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Predictions graded

Tomas Machac #58Czechia0Arthur Gea #85France2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Tue 29 Sept 2026, 03:09 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions9–375%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTomas Machac · 27 places

Tomas Machac

Czechia

The Czech reached his career-high ranking of No. 20 in March 2025. Available historical performance data identifies hard court as his strongest surface.

Current ranking: #58
Peak ranking: #20 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Arthur Gea

France

Current structured profile identifies Gea as a right-handed player ranked No. 85. Reliable public career-profile details were not established.

Current ranking: #85
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 22:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Gea and Machac meet for a main-draw place in Beijing, and Gea brings the better hard-court record and a far lighter workload.

Gea winning looks the likelier outcome, and 1.65 for him to take the match is a worthwhile price; the same 1.65 stands on Gea to win the first set and on Gea to win the second set. The risk is Machac, who came through a 185-minute three-setter a day earlier.

Context

Machac went four months without a tour-level singles win, losing three straight matches without taking a set after returning in August, so a completed three-set win changes what he brings into a second qualifying match. He had to absorb losing the second-set tiebreak after leading 4-1 and still win the decider. The opponent was ranked No. 54 rather than a low-ranked qualifier, which gives the result some weight. One win after a long layoff does not restore his previous level.
- Machac defeated Yannick Hanfmann 7-6(7) 6-7(6) 6-4 in the opening qualifying round in Beijing .
- His previous singles win came over Zizou Bergs at Roland Garros in May 2026; three defeats followed, all without winning a set.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest
Machac spent 185 minutes on court in his opening round while Gea needed 77, a gap of nearly two hours before both return the following day. Gea also faced a far lower-ranked opponent, No. 849 Rigele Te, so the difference reflects both duration and the quality of the work. With a single day between rounds, Machac carries the heavier recent load into a match that carries the same main-draw prize for each player.
- Machac's first qualifying round against Yannick Hanfmann lasted 185 minutes over three sets.
- Gea's first qualifying round against Rigele Te lasted 77 minutes over two sets, with five games conceded.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/BucharestMachac vs Gea Beijing 2026 match pagefr.tennistemple.com · 28 Sep 2026
The previous meeting produced no completed result: Gea was one game from the match when Machac retired, so the 1-0 record rests on an unfinished contest rather than a settled outcome. It was played eight months ago on a European hard court, not in Beijing conditions, and the two have never faced each other over a full match. Gea's lead in the matchup therefore describes what happened in February more than it predicts a complete match here.
- Machac and Gea met on 4 February 2026 in Montpellier on hard court; Gea led 6-3 4-5 when Machac retired.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/BucharestMachac vs Gea Beijing 2026 match pagefr.tennistemple.com · 28 Sep 2026
The title identifies Gea as a first-time ATP champion on hard courts in 2026, and his run included wins over Francisco Cerundolo and Denis Shapovalov, both higher-ranked than he was that week. That gives his current hard-court record more substance than a single qualifying win can. The title is about eight weeks old, so it is current-season evidence rather than a direct read on his form this week.
- Gea won the Los Cabos title on 2 August 2026, defeating Denis Shapovalov in the final.
- Francisco Cerundolo was among his earlier opponents that week, and the title lifted him into the top 100.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Gea has the stronger hard-court record, the better serve and return numbers, and a far lighter workload the day before.
- Gea is 12-3 on hard in this window, including a Los Cabos title and a US Open fourth round
- Gea wins 71.7% of first-serve points on hard and saves 65.3% of break points
- Machac's hard record is 1-3, with 45.8% of total points won
- Machac spent 185 minutes in his opening qualifying round; Gea needed 77
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArthur GeaEstimated chance73%

Games4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gea winning by two games or more follows from his much better game-level numbers on this surface.
- Gea is 9-2 in best-of-3 hard matches tracked
- Machac's three recent best-of-3 hard losses were all by five games or more
- Gea's hard game win rate is 55.8% against Machac's 39.4%
- Gea's average winning margin in best-of-3 hard matches is around +4 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonArthur Gea -1.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets run past the line on average, with Machac's especially long.
- Gea's second sets average 10 games with 3 tiebreaks in 11 matches
- Machac's second sets average 11.3 games
- Machac's second-set game line is 4.7-6.7
- Three of Gea's 11 second sets went to a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Three-set matches and 7-6 sets keep the game margin within four often enough to favour the underdog line.
- Gea's margins in best-of-3 hard wins are not all large; his set evidence shows four of nine wins going the distance
- Machac's 185-minute Beijing win finished 19-17 on games against Hanfmann
- Gea's hard-court game win rate is 55.8%, not a blowout rate
- Machac's hard game win rate is 39.4%
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostTomas Machac +3.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Machac's long matches and the possibility of a deciding set push the total to around the line.
- Gea's best-of-3 hard matches average 22.8 games; Machac's average 24.7
- Machac's last four hard matches totalled 36, 25, 21 and 17 games
- Gea's Beijing opener lasted 17 games; Machac's lasted 36
- Both players' best-of-3 sets average just under or above 10 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gea wins enough matches by three games or more to make this line slightly more likely than not.
- Gea's recent hard win over Svajda finished +9 on games and over Cerundolo +4
- Five of Gea's 11 best-of-3 hard matches were straight-set wins
- Machac lost his last two completed hard matches by 11 and 5 games
- Gea's best-of-3 hard set record is 20-7
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonArthur Gea -2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Most of Gea's opening sets in this format finished at 6-3 or shorter.
- Gea's first sets average 9.6 games across 11 best-of-3 hard matches
- Removing his two tiebreak sets, the remaining first sets average below nine games
- Gea's first-set game line is 5.1-4.5
- Machac's first-set average is 10 games over three matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Gea's stronger serving and returning on this surface has translated into a clear first-set advantage.
- Gea has won the first set in 7 of 11 best-of-3 hard matches
- Machac has lost two of three first sets tracked in this window
- Gea wins 71.7% of first-serve points on hard against Machac's 64.4%
- Gea's first-set game average is 5.1-4.5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonArthur GeaEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Gea's second-set record in this format is his strongest, and Machac's is his weakest.
- Gea has won the second set in 8 of 11 best-of-3 hard matches
- Machac has lost all three second sets tracked in this window
- Gea's second-set game average is 5.6-4.4
- Machac's second-set game average is 4.7-6.7
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonArthur GeaEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes are slightly more common than deciders in both players' recent hard records.
- Gea is 9-2 in best-of-3 hard matches with a 2.45-set average
- Five of Gea's 11 best-of-3 hard matches were 2-0 wins
- Machac has been beaten 0-2 in two of his three recent best-of-3 hard matches
- Gea's last match finished in two sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The two combined ace rates sit above the line, and both players hold serve strongly enough to add to it.
- Gea averages 5.2 aces per match across 14 hard matches
- Machac averages 5.8 aces per match on hard in this window
- Combined average is about 11 aces per match
- Machac's hard sample is only 4 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players serve well enough, and their recent hard matches have regularly produced tiebreaks.
- Gea has had a tiebreak in 5 of 11 best-of-3 hard matches
- Machac has had a tiebreak in 2 of 3 best-of-3 hard matches, including his Beijing opener
- Gea averages 5.2 aces per match and Machac 5.8 on hard
- Gea's second sets produced 3 tiebreaks in 11 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits just below the line, and Machac in particular rarely doubles.
- Combined hard-court double-fault average is about 8.2 per match
- Machac averages 3.0 double faults per match on hard
- Gea averaged 5.2 double faults per match over 14 hard matches
- Gea conceded only five games in his Beijing opener, limiting his service games
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Arthur Gea: 12/12 recent winner projections matched

12 of 12 comparable winner projections favouring Arthur Gea matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Arthur Gea12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Los Cabos

#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong0-2#127Arthur Gea

BetBugsArthur Gea to win·62%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong0-2#127Arthur Gea

Arthur Gea to win

62%probability

Arthur Gea won

Matched

30 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#127Arthur Gea2-1#118Michael Zheng

BetBugsArthur Gea to win·55%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#127Arthur Gea2-1#118Michael Zheng

Arthur Gea to win

55%probability

Arthur Gea won

Matched

18 Jul·Granby - Canada

#287Murphy Cassone0-2#137Arthur Gea

BetBugsArthur Gea to win·62%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#287Murphy Cassone0-2#137Arthur Gea

Arthur Gea to win

62%probability

Arthur Gea won

Matched

17 Jul·Granby - Canada

#223Liam Draxl1-2#137Arthur Gea

BetBugsArthur Gea to win·62%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#223Liam Draxl1-2#137Arthur Gea

Arthur Gea to win

62%probability

Arthur Gea won

Matched

17 Jul·Granby - Canada

—Keegan Rice0-2#137Arthur Gea

BetBugsArthur Gea to win·78%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

—Keegan Rice0-2#137Arthur Gea

Arthur Gea to win

78%probability

Arthur Gea won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 4-5 ret.Tomas Machac#75vArthur Gea#58Feb 4, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Tomas Machac

7W 8L

7-6(7) 6-7(6) 6-4#54Yannick Hanfmann

6-2 6-3 6-2#98Toby Samuel

6-2 7-6(1)#335Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-2#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-4 6-2 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 6-4 6-3#38Zizou Bergs

6-4 7-6(4)#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#39Cameron Norrie

3-6 7-6(3) 6-3#123Francisco Comesana

6-4 6-3#24Andrey Rublev

2-6 6-4 6-1#51Sebastian Baez

6-1 6-7(3) 6-3#1Jannik Sinner

7-6(2) 6-3#22Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 1-6 6-3#67Daniel Altmaier

6-4 4-6 6-3#13Rafael Jodar

Arthur Gea

12W 3L

6-2 6-3#840Rigele Te

3-6 6-7(0) 7-6(7) 7-6(3) 6-4#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(7) 3-6 4-6 6-3 6-2#92Michael Zheng

5-7 6-3 6-2 6-2#80Zachary Svajda

6-3 2-6 3-6 6-3 6-1#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-3 6-1#139Nishesh Basavareddy

6-4 6-7(4) 6-2#177Clement Chidekh

6-3 7-6(4)#249Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-4#46Denis Shapovalov

7-6 6-3#100Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-7(11) 6-4 6-0#22Francisco Cerundolo

0-6 6-4 6-0#92Michael Zheng

6-4 6-7(8) 6-2#158Soon-Woo Kwon

6-4 1-6 6-1#112Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 6-3#268Murphy Cassone

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TMTomas MachacMachac

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Arthur GeaGeaAG

Arthur Gea carries the stronger recent form — Tomas Machac's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1561.4%+2.6pp58.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.8%+4.9pp71.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1549.8%+1.1pp50.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.9+1.35.2

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.92.3 fewer5.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1536.3%+5.3pp41.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1537.0%+10.1pp47.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1551.8%+13.5pp65.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1548.2%+4.3pp52.5%

Serve · 2–3

61.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.6pp58.8%

66.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.9pp71.7%

49.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.1pp50.9%

3.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.35.2

2.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.3 fewer5.2

Return · 0–1

36.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp41.6%

Pressure · 0–2

37.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+10.1pp47.1%

51.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+13.5pp65.3%

Points · 0–1

48.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.3pp52.5%