at 1.45, a straight-sets win at 2.00 and the match ending in two sets at 1.45 all ask more than the record supports; no quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Frech's opening opponent changed on the eve of the match: the direct entrant originally drawn against her withdrew and the place went to a qualifier. Jacquemot therefore arrives as her opponent having already completed two matches on site, while Frech's read on the match has to be rebuilt around a different player than the one the draw assigned her. The change concerns the fixture rather than either player's fitness, and it leaves the ranking gap between No. 48 and No. 165 untouched.
- Petra Marcinko withdrew from the Beijing main draw before the first round
- Jacquemot took the first-round place against Frech after qualifying
- The winner of the match plays Nikola Bartunkova in the second round
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Jacquemot, 23 and currently No. 165, arrives with two completed qualifying wins on the Beijing hard courts, both in straight sets and the second in 1h18. That run puts her in a WTA 1000 main draw for the first time since May and gives her court time at the venue, which matters for a player whose season has dropped well below the career-high No. 53 she reached in February. Qualifying also means she carries two extra matches relative to Frech, so the extra sharpness comes with a longer week.
- Jacquemot beat Zongyu Li 6-4 6-0 in the first qualifying round
- Jacquemot beat Vivian Wolff 6-3 6-4 in 1h18 in the second qualifying round
- It is her first WTA 1000 main draw since May
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:43 · Europe/BucharestTennisTemple match previewen.tennistemple.com · 29 Sep 2026
Frech, ranked No. 48, has been the sharper starter of the two on hard courts.
The first set is where Frech's edge looks firmest: she has won 8 of 11 on hard, and none of those opening sets needed a tiebreak. Jacquemot has won 5 of 12 first sets on hard and has needed three tiebreaks to get through them, so an early deficit is a real possibility for the qualifier. The sample is 11 sets, though, and the opening set Frech last played on hard, against Iva Jovic on 17 September, went against her.
- Frech has won 8 of her 11 hard-court first sets in this window
- She averages 5.45 games won and 3.82 games lost in first sets on hard
- None of those 11 first sets went to a tiebreak
This is the only completed meeting between the two on record, and Frech won it without losing a set, taking the second 6-0 inside a match that lasted 65 minutes. It shows Frech has already found a way to stop Jacquemot extending rallies and can close out a lead quickly against her. The limitation is the setting and the gap of eight months: the match was played on Hobart's hard courts in January, not in the conditions or the form either player brings to Beijing.
- Frech won 6-4 6-0 in 65 minutes
- The match was played on 13 January 2026 in Hobart
- It is the most recent meeting between the two
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:43 · Europe/BucharestTennisTemple match previewen.tennistemple.com · 29 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69%

−1.0ppshort

Recent results for both players have mostly been settled in two sets, and neither has been in long matches on this surface.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Magdalena Frech

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

−7.4ppshort

Frech is the higher-ranked player, has taken a bigger share of her hard-court sets and won the only previous meeting in straight sets.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Magdalena Frech

1.45fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 69%

−10.0ppshort

Frech has been the stronger starter on hard, winning most of her first sets while Jacquemot has lost more than she has won.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Frech is the higher-ranked player, has taken a bigger share of her hard-court sets and won the only previous meeting in straight sets.
- Frech is ranked No.48, Jacquemot No.165
- Frech has won 58.3% of her hard-court sets in this window, Jacquemot 46.2%
- Frech won the only previous meeting 6-4 6-0 on hard in January 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMagdalena FrechEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot has kept her hard-court matches close on games and rarely been beaten by a wide margin.
- Jacquemot is +16 games across her six listed hard-court matches, an average of +2.67 per match
- Jacquemot has won 52.3% of her hard-court games
- Frech has lost by five games or more in three of her last six hard-court matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonElsa Jacquemot +3.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
When Frech has won on hard recently she has usually done so by a clear margin of games.
- Frech's hard-court wins this window came by 5, 7 and 8 games
- Frech's hard-court losses came by 9, 5 and 3 games
- Frech has won 58.3% of her hard-court sets
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMagdalena Frech -1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two are almost identical in games won, which points to tight sets and a total around or above this line.
- Both players average about 20.1 total games per hard-court match
- Frech has won 52.0% of her hard-court games, Jacquemot 52.3%
- Jacquemot's hard-court matches average 103.5 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for these two have averaged under ten games, with Jacquemot's in particular ending quickly.
- Frech's second sets average 9.5 games, Jacquemot's 8.9
- Jacquemot's second sets average 4.67 games won and 4.25 lost
- Frech has lost 5 of 11 second sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Recent results for both players have mostly been settled in two sets, and neither has been in long matches on this surface.
- Frech averages 2.18 sets and Jacquemot 2.17 sets per hard-court match
- Frech's last six hard-court matches were all decided in two sets
- Both players won about 52% of their hard-court games
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Frech has been the stronger starter on hard, winning most of her first sets while Jacquemot has lost more than she has won.
- Frech has won 8 of 11 first sets on hard, Jacquemot 5 of 12
- Frech averages 5.45 games won and 3.82 lost in first sets
- Jacquemot averages 10 games per first set on hard, with three tiebreaks
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMagdalena FrechEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frech holds the better second-set record of the two and her second sets have generally been higher-scoring.
- Frech has won 6 of 11 second sets on hard, Jacquemot 5 of 12
- Frech's second sets average 9.5 games, Jacquemot's 8.9
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMagdalena FrechEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frech's recent hard-court matches have almost all avoided tiebreaks, and most of these sets were decided by a break.
- Only one of Frech's 11 hard-court matches included a tiebreak
- Frech's first sets on hard have had no tiebreaks in 11 matches
- Jacquemot's hard-court matches include five tiebreaks in 12
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frech almost never double faults, so the combined total depends on Jacquemot and should stay under this line.
- Frech 1.9 double faults per hard-court match, Jacquemot 4.8
- Frech's first serve lands 59.6% of the time on hard
- Jacquemot's first serve lands 55.8% of the time on hard
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Adding the two serve profiles gives roughly eight aces per match, which sits just above this line.
- Jacquemot 4.7 aces per hard-court match, Frech 3.3
- Jacquemot wins 69.9% of first-serve points on hard
- Frech 3.3 aces per hard-court match across 11 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-0Elsa Jacquemot#165vMagdalena Frech#48Jan 13, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Elsa Jacquemot

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#245Vivian Wolff 6-4 6-0#311Zongyu Li

7-6(6) 6-2#39Liudmila Samsonova

6-1 7-6(5)#89Anna Blinkova

6-7(5) 6-1 6-1#256Anastasia Tikhonova

7-6(3) 6-2#112Kayla Day

6-0 6-0—Emanuela Lares

6-4 6-7(5) 6-1#564Ekaterina Ovcharenko

6-2 6-2#27Marie Bouzkova

6-3 6-3#64Anna Bondar

7-5 6-3#152Rebecca Sramkova

6-4 6-4#148Carol Young Suh Lee

6-2 6-3#52Mayar Sherif

7-5 6-1#341Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-1 6-1#218Clara Burel

Magdalena Frech

6W 9L

6-2 6-1#13Iva Jovic

6-4 6-3#207Caroline Dolehide

6-1 6-4#157Nao Hibino

7-5 6-3#13Iva Jovic

6-4 7-6(2)#1Elena Rybakina

6-1 6-3#32Jelena Ostapenko

6-2 7-5#83Antonia Ruzic

3-6 6-3 6-2#3Jessica Pegula

7-5 6-3#109Leolia Jeanjean

3-6 6-3 6-0#3Jessica Pegula

6-4 6-3#30Ann Li

7-6(5) 6-4#22Anna Kalinskaya

6-4 6-1#17Naomi Osaka

7-6(7) 6-3#102Eva Lys

6-2 6-4#57Shuai Zhang

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EJElsa JacquemotJacquemot

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Magdalena FrechFrechMF

Elsa Jacquemot carries the stronger recent form — Magdalena Frech's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.1%+1.2pp58.3%

1st Serve Won67.0%+2.5pp64.5%

2nd Serve Won43.9%—43.6%

Aces / Match4.1+0.63.5

Double Faults / Match4.72.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.6%+2.2pp42.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.6%+9.7pp38.9%

Break Pts Saved51.5%+4.7pp56.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.8%+1.8pp49.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

57.1%1st Serve In+1.2pp58.3%

67.0%1st Serve Won+2.5pp64.5%

43.9%2nd Serve Won—43.6%

4.1Aces / Match+0.63.5

4.7Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

44.6%Return Pts Won+2.2pp42.4%

Pressure · 1–1

48.6%Break Pts Converted+9.7pp38.9%

51.5%Break Pts Saved+4.7pp56.2%

Points · 1–0

50.8%Total Pts Won+1.8pp49.0%

Elsa Jacquemot

Magdalena Frech

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Magdalena Frech

Magdalena Frech

Magdalena Frech 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Elsa Jacquemot

Magdalena Frech

Stat Battle