WTA AnkaraFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Teodora Kostovic #150Serbia2Fangran Tian #257China0

Sets 6-0 · 7-5Fri 25 Sept 2026, 09:17 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions1–0100%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTeodora Kostovic · 107 places

Teodora Kostovic

Serbia

Serbian right-hander born 28 June 2007. Her recorded career-high ranking is No. 146, reached in July 2026; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #150
Peak ranking: #146 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Fangran Tian

China

Chinese player born in August 2003. Public ranking records place her career high at No. 361 in August 2024; no reliable preferred-surface declaration was located.

Current ranking: #257
Peak ranking: #361 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Ankara quarterfinal: Kostovic, 101 places higher and a straight-sets winner twice this week, faces a Tian who lands more first serves and returns at least as well.

Kostovic to win is the likelier outcome, but 1.3 asks for more than her case supports. Tian to win at 3.5, rated around 32% against the 28.6% the price implies, is the one worth taking.

Context

Kostovic arrives having won four of her last five completed matches, all four of those wins in straight sets, and has taken 22 of 32 sets across her last 15 matches (10 wins, 5 losses).
Kostovic's serve separates the two players: 68.4% of first-serve points won and 4.0 aces per match, against Tian's 59.7% and 0.6. She also wins 58% of games across the sample, which is the base for her favouritism here. The caveat is that she lands only 58.9% of first serves, and Tian's return game has been marginally the better of the two over the same window.
- Last 15 matches (10 wins, 5 losses): 68.4% of first-serve points won, 355 of 519, across the 14 matches with serve data.
- 4.0 aces per match (56 in 14 matches) and 2.6 double faults per match (37 in 14 matches).
- 58.9% of first serves in play (519 of 881) and 53.1% of total points won (952 of 1,792 in 14 matches).
Kostović has won both of her Ankara matches in straight sets and has taken four of her last five completed matches. The two opponents she beat this week are ranked outside the top 240, and the defeat that ended her previous event was a 6-3 6-4 loss to Kaitlin Quevedo, then around No. 90, in the São Paulo quarterfinal. Against Tian, ranked outside the top 250, the week's evidence does not settle whether beating lower-ranked opponents has prepared her for a semifinal place.
- Round of 16, : Kostović defeated Elena Ruxandra Bertea to reach the quarterfinals of the WTA 125 Türk Telekom Ankara Open.
- Opening round, : Kostović beat Carolyn Ansari 6-3 6-1 at the same tournament.
- The WTA 125 Türk Telekom Ankara Open is played at the Topspin Tenis Akademisi in Ankara.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Tian's hard-court results in the past month have been uneven, with a 6-1 6-1 loss to Han Shi in September and a defeat by a player ranked outside the top 500 alongside straight-sets wins in both of her Ankara matches. She comes from the American college game, where she won the 2023 NCAA singles title, and her WTA 125 experience is limited, with a round-of-16 exit in Philadelphia in late August her previous best result at this level. That is the limitation on this run: she is ranked outside the top 250 and the last eight is a stage she had not reached in her previous 125 appearance this swing.
- : Tian won her round-of-16 match in straight sets at the WTA 125 Türk Telekom Ankara Open to reach the quarterfinals.
- 21 September: Tian beat Aliona Falei 6-2 7-6(2) in her opening match at the event.
- Tian is the 2023 NCAA singles champion.
- Tian was named among the entrants in the Ankara 125 field in the days before the main draw began.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest
The São Paulo run was the 19-year-old's breakthrough at WTA level and the first time her progress showed in a tour-level draw, and she has since added two straight-sets wins at WTA 125 level in Ankara. It matters here as evidence that her current form is not confined to one event or one tournament tier, although that run ended in a straight-sets loss to Quevedo and this quarterfinal is at a lower-category event than São Paulo. The step down in level also means the standard of the field around her is not the one she met in Brazil.
- : Kostović's 6-4 6-1 win over ninth seed Darja Semenistaja at the São Paulo Open made her the first player through to that tournament's quarterfinals.
- : Kaitlin Quevedo beat Kostović 6-3 6-4 in the São Paulo quarterfinals.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic is higher ranked, in better recent form, and has stronger serve statistics.
- Kostovic is ranked 159, Tian 260.
- Kostovic has won 10 of her last 15 matches; Tian has won 7 of 15.
- Kostovic has won her two Ankara matches in straight sets, dropping only eight games.
- Kostovic leads in first-serve points won (68.4% vs 59.7%) and second-serve points won (50.3% vs 44.0%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTeodora KostovicEstimated chance68%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average is just above the line, with Kostovic the main source.
- Kostovic averages 4.0 aces per match; Tian averages 0.6.
- Combined average is 4.6 aces per match.
- Kostovic's first-serve percentage is 58.9%, so she misses some first serves.
- Tian rarely hits aces, so the total depends mainly on Kostovic.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is slightly above the line.
- Kostovic averages 2.6 double faults per match; Tian averages 2.2.
- Combined average is 4.8 double faults per match.
- Kostovic's second-serve points won is 50.3%, suggesting some serve vulnerability.
- Tian's second-serve points won is 44.0%, also vulnerable.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance54%

Previous match context available

Teodora Kostovic

10W 5L

6-3 6-1#282Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-3 6-1#248Carolyn Ansari

6-3 6-4#90Kaitlin Quevedo

6-4 6-1#122Darja Semenistaja

6-2 6-4#818Victoria Luiza Barros

4-6 6-4 6-4#253Arantxa Rus

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#165Martyna Kubka

6-4 6-0#240Vivian Wolff

6-3 7-6(5)#161Anna Siskova

6-2 6-4#410Julie Pastikova

6-4 6-4#772Kali Supova

6-4 6-0#889Arabella Koller

6-4 6-4#130Lucia Bronzetti

6-2 6-3#231Jennifer Ruggeri

7-6(4) 6-1#154Ekaterine Gorgodze

Fangran Tian

7W 8L

6-2 7-6(2)#220Aliona Falei

6-1 6-1#242Han Shi

1-6 7-5 7-5#510Patcharin Cheapchadej

3-6 6-4 6-3#303Zongyu Li

6-3 6-1#61Tereza Valentova

5-7 6-3 6-1#332Lucciana Perez Alarcon

6-3 7-6(2)#741Mayu Crossley

2-6 6-3 7-5#299Savannah Broadus

6-3 6-3#330Kylie Collins

6-2 5-7 6-2#397Amandine Hesse

6-3 6-1#516Viola Turini

6-0 6-2#647Belle Thompson

6-2 6-4#81Alina Korneeva

7-5 6-3#381Ariana Arseneault

6-2 6-1#860Diana Marcinkevica

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TKTeodora KostovicKostovic

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Fangran TianTianFT

Teodora Kostovic carries the stronger recent form — Fangran Tian's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1558.9%+6.9pp65.8%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1568.4%+8.7pp59.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1550.3%+6.3pp44.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.0+3.40.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.60.4 fewer2.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1545.6%—46.0%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1549.5%—49.3%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1563.0%+7.2pp55.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1553.1%+3.0pp50.1%

Serve · 3–2

58.9%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+6.9pp65.8%

68.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+8.7pp59.7%

50.3%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.3pp44.0%

4.0Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+3.40.6

2.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.4 fewer2.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

45.6%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—46.0%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

49.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15—49.3%

63.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+7.2pp55.8%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.0pp50.1%