Iryna Shymanovich #205Belarus00 – 2Katie Volynets #93United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Volynets' superior recent form (73% win rate) and much higher first-serve percentage (71.5% vs 57.5%) give her a clear serve/return structural edge, while Shymanovich's hard-court sample is too small (2-0) to override the overall last15 gap.

• Volynets last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Shymanovich 8-7 (53.3%)
• Volynets last15 first serve in 71.5% vs Shymanovich 57.5%, giving her a structural edge in holding serve
• Volynets last15 break points saved 59.5% vs Shymanovich 56.4%, and return points won 46.2% vs 45.4%
• H2H: Volynets won 6-3 6-0 on clay in 2024, but limited relevance on hard

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

With both players showing decent return stats and Volynets' recent hard-court set going to 7-5, the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.

• Shymanovich last15 average set games 9.9, Volynets 9.3
• Volynets' hard-court set vs Golubic went to 12 games (7-5)
• Both players have return points won around 45-46%, indicating potential for breaks

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Volynets' high first-serve percentage gives her a better chance to start strong, and her overall form edge suggests she is more likely to take the opening set against a qualifier with limited hard-court evidence.

• Volynets last15 first serve points won 61.6% vs Shymanovich 63.6%, but Volynets gets more first serves in (71.5% vs 57.5%)
• Shymanovich last15 first set win conversion 87% career, but recent hard-court data too thin to confirm
• Volynets won her only hard-court set in last15 (vs Golubic) and has a 84% career first-set win conversion

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average well under 3 aces per match in recent form and career, making a combined total over 5.5 unlikely even in a three-setter.

• Shymanovich last15 aces per match 1.7, Volynets 1.7
• Shymanovich career aces 516 in 496 matches (1.04 per match), Volynets 392 in 457 (0.86 per match)
• Hard-court specific: Shymanovich 1.0 ace per match in last15, Volynets 2.0 but only 1 match sample

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Shymanovich's high double-fault rate (3.7 per match) alone could push the total over 5.5, especially if the match goes three sets, though Volynets' low rate keeps confidence low.

• Shymanovich last15 double faults per match 3.7, Volynets 1.6
• Shymanovich career double faults 1114 in 496 matches (2.25 per match), Volynets 889 in 457 (1.95 per match)
• Hard-court: Shymanovich 2.5 DF per match in last15 (2 matches), Volynets 3.0 (1 match)