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Predictions graded

Elsa Jacquemot #101France2Zongyu Li #303China0

Sets 6-4 · 6-0Mon 28 Sept 2026, 05:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–464%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElsa Jacquemot · 202 places

Elsa Jacquemot

France

Reached a career-high No. 53 on February 2, 2026 and entered Warsaw at No. 101. She is a 176 cm right-hander and won the 2020 Roland Garros girls' singles title.

Current ranking: #101
Peak ranking: #53 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Zongyu Li

China

A Chinese player ranked No. 303 whose recent singles matches have come at ITF W75 and W15 level, largely on hard courts. She won the W75 Śląskie Open doubles title in Bytom in late August 2026. Reliable public detail on her age, height, hand and career-high ranking is thin.

Current ranking: #303
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest

A WTA 1000 qualifying opener between No.

156 Elsa Jacquemot and No. 303 Zongyu Li, where the ranking gap points one way and Li's 7-3 hard-court window points the other. Jacquemot is the likelier winner, though not comfortably. Li +6.5 games at 1.5 is the one price that offers value; Under 2.5 sets at 1.3 asks too much.

Context

Jacquemot is the higher-ranked player in this qualifying tie but has been starting slowly on hard courts.
Six of her 10 matches in the window were straight-set defeats and only two of her four wins came in straight sets, so recent hard-court sets have often gone the opponent's way. Both three-set wins followed a dropped set, which shows she can recover but also that the first set has been an issue. A strong Li start should therefore come as no surprise here.
- 10 hard-court matches tracked, 4 August to 15 September 2026, record 4-6
- First sets: 3 won, 7 lost
- Second sets: 3 won, 7 lost
- Match scorelines: six 0-2 defeats, two 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins
Li is the lower-ranked player here but holds the stronger hard-court record in her tracked window.
Her first-set record of 8-2 is the standout number: she has usually been ahead early on this surface. The sample ends on 2 September 2026 and excludes two matches that ended in retirement, so it counts only matches played to a finish. It also covers a nine-week stretch rather than a current hot streak, which is why a wide margin in either direction is hard to justify.
- 10 hard-court matches tracked, 29 May to 2 September 2026, record 7-3
- First sets: 8 won, 2 lost; second sets: 7 won, 3 lost
- Six wins in straight sets, one in three sets, three defeats
- Two matches that ended in retirement are excluded from the sample
Both players enter at the same stage of the same qualifying draw, on the same outdoor hard court and in the same slot of the day's order of play, so the fixture itself hands neither side a scheduling or surface advantage. The round matters because Beijing qualifying is a single-match route into a WTA 1000 main draw, and the 147-place gap between Jacquemot at No. 156 and Li at No. 303 reflects how differently their seasons have run. Jacquemot has been competing in tour-level and WTA 1000 main draws, while Li's recent tennis has come at ITF W75 and W15 level, so the same court asks them to bridge different levels of opposition. The counterweight is that a best-of-three qualifier is decided by one match, so the ranking gap alone does not settle it.
- Elsa Jacquemot and Zongyu Li are drawn against each other in the first round of China Open qualifying.
- The fixture is scheduled for 28 September 2026 on the HSBC Moon court as the second match of the day's qualifying order of play.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 03:20 · Europe/BucharestWTA Schedulewww.wtaschedule.com · 27 Sep 2026
Li won the W75 Śląskie Open doubles title in Bytom with Shuo Feng on 30 August 2026, at the same event where she exited the singles draw early. It shows she was still competing and closing out matches on the European circuit in late August, a detail a bare ranking line hides. The limitation is level: a W75 doubles title sits well below a WTA 1000 singles qualifying draw, so it reads as evidence of match activity rather than a singles upturn. Placed next to her ranking, it explains why she arrives in Beijing having played through the summer but without a recent singles win to point to.
- Zongyu Li and Shuo Feng won the W75 Śląskie Open doubles final in Bytom.
- The Bytom tournament concluded on Sunday 30 August 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.30fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 76.9%

−13.9ppshort

The great majority of these two players' hard-court matches end in straight sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquemot plays at the higher level and her September wins came against stronger opposition than Li's, so she is the more likely winner.
- Jacquemot is ranked 156, Li 303
- Jacquemot won four straight hard-court matches in September, including against Day (118) and Tikhonova (250)
- Li has lost five of her last six matches
- Jacquemot has won 49.5% of her games on hard this window
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonElsa JacquemotEstimated chance63%

Games1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Jacquemot has rarely beaten anyone at Li's level by seven games or more.
- Jacquemot's largest recent margins came against Tikhonova (250, +9) and unranked Lares (+12)
- Her other hard-court margins this month were +6, +5, -5 and -6
- Li lost her most recent hard match 13-15 in games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostZongyu Li +6.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Li's recent hard-court matches have been close and Jacquemot wins barely half the games on this surface.
- Li lost her latest hard match by two games (13-15) and won the previous one by six (12-6)
- Li's hard-court window is 7-3
- Jacquemot has won only 49.5% of her hard-court games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostZongyu Li +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players average just above this line.
- Jacquemot's second sets average 9.1 games
- Li's second sets average 9.1 games
- Li's second sets produced one tiebreak in ten hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches sit around this line, with Li's averaging just above it.
- Jacquemot's hard matches average 20.6 games
- Li's hard matches average 20.9 games
- Jacquemot has won 49.5% of her hard-court games, pointing to close matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets in these players' hard-court matches average close to ten games.
- Jacquemot's first sets average 10.1 games
- Li's first sets average 9.3 games
- Jacquemot has played three first-set tiebreaks in ten hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
The great majority of these two players' hard-court matches end in straight sets.
- Jacquemot averages 2.2 sets per hard match
- Li averages 2.3 sets per hard match
- Six of Jacquemot's ten hard matches were straight-set defeats
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
If the match is level, Jacquemot's stronger level of competition gives her the better second-set chance.
- Jacquemot's second sets on hard: 3-7, averaging 4.4 games won to 4.7 lost
- Li's second sets on hard: 7-3, 5.2 to 3.9
- Jacquemot has won four of her last six matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonElsa JacquemotEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The ranking gap gives Jacquemot a small edge, but her habit of losing opening sets makes this close.
- Jacquemot's opening sets on hard: 3 won, 7 lost
- Li's opening sets on hard: 8 won, 2 lost
- Jacquemot averages 4.6 games won and 5.5 lost in first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonElsa JacquemotEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Li's matches seldom reach a tiebreak, which limits the chance of one here.
- Li: two matches with a tiebreak in ten on hard
- Jacquemot: five in ten
- Both players' set totals average around nine to ten games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Elsa Jacquemot

6W 9L

7-6(6) 6-2#37Liudmila Samsonova

6-1 7-6(5)#86Anna Blinkova

6-7(5) 6-1 6-1#250Anastasia Tikhonova

7-6(3) 6-2#118Kayla Day

6-0 6-0—Emanuela Lares

6-4 6-7(5) 6-1#557Ekaterina Ovcharenko

6-2 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

6-3 6-3#69Anna Bondar

7-5 6-3#146Rebecca Sramkova

6-4 6-4#143Carol Young Suh Lee

6-2 6-3#50Mayar Sherif

7-5 6-1#336Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-1 6-1#218Clara Burel

6-4 7-6(5)#649Ilinca Dalina Amariei

6-1 6-2#277Aurora Zantedeschi

Zongyu Li

7W 8L

3-6 6-4 6-3#260Fangran Tian

6-1 6-0#239Xinyu Gao

6-0 6-0#201Rositsa Dencheva

4-6 6-3 6-0#475Zhibek Kulambayeva

6-1 6-4#213Francisca Jorge

4-1 ret.#297Hanna Chang

6-4 6-2#455Unknown Player

6-2 6-1#171Mai Hontama

6-3 7-6(6)#259Mei Yamaguchi

6-1 6-2#407Reina Goto

7-5 6-3#329Sohyun Park

6-2 6-4#547Evialina Laskevich

7-6(7) 1-6 6-1#573Ankita Raina

6-3 ret.—I Wen Wan

6-4 3-6 6-3#158Alexandra Shubladze

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EJElsa JacquemotJacquemot

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Zongyu LiLiZL

Zongyu Li carries the stronger recent form — Elsa Jacquemot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In56.5%+7.8pp64.3%

1st Serve Won63.7%+5.9pp57.8%

2nd Serve Won42.3%+7.2pp49.5%

Aces / Match3.7+2.61.1

Double Faults / Match5.22.3 fewer2.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won44.2%—44.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted44.4%+0.9pp45.3%

Break Pts Saved48.2%+11.6pp59.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.2%—49.6%

Serve · 2–3

56.5%1st Serve In+7.8pp64.3%

63.7%1st Serve Won+5.9pp57.8%

42.3%2nd Serve Won+7.2pp49.5%

3.7Aces / Match+2.61.1

5.2Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer2.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

44.2%Return Pts Won—44.4%

Pressure · 0–2

44.4%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp45.3%

48.2%Break Pts Saved+11.6pp59.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.2%Total Pts Won—49.6%

Elsa Jacquemot

Zongyu Li

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Zongyu Li +6.5

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 5 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Elsa Jacquemot

Zongyu Li

Stat Battle