ChinaATP BeijingFinished

Predictions graded

Jie Cui #450China2Daniel Altmaier #60Germany0

Sets 6-4 · 6-1Mon 28 Sept 2026, 10:11 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniel Altmaier · 390 places

Jie Cui

China

China's Cui was born on 24 January 1998. Public profile data identifies a career-best singles ranking of No. 280 in January 2025; no reliable preferred-surface information was found.

Current ranking: #450
Peak ranking: #280 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Daniel Altmaier

Germany

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 44 in January 2026. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; no reliable current injury or decline update surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #60
Peak ranking: #44 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 04:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Altmaier is No. 67 to Cui's No. 456, but he has won only one of seven opening sets in his hard-court sample, while Cui has taken 8 of 14.

Altmaier still looks the likelier winner, and 1.35 is short for that. The quoted prices with a little edge are Over 23.5 games at 2.2, Cui to win the first set at 2.6, Cui to win the second set at 2.6, and Over 2.5 sets at 2.4.

Context

Altmaier played his most recent match, losing a Davis Cup singles rubber to Dino Prizmic 6-4 6-3 on indoor hard in Germany's tie with Croatia. That defeat came against an opponent ranked outside the top 100 and left him with one win in his last five completed matches, a run that sits badly with a player who was ranked No. 50 a year ago. A qualifying match against a far lower-ranked opponent is therefore the kind of test that shows whether his level has genuinely dropped or whether the hard-court stretch of the season has simply been unkind. The counterweight is the quality of opposition: Prizmic and his other recent conquerors play at tour level, while Cui is ranked No. 456.
- Dino Prizmic beat Altmaier 6-4 6-3 in a September 2026 Davis Cup singles rubber.
- The defeat left Germany and Croatia level at 1-1 after the first day of the tie.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:37 · Europe/Bucharest
Cui went to Beijing straight from Hangzhou, where he lost a three-set first-round match to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 6-1 6-7(2) 6-4, so he arrived with recent match time and nearly three hours of tennis in his legs. Altmaier's previous ATP Tour singles match was 26 days earlier, with the Davis Cup rubber on 19 September his only competitive outing in that window, leaving him short of tour-level singles rhythm. The asymmetry is real but limited: four days between matches is a normal turnaround, and the sharper concern for Cui is accumulated court time from a near-three-hour match. Hard-court form is the shared weak point, with Altmaier holding three wins from seven tracked hard-court matches and most of Cui's wins coming below tour level.
- Cui lost 6-1 6-7(2) 6-4 to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in the Hangzhou first round .
- Altmaier's last ATP Tour singles match before Beijing was at the US Open in early September, with a Davis Cup rubber on 19 September the only match in between.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:37 · Europe/BucharestTennisTemple match previewen.tennistemple.com · 28 Sep 2026
Altmaier is the higher-ranked player but his hard-court win-loss line is thin, and the first set has been the weakest part of it.
Cui has been the stronger starter of the two on hard courts, so Altmaier losing the opening set here is a live risk rather than a fluke. That does not overturn the ranking gap across a full match, but it makes a comfortable straight-sets Altmaier win harder to assume.
- Hard-court best-of-three sample, 3 August to 19 September 2026: Altmaier won 1 of 7 first sets, with 2 tiebreaks in those opening sets.
- Across the same 7 matches he averaged 4.4 games won and 5.6 lost in set one, and 4.4 won and 5.7 lost in set two (3 wins, 4 losses in second sets).
- One retired match is excluded from the 7-match sample.
Cui's hard-court scores show a player who either takes matches in straight sets or loses them long, with little in between.
Total games have clustered near 23.9 in Cui's hard-court matches, and Altmaier's habit of dropping opening sets gives this match a route to a decider, which is the case for the 23.5-game line. A straight-sets Altmaier win is the main way that line would fall short.
- 14 hard-court best-of-three matches, 10 June to 24 September 2026: five 1-2 losses, four 0-2 losses and five 2-0 wins.
- Average total games 23.9 per match, with set one averaging 9.6 games and set two 10.6; 6 of the 14 matches included a tiebreak.
- No retired matches are included in this set of 14.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Altmaier is the higher-ranked player with better recent wins, while Cui has struggled against much lower-ranked opponents.
- Altmaier is ranked No. 67, while Cui is No. 456.
- Altmaier's hard best-of-3 set evidence shows three wins and five losses.
- Cui has recent hard-court losses to players ranked 426, 446 and 273.
- Altmaier has recent hard-court wins over players ranked 126 and 108.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDaniel AltmaierEstimated chance70%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players average more than ten games, favoring the over.
- Cui's set2 average is 10.6 total games; Altmaier's is 10.1.
- Cui had 5 tiebreaks in set2 across 14 hard matches.
- Altmaier had 2 tiebreaks in set2 across 7 hard matches.
- Cui's set2 average games won is 5.4 and lost 5.2.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Altmaier is favored to win by at least two games given the ranking gap.
- Altmaier is 3-5 on hard in the last 15.
- Cui is 5-9 on hard in the last 15.
- Altmaier's hard best-of-3 record is 3-5.
- Altmaier is ranked No. 67 vs Cui No. 456.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDaniel Altmaier -1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average close to ten games, so over is slightly favored.
- Cui's set1 average is 9.6 total games; Altmaier's is 10.0.
- Cui's set1 had 2 tiebreaks in 14 matches; Altmaier's had 2 in 7.
- Altmaier's set1 average games won is 4.4 and lost 5.6.
- Cui's set1 average games won is 4.9 and lost 4.6.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Three-set matches and close sets are common for both players, so the total is near the line.
- Cui's hard-court matches average 23.9 total games; Altmaier's hard best-of-3 matches average 23.0.
- Cui's hard set evidence shows five three-set matches out of 14; Altmaier's shows two out of seven.
- Cui's set1 average is 9.6 total games and Altmaier's is 10.0.
- Cui's set2 average is 10.6 total games and Altmaier's is 10.1.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Altmaier's ranking advantage and Cui's weak recent form point to a possible straight-set result.
- Four of Altmaier's seven hard best-of-3 matches ended in straight sets.
- Altmaier's four hard losses were all straight sets.
- Cui's five hard wins were all straight sets.
- Altmaier is ranked much higher than Cui, so a straight-set win is plausible.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Altmaier's higher level should tell more in the second set if the match is still close.
- Altmaier is ranked No. 67 and has recent hard-court wins over No. 126 and No. 108.
- Altmaier won 3 of 7 second sets on hard.
- Cui won 7 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Altmaier's set2 average is 4.4 games won and 5.7 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostDaniel AltmaierEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Altmaier's ranking edge makes him a slight favorite despite his poor first-set record.
- Altmaier is ranked No. 67, while Cui is No. 456.
- Altmaier won only 1 of 7 first sets in hard best-of-3 matches.
- Cui won 8 of 14 first sets in hard best-of-3 matches.
- Altmaier's set1 average is 4.4 games won and 5.6 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniel AltmaierEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A straight-set match without a tiebreak is the more common single outcome in these samples.
- Cui's hard matches had no tiebreak in 8 of 14 cases.
- Altmaier's hard best-of-3 matches had no tiebreak in 4 of 7 cases.
- Altmaier's four straight-set losses had no tiebreak.
- Cui's five 2-0 wins were all straight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Jie Cui

5W 10L

6-1 6-7(2) 6-4#58Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

4-6 6-4 6-4#146Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-6(3) 6-4#273Yi Zhou

7-5 6-4#314Fajing Sun

6-3 6-4#446James Kent Trotter

6-2 4-6 7-5#426Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-2#269Petr Bar Biryukov

6-3 6-4#531Aziz Ouakaa

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3#763Matthew Forbes

6-3 6-4#688Thomas Fancutt

6-4 7-6(7)#763Matthew Forbes

6-3 7-6(2)#501Trevor Svajda

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#579Dmitry Popko

6-0 6-3—Alejandro Jacome Jaramillo

3-6 6-1 6-4#486Duncan Chan

Daniel Altmaier

6W 9L

6-4 6-3#101Dino Prizmic

6-3 6-1 6-7(5) 6-2#81Zachary Svajda

7-6(5) 7-5#35Ignacio Buse

6-1 7-6(6)#126Francisco Comesana

6-4 6-2#24Lorenzo Musetti

3-6 6-3 6-4#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-2 6-1#16Brandon Nakashima

6-7(2) 7-6(5) 6-4#91Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 3-6 7-5#96Alex Molcan

6-3 6-2#47Raphael Collignon

6-4 6-4#20Luciano Darderi

6-2 7-5#97Hugo Gaston

6-4 3-6 7-5 6-2#96Alex Molcan

6-3 3-2 ret.#38Zizou Bergs

6-4 7-6(4)#80Aleksandar Kovacevic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JCJie CuiCui

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Daniel AltmaierAltmaierDA

Jie Cui carries the stronger recent form — Daniel Altmaier's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1564.6%+2.4pp62.2%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1569.5%+2.1pp71.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1550.9%+5.7pp45.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/153.6+3.97.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/151.91.8 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1536.8%+1.1pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1544.7%+11.0pp33.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1563.1%+0.8pp63.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1549.9%+1.1pp48.8%

Serve · 3–2

64.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+2.4pp62.2%

69.5%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+2.1pp71.6%

50.9%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+5.7pp45.2%

3.6Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+3.97.5

1.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/151.8 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

36.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+1.1pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

44.7%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+11.0pp33.7%

63.1%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+0.8pp63.9%

Points · 1–0

49.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+1.1pp48.8%