United StatesColumbus - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Matthew Forbes #763United States0Alex Rybakov #511United States2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Sun 27 Sept 2026, 17:39 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex Rybakov · 252 places

Matthew Forbes

United States

Forbes reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 741 in July 2026. Available records show his main professional match volume has been on hard courts.

Current ranking: #763
Peak ranking: #741 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Alex Rybakov

United States

Structured player data lists Rybakov at No. 507, left-handed with a one-handed backhand, and 185 cm. A retirement is listed at the Cary Challenger in late June 2026, but the requested sources do not identify an active issue for Roehampton.

Current ranking: #511
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 14:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Alex Rybakov and Matthew Forbes meet in the first round of Columbus qualifying, and the opening set is the clearest split between them: Rybakov has taken 9 of 12 first sets on hard court, Forbes only 5 of 14.

Rybakov is the likelier match winner and the likelier first-set winner. The one quoted price worth taking is Rybakov to win the opening set at 1.67; his 1.62 match price and Forbes at 2.15 offer nothing.

Context

Rybakov, the higher-ranked player at No. 511 and a left-hander with a one-handed backhand, shows a 2-0-or-nothing set pattern across this stretch.
The split cuts both ways in this qualifying opener: when Rybakov gets in front he has closed matches out in two sets, but when the match reaches a third set he has usually been the one losing it, so Forbes taking the opening set would carry real weight. Only three of the 12 matches contained a tiebreak, and one retirement was excluded from the sample.
- Rybakov's 12 tracked hard-court matches from 16 Jun 2026 to 21 Sep 2026 show scorelines of 2-0 five times, 1-2 five times and 0-2 twice.
- All five of his wins in that sample were straight-set wins.
- Only 3 of the 12 matches featured a tiebreak; one retirement was excluded.
Forbes, ranked No. 763, has regularly started sets from behind on this surface, dropping the opening set in nine of those 14 matches.
That makes the first set in Columbus the part of the match where he is most exposed, and it is why the opening set is where the two records separate most clearly. The sample covers completed, non-retired matches only, with one retirement excluded, and three of his first sets reached a tiebreak.
- Forbes's 14 hard-court matches from 7 Nov 2025 to 25 Aug 2026 produced a 5-9 first-set record.
- He averaged 4.64 games won and 5.14 games lost in first sets.
- Three first sets in the sample went to a tiebreak; one retirement was excluded.
This is a qualifying-round match rather than main-draw play, so neither player holds main-draw status and the loser leaves Columbus without a main-draw match. Both men are ranked outside the top 500, Rybakov at No. 511 and Forbes at No. 763, which is what places them in the qualifying field instead of the main draw. Both are American and the fixture is on hard court, the surface on which nearly all of their recent matches have been played. The 252-place ranking gap is the main separation between them, and it is a modest one over a best-of-three qualifying match at this level.
- The fixture is men's singles qualifying round 1 at the ATP Challenger in Columbus, USA
- The match is listed for on Court 1
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 14:31 · Europe/BucharestColumbus Open match listingwww.tennis.com · 27 Sep 2026
The single head-to-head gives Rybakov the only direct competitive reference between the two, and he won it. That meeting came in February 2024 at a lower-tier ITF event, well before Forbes reached his current career-high ranking of No. 741 in July 2026. Because it is more than two years old and both players have since moved to a different level of the sport, it works mainly as a familiarity marker rather than a current form guide.
- Rybakov leads the head-to-head 1-0
- The win came at ITF USA F4 in February 2024
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 14:31 · Europe/BucharestScoreGo match pagescorego-app.com · 27 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alex Rybakov

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

−1.7ppshort

Rybakov is higher ranked, has a stronger first-set record and won their only meeting, so he is the more likely match winner.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Rybakov is higher ranked, has a stronger first-set record and won their only meeting, so he is the more likely match winner.
- Rybakov is ranked 511, Forbes 763.
- Rybakov leads the head-to-head 1-0.
- Rybakov has won 9 of 12 first sets on hard this sample; Forbes 5 of 14.
- Rybakov has played more recently, on 21 Sep 2026, while Forbes last played 25 Aug 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlex RybakovEstimated chance60%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average is just above 9.5, and recent first sets have often gone past nine games.
- Forbes's first sets average 9.79 games.
- Rybakov's first sets average 9.33 games.
- Combined first-set average is about 9.56 games.
- Recent first sets for both often reached 10 or more games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have often gone past 22.5 games, especially Forbes's three-set matches.
- Forbes's hard matches average 22.29 total games.
- Rybakov's hard matches average 22.42 total games.
- Rybakov's last six hard matches averaged 22.8 games.
- Forbes's last six hard matches averaged 25.3 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Forbes's second sets tend to be long, and the combined average is above 9.5.
- Forbes's second sets average 10.14 games.
- Rybakov's second sets average 9.17 games.
- Combined second-set average is about 9.66 games.
- Forbes's recent second sets often reached 10 or more games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Rybakov starts sets much more strongly than Forbes and is more likely to take the opening set.
- Rybakov has won 9 of 12 first sets on hard.
- Forbes has won 5 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Rybakov averages 5.75 games won in first sets; Forbes 4.64.
- Rybakov leads the head-to-head 1-0.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlex RybakovEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most completed hard-court matches for both players ended in straight sets, and Rybakov's wins have been straight-set wins.
- Rybakov's hard matches average 2.42 sets.
- Forbes's hard matches average 2.29 sets.
- Combined, 17 of 26 hard matches in this sample ended in straight sets.
- Rybakov's five hard-court wins were all 2-0.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rybakov's second-set record is more balanced than Forbes's, giving him a small advantage in the second set.
- Rybakov has a 6-6 second-set record on hard.
- Forbes has a 5-9 second-set record on hard.
- Rybakov averages 4.5 games won in second sets; Forbes 4.71.
- Rybakov's second-set games lost average is 4.67.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlex RybakovEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rybakov's hard-court wins have all been in straight sets, and his strong first-set record supports a 2-0 win.
- Rybakov's five hard-court wins were all 2-0.
- Rybakov has won 9 of 12 first sets on hard.
- Forbes has lost 7 of 14 hard matches 0-2.
- Rybakov is ranked 511 to Forbes's 763.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAlex Rybakov 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most completed hard matches for both players did not feature a tiebreak, and many sets end before 6-6.
- Forbes has had 8 of 14 hard matches without a tiebreak.
- Rybakov has had 9 of 12 hard matches without a tiebreak.
- Combined, 17 of 26 hard matches in this sample had no tiebreak.
- Rybakov's first sets average only 9.33 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance63%

Previous match context available

Matthew Forbes

7W 8L

7-5 7-5#356Aidan Mayo

6-2 1-6 6-2#208Tristan Boyer

6-1 7-5#449Spencer Johnson

7-6(1) 6-3#182Bernard Tomic

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3#456Jie Cui

6-3 4-6 6-4#444Sebastian Gorzny

6-1 1-0 ret.—Aniss Rafiq

6-3 6-4#453Alafia Ayeni

7-6(7) 6-1#501Trevor Svajda

6-3 2-6 6-0#746Evan Bynoe

6-4 7-6(7)#456Jie Cui

6-4 7-6(3)#465Quinn Vandecasteele

6-3 7-6(3)#893William Grant

6-1 6-1#359Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-2 6-2#560Aidan Mchugh

Alex Rybakov

6W 9L

1-6 6-3 6-4#416Ozan Baris 6-3 6-4#748Karue Sell

7-6(6) 6-3#606Ryan Seggerman

6-4 6-2#639Dan Martin

5-7 6-4 6-3#863Oliver Bonding

7-5 6-3#262Charles Broom

6-1 7-6(0)#542Fares Zakaria

6-2 3-6 6-1#301Oliver Tarvet

7-5 6-2—Billy Blaydes

6-3 6-3#895Matthew Summers

0-6 6-3 7-6(3)#900Charlie Robertson

3-6 6-4 6-3#184Andre Ilagan

6-4 7-6(8)#346Tung-Lin Wu

7-6(3) 5-2 ret.#500Hiroki Moriya

1-6 6-1 6-2#663Bruno Kuzuhara

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MFMatthew ForbesForbes

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Alex RybakovRybakovAR

Alex Rybakov carries the stronger recent form — Matthew Forbes's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In54.5%+17.2pp71.7%

1st Serve Won73.8%+3.6pp70.2%

2nd Serve Won49.6%—50.0%

Aces / Match5.2+1.36.5

Double Faults / Match4.41.9 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.5%+2.4pp37.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.2%+10.8pp32.4%

Break Pts Saved63.9%+5.1pp69.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.4%+1.4pp50.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

54.5%1st Serve In+17.2pp71.7%

73.8%1st Serve Won+3.6pp70.2%

49.6%2nd Serve Won—50.0%

5.2Aces / Match+1.36.5

4.4Double Faults / Match1.9 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

35.5%Return Pts Won+2.4pp37.9%

Pressure · 1–1

43.2%Break Pts Converted+10.8pp32.4%

63.9%Break Pts Saved+5.1pp69.0%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won+1.4pp50.8%