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Predictions graded

Enrico Dalla Valle #316Italy0Tom Gentzsch #166Germany2

Sets 4-6 · 6-7Tue 22 Sept 2026, 08:43 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions9–190%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTom Gentzsch · 150 places

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

Ranked No. 316, listed at 196 cm and playing right-handed with a two-handed backhand. All 15 tracked recent matches have come on clay.

Current ranking: #316
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

Ranked No. 166, listed at 191 cm and playing right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Thirteen of 15 tracked recent matches were on clay, the other two on hard courts.

Current ranking: #166
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Gentzsch is 150 places higher and better on clay, but Dalla Valle has taken 10 of 14 opening sets on the surface, so this first-round match may last.

Gentzsch is the likelier winner, though 1.65 for him to win, 1.65 for either set, and 2.4 for a 2-0 win do not justify the risk. Two reviewed prices do: more than 23.5 games at 2.1 and a deciding set at 2.3.

Context

Dalla Valle is the lower-ranked player here but the quicker starter on clay, having taken the opening set in 10 of his 14 tracked matches.
A first set for Dalla Valle would not settle the match: his 8-6 record in that window includes four 1-2 losses and only one 2-1 win, so he has struggled to close out matches he starts well.
- Dalla Valle won 10 of 14 opening sets and 9 of 14 second sets in completed clay matches between 5 July and 15 September
- His match record in that 14-match window is 8-6, with scorelines of 2-0 seven times, 1-2 four times, 2-1 once and 0-2 twice
- The set sample excludes one retired match; none of the six recent matches listed is a retirement
- On 15 September he lost in three sets to No. 432 Pavel Lagutin after taking the opening set 6-3
Gentzsch has won 9 of his 13 completed clay matches in this window, so one defeat is not a trend by itself.
The result matters mainly for timing. It is the freshest completed clay match on his record and it went the distance, so his recent form is not unblemished heading into this first round.
- On 18 September Gentzsch lost 3-6, 6-4, 3-6 to Luka Mikrut, ranked 239, in a completed clay match
- The match lasted three sets and 28 games
- It is the most recent completed match on his supplied record
Travaglia at 158 sits above Gentzsch at 166, so this is a win over an opponent of comparable or better standing.
One result does not make Dalla Valle favourite against a player 150 ranking places higher, but it shows he can beat someone of Gentzsch's level after dropping the first set.
- On 10 September Dalla Valle beat No. 158 Stefano Travaglia 6-7, 6-1, 6-4 in a completed clay match
- The match lasted three sets and 30 games
- Travaglia's ranking of 158 is above Gentzsch's 166

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Tom Gentzsch

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

−0.6ppshort

Gentzsch is 150 ranking places higher and has the stronger clay record and serve numbers over a similar number of matches.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Tom Gentzsch

1.65fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 60.6%

−4.6ppshort

Gentzsch's second-set record and stronger serve numbers give him a slight advantage if the match reaches a second set.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Tom Gentzsch

1.65fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 60.6%

−7.6ppshort

Gentzsch's ranking and overall clay set record give him a small edge in the opening set.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Tom Gentzsch 2-0

2.40fair 2.86

BetBugs 35% · Market 41.7%

−6.7ppshort

Gentzsch is favoured and takes close to 40% of his clay wins without dropping a set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Gentzsch is 150 ranking places higher and has the stronger clay record and serve numbers over a similar number of matches.
- Gentzsch is ranked 166 against Dalla Valle's 316
- Gentzsch is 9-4 on clay in his last 13 completed matches; Dalla Valle is 8-6 in 14
- Gentzsch has won 63.6% of his clay sets and 55% of his clay games
- Gentzsch wins 72.2% of first-serve points and saves 60.9% of break points on clay
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTom GentzschEstimated chance60%

Games5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Three and a half games is more than Gentzsch's average winning margin, and Dalla Valle's recent matches mainly stayed within that range.
- Gentzsch's clay games are 177 won and 145 lost across 13 matches, an average margin of about +2.5 per match
- Two of Gentzsch's four most recent clay matches finished with him four games behind
- Dalla Valle's last six clay matches included margins of -1, +6, +9 and +5
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonEnrico Dalla Valle +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's typical winning margin sits just above this line, which makes the handicap close to a coin flip.
- Gentzsch's average clay game margin across 13 matches is about +2.5
- His clay game record is 177-145
- Dalla Valle lost his most recent clay match by a single game
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTom Gentzsch -1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
The two players' clay matches average close to this line, with Gentzsch's matches sitting slightly above it.
- Gentzsch's 13 clay matches averaged 24.8 total games; Dalla Valle's 14 averaged 22.8
- Gentzsch's clay second sets average 10.8 games with six tiebreaks in 13
- Gentzsch has played 13 clay matches averaging 110.8 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's second sets regularly run past nine and a half games, often into tiebreaks.
- Gentzsch's clay second sets average 10.8 games
- Six of Gentzsch's 13 clay matches featured a second-set tiebreak
- Gentzsch's clay matches average 24.8 total games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average sits just above the line, mainly because of Dalla Valle's longer opening sets.
- Dalla Valle's clay first sets average 10.2 games
- Gentzsch's clay first sets average 9.3 games
- Dalla Valle has played four first-set tiebreaks in 14 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Gentzsch's second-set record and stronger serve numbers give him a slight advantage if the match reaches a second set.
- Gentzsch has won 9 of 13 second sets on clay
- Gentzsch's clay second sets average 10.8 games with six tiebreaks in 13
- Gentzsch wins 55% of his clay games overall
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTom GentzschEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A straight-sets finish is slightly the more common outcome in both players' recent clay records.
- Gentzsch won 2-0 in 5 of 13 clay matches
- Dalla Valle won 2-0 in 7 of 14 clay matches and lost 0-2 in 2
- Only 5 of Dalla Valle's 14 clay matches reached a deciding set
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Gentzsch's ranking and overall clay set record give him a small edge in the opening set.
- Gentzsch has won 8 of 13 opening sets on clay
- Gentzsch has won 63.6% of his clay sets overall
- Gentzsch is ranked 166 to Dalla Valle's 316
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTom GentzschEstimated chance53%

Prediction history

Tom Gentzsch: 7/9 recent winner projections matched

7 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Tom Gentzsch matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Tom Gentzsch9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch1-2#883Max Dahlin

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·62%

Missed

30 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch1-2#883Max Dahlin

Tom Gentzsch to win

62%probability

Max Dahlin won

Missed

28 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch2-0#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch2-0#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Tom Gentzsch to win

62%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#302Dali Blanch1-2#212Tom Gentzsch

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#302Dali Blanch1-2#212Tom Gentzsch

Tom Gentzsch to win

58%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

17 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-1#244Max Houkes

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·58%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-1#244Max Houkes

Tom Gentzsch to win

58%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

15 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#696Pieter De Lange

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·72%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#696Pieter De Lange

Tom Gentzsch to win

72%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

Previous match context available

Enrico Dalla Valle

8W 7L

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#432Pavel Lagutin

6-7(4) 6-2 7-6(5)#171Matej Dodig

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#158Stefano Travaglia

6-2 6-1—Gabriele Crivellaro

7-6(2) 6-2#318Oriol Roca Batalla

6-3 6-4#489Niels Mcdonald

7-6(2) 4-0 ret.#275Juan Bautista Torres

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#290Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-3#257Mika Brunold

6-3 7-6(3)—Mattia Logrippo

5-7 6-0 6-1#129Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#236Andrej Nedic

6-4 4-6 6-4#186Federico Agustin Gomez

6-1 6-1#884Ignacio Carou

6-3 6-0#1576Boris Arias

Tom Gentzsch

10W 5L

6-3 4-6 6-3#239Luka Mikrut

6-3 6-4#256Martin Krumich

7-5 6-7(3) 6-0#813Alan Wazny

6-3 7-6(1)#386Massimo Giunta

7-6(4) 6-4#201Francesco Passaro

7-5 6-3#210Pol Martin Tiffon

6-4 7-6(4)#284Jerome Kym

6-4 6-4#116Zsombor Piros

6-3 7-6(5)#238Henri Squire

6-1 1-6 6-1#208Chun Hsin Tseng

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#282Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 3-6 7-6(8)#896Max Dahlin

6-3 6-3#220Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#164Gauthier Onclin

4-6 6-2 6-0#236Andrej Nedic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EVEnrico Dalla ValleValle

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Tom GentzschGentzschTG

Enrico Dalla Valle carries the stronger recent form — Tom Gentzsch's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In63.9%+1.5pp65.4%

1st Serve Won75.6%+2.8pp72.8%

2nd Serve Won54.5%+5.4pp49.1%

Aces / Match4.9+2.06.9

Double Faults / Match1.52.4 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.8%+4.3pp40.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted43.8%+1.7pp42.1%

Break Pts Saved63.8%+1.0pp62.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.8%—52.0%

Serve · 3–2

63.9%1st Serve In+1.5pp65.4%

75.6%1st Serve Won+2.8pp72.8%

54.5%2nd Serve Won+5.4pp49.1%

4.9Aces / Match+2.06.9

1.5Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

35.8%Return Pts Won+4.3pp40.1%

Pressure · 2–0

43.8%Break Pts Converted+1.7pp42.1%

63.8%Break Pts Saved+1.0pp62.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.8%Total Pts Won—52.0%

Enrico Dalla Valle

Tom Gentzsch

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 23.5

Over 2.5

Tom Gentzsch

Tom Gentzsch

Tom Gentzsch

Tom Gentzsch 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games5 of 5 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Enrico Dalla Valle

Tom Gentzsch

Stat Battle