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Predictions graded

Teodora Kostovic #150Serbia2Elena Ruxandra Bertea #282Romania0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Thu 24 Sept 2026, 09:11 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions9–190%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTeodora Kostovic · 132 places

Teodora Kostovic

Serbia

Serbian right-hander born 28 June 2007. Her recorded career-high ranking is No. 146, reached in July 2026; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #150
Peak ranking: #146 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Elena Ruxandra Bertea

Romania

Romanian player ranked No. 282 in the structured match record. Her tracked recent results are almost entirely on clay, with the Ankara hard-court opener her only hard-court match in that sample, and no reliable age, career-high ranking, preferred surface, hand or height information was found.

Current ranking: #282
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 15:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Kostovic is the higher-ranked player and her opening win was far cleaner, but she is 3-3 on hard courts in this window while Bertea needed a deciding tiebreak to survive round one.

Kostovic should still come through, most likely in two sets. Bertea at 4.25 to win, 3.3 or 3.5 to take a set, and a three-set match at 3 all offer something; Kostovic's 1.22 and 1.55 do not.

Context

Kostovic's week in São Paulo is the strongest WTA-level form in her recent record: she beat Darja Semenistaja, ranked No. 122 in the match record, then lost in straight sets to Kaitlin Quevedo, ranked No. 90. It matters for this fixture because she arrives directly from that run and has since won her opening match here without dropping a set. The specific limitation is that the run ended one round short of her first career WTA semifinal, so it identifies a player who can reach the last eight at this level rather than one who has closed out a deep run.
- Kaitlin Quevedo beat Teodora Kostovic 6-3 6-4 in the São Paulo 250 quarterfinals .
- A Serbian report on that defeat described Kostovic falling short of a first career WTA semifinal.
- The tracked match record shows a 6-4 6-1 win over Darja Semenistaja in the round before the quarterfinal.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Both players won on the same match day, but Kostovic dropped only four games against Carolyn Ansari while Bertea needed a deciding tiebreak to close out Marie Vogt. That two-set against three-set split is the clearest asymmetry in how the two have arrived at this round. It carries less weight than a back-to-back turnaround would, because this round falls after a clear rest day, and only the set counts are established here rather than match duration or any on-court treatment.
- Teodora Kostovic beat Carolyn Ansari 6-3 6-1 in the Ankara Open first round .
- Bertea's opening win over Marie Vogt went to a third-set tiebreak, 6-1 2-6 7-6(5).
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Bertea's serve and return pull in opposite directions, and that split shapes how her matches tend to run.
That is the shape of her route here: she surrenders games on serve and has to prise them back with her return, which is why sets against her stay close even when she is the lower-ranked player. The same 15-match window ending 22 September 2026 shows she saved just 40% of the break points she faced, the number most exposed against a server as steady as Kostovic. Her hard-court record in the sample is a single match, so these figures carry more weight than any surface split for her.
- Last-15 window: 7-8 in 15 tracked matches, most recent tracked match 22 September 2026.
- Second-serve points won: 37.6% (128/340); double faults: 71 in 15 matches (4.7 per match).
- Break points saved: 40% (46/115); break points converted: 52.9% (73/138); return points won: 49.7% (470/946).
Kostovic's hard-court matches this autumn have often lasted longer than a routine two-set win.
Four of the six finished in two sets and two went the distance, which produces the 21.3-game average and a 2.33-set average across the sample. For this second round it means a two-set Kostovic win is the most common single outcome without being the automatic one. The window is six matches in one month, so it describes a short stretch of form rather than a settled hard-court profile.
- Hard-court sample: six completed matches from 3 August to 22 September 2026, record 3-3.
- Scorelines: three 2-0 wins, one 0-2 loss, two 1-2 losses.
- First sets average 9.8 games, second sets 8.7, match total 21.3; total sets average 2.33.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic is the higher-ranked, better-serving player and her hard-court wins have come cleanly against opponents around or above Bertea's level.
- Hard-court Last-15: Kostovic 3-3, with straight-set wins over Ansari (248), Semenistaja (122) and Barros (818)
- Bertea is ranked 282 and has only one tracked hard-court match
- Kostovic won 70.2% of first-serve points on hard; Bertea wins 37.6% of second-serve points overall
- Kostovic total points won on hard 51.5%, Bertea 50.0% overall
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTeodora KostovicEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Half of Kostovic's recent hard matches finished within four games either way, and Bertea's own opener was tight.
- Kostovic's average hard-court game margin is +2
- Bertea won her opener by a 15-13 game margin
- Kostovic's two 1-2 losses ended with margins of 2 and 5 games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostElena Ruxandra Bertea +4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The favourite has produced several quick opening sets, and Bertea's serve can be broken early.
- Only three of Kostovic's six hard first sets passed 9.5 games
- Bertea's last opening set had seven games
- Kostovic's first sets include a 6-2 and a 6-3
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic has closed second sets quickly in several matches, and Bertea's serve gives away games.
- Kostovic's hard second sets average 8.7 games
- She has won set two 6-1 twice on hard
- Bertea lost her only hard second set 2-6
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If the favourite wins in straight sets as she has been doing, the match total should stay under the line.
- Kostovic's three hard-court wins produced 16, 17 and 18 games
- Her hard-court sets average 9.8 games in the first and 8.7 in the second
- Bertea has lost matches by wide game margins on clay
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic's second-set record on hard is solid and Bertea's serve is most vulnerable as the match wears on.
- Kostovic has won set two in 4 of 6 hard matches
- Bertea lost her only hard-court second set 2-6
- Bertea wins 37.6% of second-serve points overall
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTeodora KostovicEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The higher-ranked player has started well on this surface and holds a clear serve advantage in the opening set.
- Kostovic has won set one in 4 of 6 hard matches
- Bertea won her only tracked hard-court first set 6-1
- Kostovic's hard-court first-serve points won is 70.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTeodora KostovicEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The higher-ranked player has been winning her hard-court matches without dropping a set, which favours a two-set finish.
- Three of Kostovic's six hard matches finished 2-0
- Kostovic wins 57.1% of her hard-court sets
- Bertea has played one hard-court match in the sample
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The tracked matches mostly finished without a tiebreak, and both players break serve often enough to avoid one.
- Five of Kostovic's six hard matches had no tiebreak
- No tiebreak occurred in her six hard second sets
- Bertea lost 6 of her last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic's serve produces regular aces on hard, and Bertea showed a higher ace count in her only hard-court match.
- Kostovic averages 5.3 aces per hard match
- Bertea hit 7 aces in her Ankara opener
- Bertea averages 1.6 aces per match overall
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A straight-set finish would likely keep the combined double-fault count below the line.
- Kostovic's 3.0 double faults per hard match came across matches averaging 102 minutes
- Bertea's 4.7 per match is drawn mostly from clay matches
- Bertea's hard average is around two double faults per set
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Teodora Kostovic

10W 5L

6-3 6-1#248Carolyn Ansari

6-3 6-4#90Kaitlin Quevedo

6-4 6-1#122Darja Semenistaja

6-2 6-4#818Victoria Luiza Barros

4-6 6-4 6-4#253Arantxa Rus

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#165Martyna Kubka

6-4 6-0#240Vivian Wolff

6-3 7-6(5)#161Anna Siskova

6-2 6-4#410Julie Pastikova

6-4 6-4#772Kali Supova

6-4 6-0#889Arabella Koller

6-4 6-4#130Lucia Bronzetti

6-2 6-3#231Jennifer Ruggeri

7-6(4) 6-1#154Ekaterine Gorgodze

6-3 6-0#140Tamara Zidansek

Elena Ruxandra Bertea

7W 8L

6-1 2-6 7-6(5)#457Marie Vogt

6-1 6-0#568Antonia Stoyanov

7-5 6-4#364Lidia Encheva

6-1 6-1#348Varvara Panshina

6-0 6-0—Havah Kaur Kaler

6-4 6-1#339Rada Zolotareva

6-3 6-3#264Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

6-2 6-3#197Barbora Palicova

6-3 6-2#520Margaux Maquet

6-3 6-1#300Martina Trevisan

7-6(1) 7-5#206Carole Monnet

6-3 6-3#287Elena Malygina

6-3 6-4#300Martina Trevisan

6-3 5-7 6-4#111Julia Grabher

6-2 6-3#324Gina Feistel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TKTeodora KostovicKostovic

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Elena Ruxandra BerteaBerteaEB

Teodora Kostovic carries the stronger recent form — Elena Ruxandra Bertea's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In59.4%+1.0pp60.4%

1st Serve Won68.2%+9.6pp58.6%

2nd Serve Won50.4%+12.8pp37.6%

Aces / Match3.9+2.31.6

Double Faults / Match2.52.2 fewer4.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won46.4%+3.3pp49.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted51.3%+1.6pp52.9%

Break Pts Saved63.6%+23.6pp40.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.6%+3.6pp50.0%

Serve · 4–1

59.4%1st Serve In+1.0pp60.4%

68.2%1st Serve Won+9.6pp58.6%

50.4%2nd Serve Won+12.8pp37.6%

3.9Aces / Match+2.31.6

2.5Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer4.7

Return · 0–1

46.4%Return Pts Won+3.3pp49.7%

Pressure · 1–1

51.3%Break Pts Converted+1.6pp52.9%

63.6%Break Pts Saved+23.6pp40.0%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won+3.6pp50.0%

Teodora Kostovic #150Serbia2Elena Ruxandra Bertea #282Romania0

Player Profiles

Teodora Kostovic

Elena Ruxandra Bertea

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Elena Ruxandra Bertea

Elena Ruxandra Bertea

Elena Ruxandra Bertea

Teodora Kostovic 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Teodora Kostovic

Elena Ruxandra Bertea

Stat Battle