Little Rock - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Andre Ilagan #335United States0Colton Smith #185United States2

Sets 3-6 · 5-7Sun 31 May 2026, 03:31 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions5–183%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageColton Smith · 150 places

Andre Ilagan

United States

25-year-old American left-hander. Public ranking pages place him around No. 335 in late May 2026, and most of his recorded singles volume has come on hard courts.

Current ranking: #335
Peak ranking: #332
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Colton Smith

United States

23-year-old American who reached a career high of No. 133 on 25 August 2025. Public surface splits show most of his lower-tier success has come on hard courts.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #133 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 May 2026, 04:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Colton Smith holds a 3-0 H2H advantage over Andre Ilagan, all in straight sets, and has had a lighter workload this week in Little Rock.

Smith's superior ranking, fresher legs, and strong first-set form make him the clear favorite, with a straight-sets win the most likely outcome.

Context

Ilagan won a three-set qualifying match against Yasutaka Uchiyama on May 25, then played main-draw matches on May 29 and May 30.
- Smith played only two main-draw matches, on May 27 and May 28, before his quarterfinal on May 30.
- Ilagan's quarterfinal went to three sets (7-6, 6-7, 6-3), adding further court time.
Smith won 6-3, 7-5 on outdoor hard in October 2024.
- Smith won 6-4, 6-3 on outdoor hard in July 2024.
- Smith won 6-2, 6-3 on indoor hard in June 2024.
Smith beat #325 Tyler Zink 6-4, 7-6 in the quarterfinal, and #348 Daniel Milavsky 6-3, 6-2 earlier.
- Ilagan needed three sets to beat #581 Aidan Mayo and #312 Yasutaka Uchiyama this week.
- Smith's last three wins were all in straight sets, while Ilagan's last four wins include three three-setters.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Colton Smith

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Smith's dominant H2H and fresher path through the tournament give him a clear edge, supported by higher ranking and consistent recent form.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Colton Smith

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Smith's dominant H2H first-set record and strong recent form make him the likely set 1 winner, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model estimate.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Colton Smith 2-0

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Smith's historical dominance in straight sets over Ilagan and his efficient recent wins suggest a high chance of a 2-0 victory.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Smith's dominant H2H and fresher path through the tournament give him a clear edge, supported by higher ranking and consistent recent form.
- H2H: Smith leads 3-0, all in straight sets on hard/indoor hard (2024).
- Recent form: Smith 7-3 in last 10, Ilagan 7-3 but with heavier recent workload (qualifying route).
- Ranking edge: Smith #185 vs Ilagan #335.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonColton SmithEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Smith's straight-set H2H wins and efficient recent scorelines point to a match under 22.5 games, though Ilagan's tendency for longer matches adds uncertainty.
- H2H match game totals: 21, 19, 17 (all under 22.5).
- Smith's recent Bo3 matches: 4 of last 5 wins had ≤22 games.
- Ilagan's matches often go longer (3 of last 5 over 22.5), but Smith's control may limit total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance50%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Smith's strong first-set record against Ilagan and overall recent form make him the likely set 1 winner.
- H2H: Smith won first set in all 3 meetings (6-3, 6-4, 6-2).
- Smith's first-set win rate in recent form: 8 of last 10 matches.
- Ilagan lost first set in 2 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonColton SmithEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Smith's historical dominance in straight sets over Ilagan and his efficient recent wins suggest a high chance of a 2-0 victory.
- H2H: All 3 meetings ended in straight sets for Smith.
- Ilagan's recent matches: 4 of last 5 wins went to deciding set, indicating vulnerability in closing.
- Smith's last 3 wins in Little Rock were straight sets.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonColton Smith 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and H2H history suggests a total under 5.5 is likely unless match extends to three sets.
- Double fault rates: Ilagan 3.3%, Smith 3.2% (career).
- H2H: Ilagan 7 DFs in 3 matches (2.3 avg), Smith 3 (1.0 avg).
- Recent matches: Both players average ~2-3 DFs per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-3 (3 meetings)

L6-3 7-5Andre Ilagan#335vColton Smith#185Oct 29, 2024

L6-4 6-3Andre Ilagan#335vColton Smith#185Jul 28, 2024

L6-2 6-3Andre Ilagan#335vColton Smith#185Jun 26, 2024

Colton Smith dominates (3 meetings)3 total meetings

Andre Ilagan

11W 4L

7-6(10) 6-7(4) 6-3#581Aidan Mayo

7-6(6) 3-1 ret.#551Enzo Aguiard

6-7(3) 6-4 7-5#312Yasutaka Uchiyama

6-3 6-7(2) 6-4#131Dane Sweeny

6-4 6-4#856Jason Jung

6-2 7-6(3)#417Hiroki Moriya

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#817Linang Xiao

6-2 6-3#166Bu Yunchaokete

4-6 6-4 6-2#234James McCabe

6-3 6-2#862Kody Pearson

6-1 6-4—Xing Dao Chen

6-7(0) 7-5 6-4#380Kasidit Samrej

6-4 6-1#219Liam Broady

6-1 3-2 ret.—Yuto Oki

7-5 6-3#363Yuta Shimizu

Colton Smith

6W 9L

6-4 7-6(4)#325Tyler Zink

6-3 6-2#348Daniel Milavsky

6-2 7-5#392Trevor Svajda

6-1 3-6 6-3#115Jaime Faria

7-5 6-1#262Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-4#213Laslo Djere

6-4 6-1#132Jack Pinnington Jones

6-3 6-3#158Jurij Rodionov

6-2 6-3#703Kei Nishikori

7-6(6) 6-1#375Garrett Johns

6-1 1-6 6-2#325Tyler Zink

6-0 6-3#60Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-7(6) 6-3 6-1#85Zachary Svajda

7-6(5) 7-5#103Sho Shimabukuro

7-5 6-1#92Yibing Wu