FranceMouilleron-Le-Captif - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg #332France2Gauthier Onclin #167Belgium0

Sets 6-1 · 6-4Wed 30 Sept 2026, 12:18 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGauthier Onclin · 165 places

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

France

Reached a career-high No. 193 on 17 November 2025. Profile listings identify hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #332
Peak ranking: #193 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Gauthier Onclin

Belgium

At 25, he reached a career-high No. 167 on 3 August 2026. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #167 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 05:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Gueymard Wayenburg carries a six-match indoor hard streak into a second round against Onclin, who is ranked 49 places higher but has lost four of his nine hard-court matches in straight sets.

Gueymard Wayenburg is the likelier winner, and 1.73 is the one quoted price that offers value; the 2 on Onclin asks for more than his form supports. The over 22.5 games and under 2.5 sets forecasts are low-confidence leanings, not priced picks.

Context

A title five days before this match reframes Gueymard Wayenburg's ranking position: he entered Rennes at No. 332 and left it at No. 217. The consequence for this fixture is a widening gap between his ranking and his current level, so the No. 218 listing understates the opponent Onclin meets. The counterpoint is that the surge rests on a single week's results, and Onclin's No. 169 still sits above him, so the form swing is recent rather than established.
- Won the Rennes Challenger 100 final 4-6 6-3 7-5 against Harold Mayot .
- It was his second career Challenger title, and he needed a ninth match point to close the final.
- He started the week at No. 332 and rose to No. 217, a gain of about 115 places.
- The rise left him in contention for a place in Australian Open qualifying.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 05:39 · Europe/Bucharest
Gueymard Wayenburg has been winning sets at both ends of this stretch, and only two of those 11 matches reached a tiebreak.
That set pattern is the core of his case here: Onclin has lost six of nine second sets on the same surface, so a lead built after the opener has proved hard for opponents to reverse. The caveat is the sample — 11 matches across four weeks, with three of his wins needing a decider.
- 11 completed hard-court matches between 31 August and 28 September 2026: 9 wins, 2 losses, 20 of 27 sets won (74.1%).
- Set one: 8 wins, 3 losses; set two: 9 wins, 2 losses.
- Scorelines: six 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins and two 1-2 defeats.
- Average 23.2 total games per match, with two of the 11 matches featuring a tiebreak.
His ace rate has held across that 15-match window and is the clearest difference between the two serving profiles in this match.
A serve that ends points early shortens the pressure on his return games, and it meets an opponent who has saved only 50.9% of the break points he has faced on hard this stretch. The counterpoint is that these numbers come from his 15-match overall window rather than the hard-court sample alone, so the surface-specific ace figure sits alongside them rather than replacing them.
- 15 tracked matches up to 28 September 2026: 111 aces (7.4 per match) and 57 double faults (3.8 per match).
- First-serve points won: 73.6% (519 of 705).
- First serves in: 59.3% (705 of 1,189).
- Overall record in the window: 10 wins and 5 losses.
Gueymard Wayenburg comes into this second round on six straight indoor wins, five of them in Rennes, where the draw included wins over players ranked inside the top 200 and one inside the top 75. The question this fixture asks is whether that form holds against a higher-ranked opponent: Herbert, at around No. 290, was a far lower test than Onclin, who sits 49 places above Gueymard Wayenburg. The counterpoint is that the previous week's success came at a different French indoor event, so it provides continuity of conditions rather than a direct read on this venue or this opponent.
- Beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert 6-4 7-5 in the first round .
- Advanced to the second round at Mouilleron-le-Captif, an indoor hard-court event.
- The win followed his Rennes title the previous week.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 05:39 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg has won nine of eleven hard-court matches in this stretch and serves much bigger than Onclin.
- Hard-court record 9-2, winning 74% of sets (20/27) and 57% of games (146/255)
- First-serve points won 75.6% and 7.5 aces per match on this surface
- Onclin is 5-4 on hard with 48.9% of total points won (578/1182)
- Won the Rennes Challenger on 20 Sep and beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert 6-4 7-5 in the first round here
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance64%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their hard-court matches have averaged just over 23 games with a substantial share going the distance.
- Set evidence average 23.2 total games for Gueymard Wayenburg over 11 hard matches
- Onclin's hard-court average is 22.8 total games over 9 matches
- 43% of the tracked hard matches went to three sets
- Both men played three-set matches in their most recent week
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-set averages sit right around the line, with Onclin's sets trending slightly longer.
- Gueymard Wayenburg set-one average 9.36 total games over 11 matches
- Onclin set-one average 10.11 total games over 9 matches
- One first-set tiebreak each in the tracked samples
- Gueymard Wayenburg's opening sets here were 6-4 and 6-4
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have generally been decided with a break rather than extended to a tiebreak.
- Combined second-set average is slightly under ten games
- No second-set tiebreaks recorded in either sample
- Gueymard Wayenburg's second sets average 9.36 games
- Onclin lost four second sets by two games or more
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second set has been Gueymard Wayenburg's strongest stretch of the match on this surface.
- Won 9 of 11 second sets on hard
- Average 5.55 games won against 3.82 lost in set two
- Onclin has lost 6 of 9 second sets on this surface
- Closed out Herbert 7-5 and Janvier 6-3 in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg starts fast on hard and has the stronger serve in opening sets.
- Won 8 of 11 first sets on hard
- Average 5.45 games won against 3.91 lost in set one
- Onclin has lost 5 of 9 first sets on this surface
- Opened with 6-4 and 6-4 first sets in his last two matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the norm in this sample for both players.
- 14 of 20 combined hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Gueymard Wayenburg straight-set rate 8 of 11
- Onclin straight-set rate 6 of 9
- Average sets per match 2.45 and 2.33
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Breaks of serve have generally arrived before sets reach a tiebreak in this sample.
- Only 3 of 20 combined hard matches included a tiebreak
- Gueymard Wayenburg 2 of 11, Onclin 1 of 9
- Average of 2.4 sets per match limits tiebreak chances
- Break-point conversion is 50% or better for both
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is double-faulting often enough on this surface to reach the line on current numbers.
- Gueymard Wayenburg 31 double faults in 11 hard matches
- Onclin 18 double faults in 8 hard matches
- Combined average of about 5.1 per match
- Both under 4 double faults per match individually
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg's heavy serving supplies most of the total, with Onclin adding a small amount.
- Gueymard Wayenburg 7.5 aces per match on hard (82 in 11)
- Onclin 2.1 aces per match on hard (17 in 8)
- Combined average of about 9.6 aces per match
- Match averages are per full match, not per set
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

10W 5L

6-4 7-5#292Pierre-Hugues Herbert

4-6 6-3 7-5#191Harold Mayot

4-6 7-6(8) 6-3#72Titouan Droguet 6-0 6-3#168Francesco Maestrelli

6-4 6-4#311Ugo Blanchet

6-4 6-3#633Maxime Janvier

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#147Mark Lajal

6-0 6-1#800Mae Malige

3-6 6-2 6-2#277Michele Ribecai

6-4 6-1#513Sergio Callejon Hernando

3-6 6-4 6-4#422Izan Almazan Valiente

6-4 6-4#239Guido Ivan Justo

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#269Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

7-6(4) 6-3#154Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-6(1) 7-5#286Jerome Kym

Gauthier Onclin

8W 7L

7-6(4) 6-2#384Dan Added 6-4 6-1#140Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-2#297Raphael Perot

7-5 7-5#179Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 6-4#68Vit Kopriva

2-6 6-2 6-3#204Timofey Skatov

6-4 5-7 6-4#230Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 6-4#612Ryan Seggerman

6-3 6-3#206Andres Andrade

6-4 3-6 6-3#338Tyler Zink

6-2 2-6 7-6(2)#186Diego Dedura

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#162Tom Gentzsch

6-2 7-6(6)#418Niels Visker

7-6(13) 6-1#348Duje Ajdukovic

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#481Thijs Boogaard

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SWSascha Gueymard WayenburgWayenburg

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Gauthier OnclinOnclinGO

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg carries the stronger recent form — Gauthier Onclin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1559.3%+2.7pp56.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1573.6%+6.4pp67.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1550.4%+1.5pp51.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/157.4+5.51.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/153.80.6 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1537.9%+2.1pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1546.7%+5.0pp51.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1568.1%+11.7pp56.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1551.5%+1.1pp50.4%

Serve · 3–2

59.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+2.7pp56.6%

73.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+6.4pp67.2%

50.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+1.5pp51.9%

7.4Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+5.51.9

3.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/150.6 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

37.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+2.1pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

46.7%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+5.0pp51.7%

68.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+11.7pp56.4%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+1.1pp50.4%