ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Gerard Campana Lee #585South Korea2Carlos Taberner #409Spain1

Sets 5-7 · 7-6 · 6-4Tue 15 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCarlos Taberner · 176 places

Gerard Campana Lee

South Korea

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 318 on June 24, 2024. His professional schedule and results are predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #585
Peak ranking: #318 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Carlos Taberner

Spain

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 83 on 4 August 2025. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #409
Peak ranking: #83 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 22:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Campana Lee's superior recent clay form, return game, and a dominant 2024 H2H win make him a strong favorite.

The moneyline at 2.60 offers a 23.5-point edge over the model's 62% probability. Expect a competitive match with few aces but potentially high double faults from Taberner.

Context

Campana Lee, 526th, is a clay-court specialist with 125 career wins on the surface. Taberner, 418th, has a deeper clay history with 439 career wins but has been less consistent recently.
Campana Lee's 73.3% win rate over his last 15 matches, all on clay, gives him a clear form edge. Taberner's 50% record on clay in his last 12 matches, including a straight-set loss to Henrique Rocha, suggests he is more vulnerable. However, Taberner's career clay win percentage of 61.4% and higher ranking indicate he cannot be dismissed.
- Campana Lee last15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), all on clay.
- Taberner last15 clay record: 6-6 (50%), with a recent loss to Henrique Rocha (6-3 7-6).
- Campana Lee's recent wins include opponents ranked 455, 634, 426, and 564.
- Taberner's recent clay wins include opponents ranked 257, 407, 341, and 262.
Taberner, 26, is the away player in this Biella match and holds ATP No. 418. He returned to competition in August after a lumbar radiculopathy with two disc protrusions that kept him out for two to three months.
His recent return explains a shortened 2026 season and reduced competitive continuity entering this match. He has played five tracked matches since returning, winning two, and one ended in retirement, so his match sharpness may still be rebuilding.
- Taberner described the injury, absence and rehabilitation in August 2026.
- He was competing again by the US Open and is scheduled for Biella.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z against Jan Kumstat ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
ReportedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 22:09 · Europe/BucharestTaberner interview, August 2026as.com · 30 Aug 2026
Campana Lee's recent serve numbers show 69.1% first-serve points won and 50.5% second-serve points won. Taberner's numbers are 66.7% and 47.0% respectively.
Campana Lee's edge in total points won (52.8% vs 49.5%) and return points won (44.3% vs 40.2%) suggests he is controlling rallies better. Taberner's higher double-fault rate (4.7 per match vs 1.8) could give Campana Lee extra break opportunities. These differences are moderate but could decide close games.
- Campana Lee total points won: 52.8% vs Taberner 49.5%.
- Campana Lee return points won: 44.3% vs Taberner 40.2%.
- Campana Lee double faults per match: 1.8 vs Taberner 4.7.
- Campana Lee first-serve points won: 69.1% vs Taberner 66.7%.
The two players met once before, in May 2024 on clay, with Campana Lee winning comfortably.
That result gives Campana Lee a psychological edge, but it is a single match from over two years ago. Taberner's current form and ranking are different, so the head-to-head should not be over-weighted. Still, Campana Lee's ability to win 52% of return points in that match shows he can handle Taberner's serve.
- H2H: Campana Lee def. Taberner 7-5 6-1 on clay in 2024.
- In that match, Campana Lee won 52% of return points and converted 50% of break points.
- Taberner won only 33% of return points and 30% of second-serve points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Campana Lee's stronger recent clay form and superior return game, plus a dominant H2H win, give him the edge.
- Last 15 on clay: Campana Lee 11-4 record, 56.5% games won; Taberner 6-6 record, 53.4% games won.
- Campana Lee return points won 44.3% vs Taberner 43.1% on clay in last 15.
- H2H 2024 clay: Campana Lee won 7-5 6-1, winning 52% return points vs Taberner's 33%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGerard Campana LeeEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay matchup with both players holding serve reasonably well suggests a match extending beyond 21 games.
- Campana Lee last 15 clay average 21.0 games per match; Taberner 22.0.
- Both players have similar break point save rates (56.8% vs 64.1% on clay).
- Taberner's last 5 clay matches averaged 22.6 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched first-set dynamics and solid serving point to a set with at least 10 games.
- Campana Lee last 15 clay first set average 9.8 games; Taberner 9.6.
- Both players have first serve points won around 68-69% on clay.
- H2H first set was 7-5, indicating a tight opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Campana Lee's recent momentum and slightly better first-serve effectiveness support taking the opening set.
- Campana Lee first set win conversion career 81% vs Taberner 87%.
- Campana Lee last 15 clay first serve points won 69.1% vs Taberner 68.2%.
- Campana Lee recent form: won first set in 4 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGerard Campana LeeEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Campana Lee's stronger recent second-set performance and H2H dominance support him taking set 2.
- Campana Lee last 15 clay second set win rate 60% (9 of 15).
- Taberner last 15 clay second set win rate 50% (6 of 12).
- Campana Lee won second set 6-1 in H2H.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonGerard Campana LeeEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has a strong tiebreak tendency, and the matchup may be decided in regular games.
- Campana Lee tiebreak win percentage career 51%; Taberner 52%.
- In last 15 clay matches, Campana Lee played 2 tiebreaks, Taberner 3.
- Both players have moderate first serve points won, reducing tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server on clay, making a low total ace count likely.
- Campana Lee last 15 clay aces per match 2.3; Taberner 2.3.
- Combined average aces per match 4.6, below 5.5 line.
- Both players have moderate first serve percentages (57.5% vs 60.8%).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Taberner's high double fault rate on clay pushes the combined total above 6.5.
- Taberner last 15 clay double faults per match 4.1, significantly higher than Campana Lee's 1.8.
- Combined average double faults per match 5.9, close to the line.
- Taberner's second serve points won only 48% on clay, leading to more double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-5 6-1Gerard Campana Lee#526vCarlos Taberner#418May 13, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Gerard Campana Lee

11W 4L

6-2 7-5#455Juan Cruz Martin Manzano 6-3 6-1#634Gabriele Bosio

6-1 7-5#161Max Alcala Gurri

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#426Jonas Forejtek

6-2 6-3#564Lorenzo Carboni

6-2 7-5#900Filip Pieczonka

6-3 6-4—Valentin Basel

3-6 6-2 6-1—Jiri Cizek

7-6(2) 6-3#506Alex Marti Pujolras

5-7 7-5 6-2#650Theo Papamalamis

6-3 6-3#685Franco Ribero

6-1 6-1#359Gabriele Piraino

5-7 7-5 6-1#405Samuele Pieri

6-0 6-2#898Pietro Marino

6-3 6-2#662Stefan Horia Haita

Carlos Taberner

6W 9L

6-3 7-6(11)#118Henrique Rocha

6-3 3-6 6-2 6-2#37Zizou Bergs

7-5 ret.#186Jan Kumstat

6-7(5) 6-4 3-0 ret.#257Andrej Nedic

5-7 6-2 6-3#407Olle Wallin

7-6(4) 7-5#170Elmer Moller

3-6 6-3 6-3#341Marko Topo

6-2 6-0#262Juan Bautista Torres

6-4 6-1#272Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 6-0 6-3#89Lorenzo Sonego

6-3 6-2#98Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 3-6 6-3#453Ivan Gakhov

6-0 6-1#505Stefan Palosi

6-2 2-6 7-6(4)#144Tomas Barrios Vera

7-6(2) 6-3#175Zdenek Kolar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GLGerard Campana LeeLee

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Carlos TabernerTabernerCT

Gerard Campana Lee carries the stronger recent form — Carlos Taberner's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.5%+2.9pp60.4%

1st Serve Won69.1%+2.4pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won50.5%+3.5pp47.0%

Aces / Match2.3+0.32.0

Double Faults / Match1.82.9 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.3%+4.1pp40.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted51.3%+10.1pp41.2%

Break Pts Saved56.8%—57.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.8%+3.3pp49.5%

Serve · 4–1

57.5%1st Serve In+2.9pp60.4%

69.1%1st Serve Won+2.4pp66.7%

50.5%2nd Serve Won+3.5pp47.0%

2.3Aces / Match+0.32.0

1.8Double Faults / Match2.9 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

44.3%Return Pts Won+4.1pp40.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

51.3%Break Pts Converted+10.1pp41.2%

56.8%Break Pts Saved—57.4%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won+3.3pp49.5%