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Predictions graded

Jake Delaney #365Australia2Hikaru Shiraishi #522Japan1

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 6-4Tue 15 Sept 2026, 07:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJake Delaney · 157 places

Jake Delaney

Australia

Delaney, 29, is a right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached his career-best singles ranking of No. 354 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #365
Peak ranking: #354 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Hikaru Shiraishi

Japan

Shiraishi, 26, is a right-hander listed at 168cm. His career-best singles ranking is No. 421, reached in December 2025; available profile records list hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #522
Peak ranking: #421 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Delaney's superior recent form, first-serve dominance, and prior H2H win give him the edge over Shiraishi, though Shiraishi's career hard-court success keeps confidence medium.

Back Delaney on the moneyline at 1.80 for a 6.4-point value edge, and consider over 8.5 total aces given Delaney's ace rate.

Context

Delaney, ranked 365, has been in solid form on hard courts, winning 10 of his last 15 matches. Shiraishi, ranked 522, has a 7-8 record in the same span.
Delaney's recent results and serve numbers give him a clear edge. He averages 8.7 aces per match and wins 76.7% of first-serve points, while Shiraishi averages only 1.1 aces and wins 61.8% of first-serve points. Shiraishi's return game is slightly better, but Delaney's overall point-winning percentage is higher.
- Delaney last 15: 10-5 record, 66.7% win rate; Shiraishi last 15: 7-8 record, 46.7% win rate.
- Delaney averages 8.7 aces per match and wins 76.7% of first-serve points; Shiraishi averages 1.1 aces and wins 61.8% of first-serve points.
- Delaney wins 51.9% of total points; Shiraishi wins 49.3%.
The two players met once before, in October 2023 on hard court.
Delaney won that match 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-6(0). He served much better, with 21 aces to Shiraishi's 4, and won 71% of first-serve points. That serving edge could repeat, but the match was close and Shiraishi has improved since then.
- 2023 hard-court meeting: Delaney won 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-6(0).
- Delaney hit 21 aces and won 71% of first-serve points; Shiraishi hit 4 aces and won 63%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Delaney's stronger recent form and prior H2H win give him the edge, though Shiraishi's career hard-court success keeps this from being a high-confidence call.
- Last 15 overall record: Delaney 10-5 (66.7%) vs Shiraishi 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: Delaney 10-5 vs Shiraishi 7-8
- Career hard-court win percentage: Delaney 56.5% vs Shiraishi 63.5%
- H2H: Delaney won their only meeting 6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(0) on hard in 2023
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJake DelaneyEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive sets and tiebreaks in recent matches, suggesting a match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Delaney last 15 average games per match: 24.1
- Shiraishi last 15 average games per match: 19.7
- Combined average games per match: 43.8, but Bo3 matches often exceed 21.5 total games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players have often been close, with several tiebreaks, supporting an over on 9.5 games.
- Delaney last 15 first-set average games: 10.1
- Shiraishi last 15 first-set average games: 9.3
- H2H first set: 6-3 (9 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Delaney's stronger recent form and higher average games won suggest he could cover a -2.5 game handicap, but the margin is not large enough for high confidence.
- Delaney last 15 average games won per match: 12.7
- Shiraishi last 15 average games won per match: 9.9
- Delaney's recent opponents have been higher ranked on average
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJake Delaney -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Delaney's superior first-serve effectiveness in recent matches should help him start strongly, but Shiraishi's own first-set conversion rate is comparable.
- Delaney first-set win conversion career: 88%
- Shiraishi first-set win conversion career: 87%
- Delaney last 15 first-serve points won: 76.7% vs Shiraishi 61.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJake DelaneyEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreaks in recent matches and their only H2H had two, making a tiebreak in this match likely.
- Delaney last 15 matches: 6 tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Shiraishi last 15 matches: 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches
- H2H match included two tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Delaney's high ace count alone nearly covers the line, and Shiraishi adds a small contribution, making over 8.5 likely.
- Delaney last 15 aces per match: 8.7
- Shiraishi last 15 aces per match: 1.1
- Combined average aces per match: 9.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 2.5 double faults per match, so the combined total is likely to stay under 5.5.
- Delaney last 15 double faults per match: 2.4
- Shiraishi last 15 double faults per match: 2.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(0)Jake Delaney#365vHikaru Shiraishi#522Oct 13, 2023

1 total meetings

Jake Delaney

10W 5L

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#250Pavel Kotov

2-6 7-6(5) 7-6(6)#255Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#483Koki Matsuda

6-0 6-4#567Hyeon Chung

6-2 6-4#460Moerani Bouzige

6-3 7-6(2)#796Scott Jones

6-2 6-0—Jeremy Zhang

6-4 1-6 6-4#755Joshua Charlton

7-5 6-3#293Matthew Dellavedova

5-7 6-2 6-3—Duje Markovina

7-5 6-3—Taiki Takizawa

6-2 7-6(4)—Zachary Viiala

6-4 7-6(4)#896Daisuke Sumizawa

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(9)#760Matthew Hulme

4-6 6-3 6-4—Benjamin O'Connell

Hikaru Shiraishi

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#675Seongchan Hong

6-4 6-0#898Chan-Yeong Oh

6-3 6-3#691Yusuke Takahashi

6-3 6-2#888Ryota Tanuma

6-4 6-3—Saki Tange

7-6(1) 7-5#305Yanki Erel

6-3 1-1 ret.#616Kuan-Yi Lee

6-4 6-2#877Nitin Kumar Sinha

6-3 3-6 10-5#567Hyeon Chung

7-6(5) 6-4—Asahi Harazaki

3-6 6-4 6-2#679Isaac Becroft

6-1 6-0—Ethan David Zapp

7-6(2) 6-2#830Taiyo Yamanaka

7-6(4) 6-3#694Shinji Hazawa

6-1 6-1#851Shintaro Imai

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JDJake DelaneyDelaney

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Hikaru ShiraishiShiraishiHS

Jake Delaney carries the stronger recent form — Hikaru Shiraishi's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.8%+5.2pp61.6%

1st Serve Won76.7%+14.9pp61.8%

2nd Serve Won52.6%—52.5%

Aces / Match8.7+7.61.1

Double Faults / Match2.40.3 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.4%+4.6pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.0%+10.2pp48.2%

Break Pts Saved71.6%+19.2pp52.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.9%+2.6pp49.3%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

66.8%1st Serve In+5.2pp61.6%

76.7%1st Serve Won+14.9pp61.8%

52.6%2nd Serve Won—52.5%

8.7Aces / Match+7.61.1

2.4Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

35.4%Return Pts Won+4.6pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

38.0%Break Pts Converted+10.2pp48.2%

71.6%Break Pts Saved+19.2pp52.4%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won+2.6pp49.3%