ChinaATP HangzhouFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Mattia Bellucci #80Italy0Kamil Majchrzak #67Poland2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Thu 24 Sept 2026, 08:42 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–736%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKamil Majchrzak · 13 places

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

Italian left-hander whose ATP career-high ranking is No. 63, achieved in July 2025. Official player profiles list hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #80
Peak ranking: #63 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Kamil Majchrzak

Poland

ATP lists Majchrzak's career-high ranking as No. 61, reached in September 2025. The specified searches did not provide a reliable current injury or decline signal for August 2026.

Current ranking: #67
Peak ranking: #61 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 15:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players with losing hard-court records in this window meet for the first time in Hangzhou, and Bellucci's numbers hold up far better — Majchrzak has lost five of his last seven completed hard-court matches in straight sets.

Bellucci is the likelier winner, and at 2.25 he is value; 2.10 for him to take the first set also holds up. Majchrzak at 1.65 to win the match, or to take the opening set, does not.

Context

Majchrzak's last two matches were Davis Cup singles rubbers in Brisbane, a three-set win over James Duckworth and the deciding 6-3 6-3 defeat by Alex de Minaur the next day. That leaves him a three-day turnaround with intercontinental travel before a first-round match in eastern China, while Bellucci has not competed since the US Open on 3 September. How quickly Majchrzak resets from a best-of-three tie on Australian hard courts is the main live variable in this opener. The Brisbane defeat is limited evidence about his level, coming against a top-10 opponent, and no fitness problem has been reported for either player.
- Majchrzak beat James Duckworth 2-6 6-3 6-3 in the second singles rubber
- Alex de Minaur beat Majchrzak 6-3 6-3 to seal Australia's 3-1 win over Poland
- Majchrzak was Poland's leading singles player in the tie
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Bellucci's most recent match was a 6-0 6-1 6-1 second-round loss to Taylor Fritz in New York, three weeks before this fixture. He had won his opening round in straight sets days earlier, so the collapse came inside the same event and against a top-10 seed. With no competition since, this match is the first evidence of whether that scoreline was one poor day or a more durable dip. Facing a top-10 seed in the second round is a demanding draw, which limits how much the result says about his level against an opponent ranked outside the top 70.
- Lost 6-0 6-1 6-1 to Taylor Fritz in the second round at the US Open
- Won two games in the match, after a straight-sets first-round win on 1 September
- Said shortly before his opening match that his level had risen and he was ready to make the most of the opportunity at Flushing Meadows
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Majchrzak's run to his first ATP title at 's-Hertogenbosch in June 2026, including three wins over top-10 opponents in the same week, is the clearest evidence of the level he can produce inside a single fast-court event. It explains why he carries the eighth seeding here while ranked No. 73. The caveat is that the title came on grass two months earlier and his hard-court results since have been uneven, with a straight-sets win and a straight-sets defeat in New York, so the ceiling he showed in June is not the form he brings into this match by default.
- Won his first ATP title at 's-Hertogenbosch in June 2026
- Beat three top-10 opponents during the title week
- His grass-court title run in June included wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Kamil Majchrzak has been a slow starter on hard courts in this window, handing opponents an early foothold.
Majchrzak has given away the opening set in six of seven completed hard-court matches since late July, and five of those seven ended in straight-set defeats. That means an early break against him is hard to recover from, and the first set here is a real test of whether the slow starts are a small-sample quirk or a habit. Bellucci, by contrast, won the opening set in three of his five completed hard-court matches in August.
- Seven completed hard-court best-of-three matches from 28 July to 20 September 2026
- Set one record: one win, six losses
- Averages 3.9 games won and 5.9 lost in opening sets
- Five of the seven matches ended in straight-set defeats

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Bellucci has been the steadier hard-court player in this window and arrives with three weeks rest, while Majchrzak has mostly dropped straight sets on this surface after a long trip from Brisbane.
- Hard-court sets won: Bellucci 47.4% (9/19) vs Majchrzak 36.4% (8/22)
- Hard-court games won: Bellucci 49.4% (89/180) vs Majchrzak 47.3% (105/222)
- Majchrzak lost 0-2 in five of seven completed hard best-of-three matches
- Bellucci last played 3 September, Majchrzak played two Davis Cup singles in Brisbane on 19-20 September
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMattia BellucciEstimated chance53%

Games2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Majchrzak has not often won by four or more games, so Bellucci only needs to stay within three games or win.
- Majchrzak's recent hard losses came by -6, -5, -3 and -3 games
- Majchrzak's last two wins were by +9 and +2 games
- Bellucci's only heavy negative margin was -16 against Fritz
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMattia Bellucci +3.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around five games each in second sets on hard, putting the combined total above the line.
- Bellucci hard set two averages 5.2 games won, 5.4 lost
- Majchrzak hard set two averages 5.1 won, 5.9 lost
- Combined second-set average is about 10.8 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average sits above nine and a half games, helped by Bellucci's long opening sets.
- Bellucci hard set one averages 5.8 games won, 5.2 lost
- Majchrzak hard set one averages 3.9 won, 5.9 lost
- Combined first-set average is about 10.3 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Majchrzak's recent hard-court matches have been short, and the combined average sits just below the line.
- Majchrzak's hard matches average 22.0 total games
- His hard setEvidence includes five straight-set defeats
- Combined hard-court average across both players is roughly 24.2 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 24.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Bellucci has usually finished with a positive game margin in his hard-court wins while Majchrzak has lost the game count in most recent matches.
- Bellucci's recent hard game margins: +12, +6, +2, +1 in wins and -16, -2 in losses
- Majchrzak's recent hard margins: +9, +2 in wins and -6, -5, -3, -3 in losses
- Bellucci has won 49.4% of hard games against Majchrzak's 47.3%
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMattia Bellucci +0.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Majchrzak has started slowly on hard courts, losing six of seven opening sets, while Bellucci has a winning first-set record.
- Bellucci hard set one: three wins, two losses
- Majchrzak hard set one: one win, six losses
- Majchrzak averages 3.9 games won to 5.9 lost in the opening set on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMattia BellucciEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Majchrzak's recent hard-court results have mostly ended in two sets, and only one of his seven went the distance.
- Majchrzak's hard setEvidence scorelines: five 0-2, one 2-1, one 2-0
- Combined hard-court set average for the two players is about 2.35
- Bellucci lost in straight sets to Fritz in his most recent match
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are close in second sets on hard, with Majchrzak's poorer record giving Bellucci a small pull.
- Bellucci hard set two: two wins, three losses
- Majchrzak hard set two: two wins, five losses
- Bellucci hard second-serve points won is 49.3%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMattia BellucciEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Short Majchrzak matches reduce the number of service games and keep the combined aces near or below the line.
- Bellucci 7.7 aces per hard match, Majchrzak 7.9
- Majchrzak's hard matches average 2.14 sets
- Combined aces per match sit around 15.6 across full-length matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 15.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players miss a lot of first serves and Bellucci's double-fault rate is high, so the combined total often reaches seven.
- Bellucci averages 4.0 double faults per hard match (28 in 7)
- Majchrzak averages 3.3 per hard match (23 in 7)
- Bellucci's hard first-serve percentage is 60.7%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Majchrzak's recent matches often finish in two sets, which limits the opportunity for a tiebreak.
- Six of twelve combined hard best-of-three matches had no tiebreak
- Majchrzak's hard matches average only 2.14 sets
- Combined match games average is about 24.2
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance52%

Prediction history

Mattia Bellucci: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Mattia Bellucci matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mattia Bellucci5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·58%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

58%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·72%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

Mattia Bellucci to win

72%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

2 Jun·Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·62%

Missed

2 Jun 2026

Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

62%probability

Alex Bolt won

Missed

24 May·ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

24 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Quentin Halys won

Missed

11 May·ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

11 May 2026

ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Martin Landaluce won

Missed

Previous match context available

Mattia Bellucci

8W 7L

6-0 6-1 6-1#10Taylor Fritz

6-4 6-2 6-0#114Zsombor Piros

2-6 6-4 6-2#20Luciano Darderi

6-4 6-7(3) 6-1#62Martin Landaluce

7-5 2-6 7-6(5)#15Jakub Mensik

7-6(0) 7-6(4)#81Zachary Svajda

7-5 6-3#51Sebastian Baez

7-6(5) 6-7(1) 6-4#33Ugo Humbert

4-6 6-4 6-3#47Raphael Collignon

7-6(6) 6-1#21Alexander Bublik

6-7(5) 7-5 6-3#165Alex Bolt

6-4 6-3#351Mikhail Kukushkin

5-7 7-5 7-5#10Taylor Fritz

7-5 6-7(4) 6-2#54Yannick Hanfmann

6-2 6-7(5) 6-1#29Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Kamil Majchrzak

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#9Alex De Minaur

2-6 6-3 6-3#65James Duckworth

6-4 4-6 7-6(3) 6-2#19Valentin Vacherot

6-3 6-3 6-3#76Hamad Medjedovic

6-4 7-6(7)#90Benjamin Bonzi

6-4 7-6(5)#115Christopher O'Connell

6-4 6-4#254Gael Monfils

6-3 6-4#10Taylor Fritz

7-5 7-6(4)#18Tommy Paul

2-6 6-2 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#81Zachary Svajda

6-3 7-5 7-5#32Alejandro Tabilo

7-5 7-6(4)#23Jiri Lehecka

6-3 2-6 7-6(5)#9Alex De Minaur

7-6(4) 6-1#6Daniil Medvedev

6-4 6-3#5Felix Auger Aliassime

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMattia BellucciBellucci

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzakKM

Mattia Bellucci carries the stronger recent form — Kamil Majchrzak's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1562.3%+1.9pp60.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1572.2%+0.8pp71.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1556.2%+1.3pp54.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/158.4+0.97.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/153.71.4 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1535.8%—35.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1537.7%+4.0pp33.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1567.0%+6.0pp61.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1551.0%+0.8pp50.2%

Serve · 4–1

62.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+1.9pp60.4%

72.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+0.8pp71.4%

56.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+1.3pp54.9%

8.4Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+0.97.5

3.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/151.4 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

35.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15—35.9%

Pressure · 2–0

37.7%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+4.0pp33.7%

67.0%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+6.0pp61.0%

Points · 1–0

51.0%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+0.8pp50.2%

Mattia Bellucci

Kamil Majchrzak

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci +0.5

Mattia Bellucci 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mattia Bellucci

Kamil Majchrzak

Stat Battle