United StatesSan Diego - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Stefan Kozlov #292United States0Colton Smith #205United States2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageColton Smith · 87 places

Stefan Kozlov

United States

Ranks No. 292 and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand, listed at 183 cm. Age, career-high ranking, career-high date and preferred surface are not confirmed by the available profile data.

Current ranking: #292
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Colton Smith

United States

Ranks No. 205 and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand, listed at 183 cm. Age, career-high ranking, career-high date and preferred surface are not confirmed by the available profile data.

Current ranking: #205
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Smith, ranked 205, is the likelier winner over Kozlov (292) in San Diego, most probably across three sets, with his serve the difference.

The 1.25 on Smith asks for an 80% chance and offers nothing; the 1.3 on him to take the first set is no better. The potential value sits with Kozlov at 3.5 to win the match, 3.2 for the first set and 7.0 for a 2-1 win.

Context

Kozlov has needed a third set in six of his last eight hard-court matches, and those six deciders split two wins to four defeats.
That record gives him plenty of chances to stay in this match, but his recent deciders have usually ended in defeat, so a long match is not automatically good news for him.
- Kozlov's hard-court sample is eight completed matches from 14 July to 15 September 2026
- Six of those eight went to a deciding set, an average of 2.75 sets per match
- His 1-2 scoreline appeared four times, with 2-1 twice and 0-2 twice
Smith won six of those ten first sets, so the long opening sets have more often fallen his way.
He is the more likely player to edge an opening set, but sets that reach ten games can turn on one or two points, and his second sets in the same sample were a losing 4-6.
- Smith's hard-court sample covers ten matches from 14 July to 28 August 2026
- First sets averaged 10.9 games, including three tiebreaks, and he won six of ten
- Five of the ten matches featured at least one tiebreak; second sets averaged 9.9 games and he won four of ten
Smith's first serve is the biggest single weapon either player has shown in these 15-match samples.
The serve should give him cheaper holds than Kozlov manages, but 61.1% of first serves in play and a 47.5% return on second serves leave room for Kozlov's return game to keep the sets close.
- 15 tracked matches include 85 aces (5.7 per match) and 62 double faults (4.1 per match)
- First-serve points won: 68.0%; first serves in: 61.1%; second-serve points won: 47.5%
It was Kozlov's most recent completed match, decided by a third-set tiebreak.
He matched a higher-ranked opponent game for game across three sets, which fits his pattern of long matches, but the result was still a defeat and close three-set losses have been a recurring outcome in his hard-court record.
- 15 September 2026: Kozlov lost 1-2 to Darwin Blanch, 3-6, 6-2, 6-7
- Games finished 15-15 in a match decided by a third-set tiebreak
- Blanch was ranked 166, Kozlov 292

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Smith has the higher ranking, the better hard-court record and the stronger first-serve and ace numbers, which should give him the clearer hold games in this matchup.
- Smith is ranked 205, Kozlov 292
- On hard court Smith is 4-6 with 69.2% first-serve points won; Kozlov is 2-6 with 61.9%
- Smith averages 6.4 aces per hard-court match, Kozlov 1.9
- Kozlov leads on return points won (39.3% vs 38.6%) and break points converted (39.4% vs 30.4%)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonColton SmithEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Smith's first sets regularly reach ten games or more, and his serve keeps opening sets tight.
- Smith averages 10.9 games in first sets on hard court
- Smith has played three first-set tiebreaks in 10 hard-court matches
- Kozlov averages 9.5 games in first sets on hard court
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both men frequently reaching a third set, the total games figure sits right around this line with a slight lean to the over.
- Smith's hard-court matches average 28.6 total games, Kozlov's 25.6
- Both players' hard-court sets averages are above 2.75
- Kozlov averages 142 minutes per hard-court match, Smith 140
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 27.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kozlov's short second sets pull the combined average under this line, favouring the under.
- Kozlov averages 8.75 games in second sets on hard court
- Kozlov has lost more second sets than he has won on hard court
- Smith averages 9.9 games in second sets on hard court
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players routinely go the distance on hard courts, so a deciding set is the most likely shape of this match.
- Kozlov has gone to three sets in 6 of 8 hard-court matches
- Smith has gone to three sets in 8 of 10 hard-court matches
- Kozlov's hard-court sets average is 2.75, Smith's 2.8
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Smith starts sets better on this surface and his serve gives him more cheap points early, making him the likelier first-set winner.
- Smith has won 6 of 10 first sets on hard court, Kozlov 3 of 8
- Smith averages 5.8 games won in set one on hard court, Kozlov 4.6
- Smith has played three first-set tiebreaks in 10 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonColton SmithEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Smith's overall hard-court set numbers remain slightly better even though his second-set record is modest, so he holds a narrow edge.
- Smith has won 4 of 10 second sets on hard court, Kozlov 3 of 8
- Smith averages 4.6 games won and 5.3 lost in set two on hard court
- Smith's hard-court sets won rate is 46.4%, Kozlov's 36.4%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonColton SmithEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Smith's heavy serving alone approaches the line, and a third set would give him enough time to add to it.
- Smith averages 6.4 aces per hard-court match, Kozlov 1.9
- Both players' hard-court matches average over 2.75 sets
- Smith has served 64 aces in 10 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are broken often enough that most sets finish before six-all, making no tiebreak the slightly more likely outcome.
- Kozlov has had a tiebreak in only 2 of 8 hard-court matches
- Combined hard-court tiebreak rate is 7 of 18 matches
- Smith has had a tiebreak in 5 of 10 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined double-fault rate averages just below seven, so the under is marginally the better-supported side.
- Smith averages 4.5 double faults per hard-court match
- Kozlov averages 2.5 double faults per hard-court match
- Combined hard-court average is around 7.0 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance54%

Prediction history

Colton Smith: 4/5 recent winner projections matched

4 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Colton Smith matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Colton Smith5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#188Colton Smith1-3#143Michael Zheng

BetBugsColton Smith to win·58%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#188Colton Smith1-3#143Michael Zheng

Colton Smith to win

58%probability

Michael Zheng won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#239Andres Andrade1-2#177Colton Smith

BetBugsColton Smith to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#239Andres Andrade1-2#177Colton Smith

Colton Smith to win

62%probability

Colton Smith won

Matched

15 Jun·Dublin - Ireland

#200Clement Chidekh1-2#176Colton Smith

BetBugsColton Smith to win·62%

Matched

15 Jun 2026

Dublin - Ireland

#200Clement Chidekh1-2#176Colton Smith

Colton Smith to win

62%probability

Colton Smith won

Matched

31 May·Little Rock - USA

#335Andre Ilagan0-2#185Colton Smith

BetBugsColton Smith to win·65%

Matched

31 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#335Andre Ilagan0-2#185Colton Smith

Colton Smith to win

65%probability

Colton Smith won

Matched

27 May·Little Rock - USA

#186Colton Smith2-0#393Trevor Svajda

BetBugsColton Smith to win·62%

Matched

27 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#186Colton Smith2-0#393Trevor Svajda

Colton Smith to win

62%probability

Colton Smith won

Matched

Stefan Kozlov

6W 9L

6-3 2-6 7-6(10)#166Darwin Blanch

2-6 6-4 6-1#178Harry Wendelken

6-3 5-7 6-2#356Aidan Mayo

7-5 6-1#81Zachary Svajda

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#517Alan Magadan

6-4 6-4#642Roger Pascual Ferra

4-6 6-1 6-2#725Leo Vithoontien

6-3 3-6 6-4#273Yi Zhou

3-6 6-3 6-2#94Jacob Fearnley

6-4 2-6 6-4#113Yibing Wu

6-4 6-2#442Garrett Johns

7-6(3) 5-7 6-3#356Aidan Mayo

7-5 6-4#364Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-2 6-1#899Mario Mansilla Diez

6-2 2-6 6-0#275Nick Hardt

Colton Smith

7W 8L

1-6 6-4 6-2#97Hugo Gaston

7-6(2) 2-6 6-4#285Jerome Kym

4-6 6-3 6-4#144Andrea Pellegrino

7-5 5-7 6-2#211Felix Gill

5-7 7-6(4) 6-3#258Jay Dylan Hara Friend

4-6 6-2 6-4#642Roger Pascual Ferra

7-6(1) 6-3#218Jeff Wolf

6-7(1) 6-3 6-4#111Bu Yunchaokete

6-3 7-5#249Hayato Matsuoka

4-6 6-3 7-6(5)#184Andre Ilagan

6-4 4-6 6-2 6-3#92Michael Zheng

6-4 6-4#150Borna Gojo

6-3 4-6 6-3#206Andres Andrade

6-2 7-6(7)#139Jurij Rodionov

7-5 2-6 6-3#177Clement Chidekh

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SKStefan KozlovKozlov

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Colton SmithSmithCS

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In59.8%+1.3pp61.1%

1st Serve Won62.6%+5.4pp68.0%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+3.4pp47.5%

Aces / Match1.9+3.85.7

Double Faults / Match3.01.1 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.3%+3.1pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.1%+5.8pp38.3%

Break Pts Saved54.0%+6.3pp60.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.5%—49.4%

Serve · 2–3

59.8%1st Serve In+1.3pp61.1%

62.6%1st Serve Won+5.4pp68.0%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp47.5%

1.9Aces / Match+3.85.7

3.0Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

41.3%Return Pts Won+3.1pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

44.1%Break Pts Converted+5.8pp38.3%

54.0%Break Pts Saved+6.3pp60.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.5%Total Pts Won—49.4%

Stefan Kozlov

Colton Smith

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Stefan Kozlov

Stefan Kozlov

Stefan Kozlov 2-1

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Stefan Kozlov

Colton Smith

Stat Battle